- Why I’m supporting the Carolina Panthers as home underdogs.
- Two NFC East teams to use in six-point teasers.
- The case for the Houston Texans vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Amongst the countless Week 4 NFL odds markets at the BetMGM Sportsbook, one option for bettors is a teaser.
Largely popular amongst recreational bettors, a teaser allows bettors to move multiple lines in their favor with varying payouts depending on the total legs.
NFL Betting Predictions: Best Week 4 Teaser Legs
Allow me to present my five best NFL Week 4 teaser legs in order of confidence.
Best NFL Week 4 Teaser Leg No. 1: Houston Texans +9
I covered the Texans +3 as part of my early Week 4 best bets, making it unsurprising I like them in a teaser.
By teasing the Texans up, bettors get through the key numbers of six and seven against a Steelers team that likes to play close games. Across the last two weeks, both of the Steelers’ games were decided by five points or less.
Conversely, Houston has looked better with each week. After two double-digit losses, they handled the Jaguars with ease.
Although buying high feels dangerous, I’m confident the Texans’ defense can limit Pittsburgh’s passing game and keep this game close.
Best NFL Week 4 Teaser Leg No. 2: Carolina Panthers +9.5
Both the Panthers and Vikings enter this game 0-3. If the Vikings can go on the road and win by 10 or more, tip your cap to them.
In their lone home game of the season, Carolina looked serviceable against the Saints. Now, they face a Vikings team I rate lower in quality than New Orleans.
Plus, all three Vikings games this season have been decided by single digits. Dating back to the beginning of last season, the Vikings have seen 16 of 22 games decided by nine points or less.
Put simply, the Vikings’ lackluster defense doesn’t allow them to race away with games. As a result, take the Panthers through two key numbers and trust them at home.
Best NFL Week 4 Teaser Leg No. 3: Green Bay Packers +7.5
This teaser leg not only gets bettors through three and seven but also counts against a historically profitable system.
Dating back to 2005-06, home divisional underdogs in the first six weeks of the regular season are 59.3% against the spread, per Bet Labs. They’re also 135-50 (73%) against a six-point teaser.
The Packers also present a clear mismatch for the Lions. Entering Week 3, Green Bay ranked second in pass offense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.
In Week 4, they face a Lions secondary that ranked 27th in the corresponding defensive category.
Based on that edge, I’m confident Green Bay can keep this within a touchdown, if not win the game.
Best NFL Week 4 Teaser Leg No. 4: Dallas Cowboys -1
From a spread perspective, I lean to the Patriots +7. However, the Cowboys are the pick for me when you tease them down to -1.
This gets you down through the key numbers of six and three while simultaneously allowing you to buy low on the Cowboys.
Dallas is much better at home under Dak Prescott. For his career, he’s 36-15 straight up at home, including 31-12 as a favorite.
Shrink the sample down to this season and the last two, and bettors will find the Mississippi State product is 12-3 straight up at home.
As a result, the Cowboys give bettors a clear edge at a reduced number.
Best NFL Week 4 Teaser Leg No. 5: Philadelphia Eagles -1
Philly should win the game at home, but the fact they’re playing a divisional opponent worries me ever so slightly.
Plus, Washington will have a rest edge over the Eagles, who travel home after a Monday night meeting in Tampa Bay.
Oddly, road teams dominated this head-to-head meeting last season. The Eagles won 24-8 in Washington before losing 32-21 at home.
Given Washington head coach Ron Rivera knows how to construct an effective gameplan, it puts me off just a touch. I also expect a low-scoring contest, making a sizable margin of victory less likely.
All that said, the Eagles won every home game by two last season, so laying a point in a six-point teaser ultimately feels relatively safe.
What’s a Teaser Bet & How Do They Work?
In a teaser bet, bettors select two or more markets in which they’d like to adjust the line. The most common adjustment is six points, though BetMGM allows players to move lines by any amount between six and 14 points.
However, bettors pay a premium to move the line through key numbers. In the NFL, these numbers are three, six, seven, 10, 14 and 17.
In a two-team, six-point teaser, bettors have to lay -130. In a three-team, six-point teaser, the price rises to +160.
Bettors can include as many legs as they want. But remember, all legs have to cash for the whole bet to win, making teasers with more teams inherently riskier.
With teasers, bettors should remember two things.
First, always tease through the key numbers. Second, never tease through zero.
My other recommendation is to focus on home teams. Some handicappers will utilize road teams in a teaser, but I’ve found visitors experience more volatile results.
Bettors should learn the BetMGM house rules associated with teasers pushing. If a leg pushes in a teaser with three or more legs, the leg is removed, and the odds are recalculated.
In a two-team teaser, if one leg pushes, the entire bet pushes and bettors are refunded their stake.
NFL Futures Betting at BetMGM
BetMGM is the premier destination for NFL futures throughout the year.
Whether you’re a new bettor browsing win totals in May, a casual fan placing a conference champion bet in August, or a longtime diehard breaking down division winner odds in October, there are options for everyone.
Sign in to your account today — or, if you don’t have an account, sign up today with a sportsbook welcome bonus — to start betting. And don’t forget to check updated sportsbook bonuses and promos each day of the year.