2 NFL Week 3 Matchups to Watch Closely

The Week 3 NFL slate is riddled with matchups where bettors can gather new information.

A few are clear based on current data. For example, will the Ravens’ rushing success continue against Dallas? Additionally, who has the edge between Cleveland and Carolina through the air?

But hidden within a few matchups are key indicators for a unit’s future viability. Here are the two most intriguing ones to me based on current NFL odds.

2 NFL Week 3 Matchups to Watch 2026

Buccaneers vs Vikings: Bucs Rushing Attack vs Vikings Run Stop

Strength meets strength in this matchup based on two weeks of data. Tampa Bay ranks ninth in rush offense DVOA while Minnesota ranks second in rush defense DVOA.

That said, I don’t place much stock in Minnesota’s Week 1 run-stop performance. Marshawn Lloyd led the attack for Green Bay behind a bad offensive line.

From a pure percentage standpoint, Minnesota played better in Week 2 against Chicago. Their rush defense DVOA percentage rose from -35% to -42.8%.

However, Minnesota recovered a fumble at their own one-yard line. That turnover contributes to the DVOA percentage.

Tampa Bay posted positive rush DVOA percentages against both Cincinnati and Cleveland. Excluding turnovers, the Bucs’ rushing attack ranks eighth in success rate.

If Tampa Bay can run the ball effectively, the team could recover from a bad loss. If not, Tampa Bay is likely staring down a 0-3 start.

Lions vs Jets: Jets Passing Game vs Lions Secondary

Incredibly, New York ranks eighth in pass offense DVOA through two games. Detroit ranks 19th in the corresponding defensive category, largely due to myriad injuries.

New York’s success came mostly in Week 1 against Tennessee. While weather played a role, the pass offense DVOA percentage fell from +53.7% to +23.9% in Week 2 against Green Bay.

Detroit has played two outstanding passing attacks so far. Buffalo leads the NFL in pass DVOA through two weeks, while the Saints possess a strong WR1 in Chris Olave.

This game offers the easiest test for Kelvin Sheppard’s defense, in my estimation. The issue? Brian Branch, Kerby Joseph and Avante Maddox remain out with injury.

Could Geno Smith and Garrett Williams continue their success in Week 3? My guess is yes. Ultimately, it’s a good data point to consider for Detroit, which will be a favorite in three straight.