- Why I'm betting the Titans for the third straight week.
- The buy-low spot on a home divisional underdog.
- Read on for full analysis and best bets.
Save for Monday Night Football, Week 2 of the NFL regular season is in the books.
The second week proved more balanced than the first, with all but five games decided by seven or fewer points.
Until Sunday Night Football, bettors who slammed the over did very well. In the first 13 games, the over finished 12-1 against the closing number.
Now, we’re on to the Week 3 slate. Here’s a look at the current spreads and totals, as well as my two best bets.
| Week 2 Game | Spread | Total |
|---|---|---|
| 49ers vs. Giants (Thursday Night Football) | 49ers -10.5 | 45 Points |
| Browns vs. Titans | Browns -4.5 | 41.5 Points |
| Lions vs. Falcons | Lions -4.5 | 45 Points |
| Packers vs. Saints | Packers -1.5 | 43.5 Points |
| Dolphins vs. Broncos | Dolphins -6.5 | 48.5 Points |
| Vikings vs. Chargers | Chargers -1 | 53.5 Points |
| Jets vs. Patriots | Patriots -2.5 | 37 Points |
| Commanders vs. Bills | Bills -7 | 45 Points |
| Jaguars vs. Texans | Jaguars -9.5 | 44.5 Points |
| Ravens vs. Colts | Ravens -7.5 | 44.5 Points |
| Seahawks vs. Panthers | Seahawks -4.5 | 42.5 Points |
| Chiefs vs. Bears | Chiefs -13.5 | 49 Points |
| Cardinals vs. Cowboys | Cowboys -12.5 | 44 Points |
| Raiders vs. Steelers (Sunday Night Football) | Steelers -1.5 | 44.5 Points |
| Buccaneers vs. Eagles (Monday Night Football) | Eagles -6.5 | 46.5 Points |
| Bengals vs. Rams (Monday Night Football) | Bengals -3.5 | 44.5 Points |
NFL Week 3 Early Betting Predictions
NFL odds are reflective at the time of writing and subject to movement.
Tennessee Titans Spread (+4.5) at Cleveland Browns
I’ve bet the Titans each of the first two weeks and see no reason to stop.
From a matchup standpoint, the Titans defense presents a nightmare scenario for the Browns offense. Last season, Tennessee ranked first in rush defense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.
Given the Browns prefer to run the ball – they ranked eighth in the corresponding offensive category – I question how Cleveland can create margin in this game, even if they win.
In addition to that matchup element, this game fits a number of historically profitable betting systems.
Titans head coach Mike Vrabel is brilliant as an underdog, posting a 62.2% ATS record.
Give him three or more points as a dog, and bettors will find Vrabel is 71% ATS.
Additionally, underdogs in games with a total at or below 42 points are 57.6% ATS since 2018-19, including 7-4-0 ATS this season.
Bet the Titans at +3.5 or better.
New York Jets Spread (+2.5, -115) vs. New England Patriots
Trusting a Zach Wilson-led Jets team takes some intestinal fortitude. However, the Patriots have done nothing to impress me so far.
Through two games, New England is averaging two turnovers per game. Against a stout Jets defense – sixth in defensive DVOA in 2022 – the Patriots’ poor offensive record should continue.
If the Jets defense can limit New England, that clears the way for their offense to thrive. Although New England ranked fifth in defensive DVOA last season, they simultaneously finished 11th in rush defense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.
The matchup should get the ball out of Wilson’s hands, allowing the Jets ground game to excel against a Pats defense that allowed 145 rushing yards to the Dolphins.
Beyond those matchup trends, the Jets fit two historically profitable betting systems this week.
Teams off a loss of 20 points or more are 57% ATS in their next game. Additionally, home divisional underdogs in the first six weeks of the season are 59.4% ATS.
For those reasons, take the Jets +2.5 before it moves to +2.
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