College Football Predictions & Best Bets for Week 8

Week 8 is here, and it feels like a classic week of college football handicapping for me. 

That’s because I don’t like much from the upper crust of FBS, but I do see plenty of favorable predictions and numbers throughout the wider pantheon of G5 games. 

This is what I have for now, but I’m still waiting to see a few more team totals later in the week. Make sure you come back in a day or two to see those predictions. 

East Carolina vs. Tulsa Prediction

In my opinion, this number is pretty off. Weeknight games trend toward unders to begin with, but the real market slant comes from the teams themselves. East Carolina and Tulsa are both strong under teams this season, with each squad posting a 5-1 betting record under the total so far this year.

ECU’s rush defense is the star of the show here, ranking fourth nationally in EPA/rush allowed. Tulsa, which has an anemic offense to begin with, should struggle to get much going on the ground. That will leave the Hurricanes looking awfully one-dimensional as East Carolina stretches its inevitable lead out.

I would make this number in the mid-to-high 40s, setting up a clear prediction on the under. I like the first-half under 27.5, too. 

Prediction: Under 54.5

Utah State vs. San Jose State Prediction

Utah State became one of my week-to-week targets when it plucked Bronco Mendenhall from New Mexico after last season. 

Unsurprisingly, the Aggies are out to a 3-3 start and have covered five of their first six games. (They’re also just two wins away from cashing the over on their win total of 4.5.)

The point spread here feels a bit light. Utah State’s run game is actually pretty decent, ranking among the top third of FBS offenses in EPA/rush. That ground attack should allow the Aggies to control the general pace of the game.

Beyond that, I don’t see San Jose State as a team that can compete closely against strong opponents, especially on the road. The Spartans lost games to Central Michigan, Stanford, and Wyoming. They needed a late fourth-quarter comeback to avoid a loss to FCS Idaho. I would make this USU -6.5.

Prediction: Utah State -3.5

Georgia Tech vs. Duke Prediction

Hey look, it’s an unranked favorite hosting a ranked (and undefeated!) underdog.

Yes, please. 

Prediction: Duke -125

Arizona State vs. Texas Tech Prediction

Big 12 fans are uncertain whether ASU quarterback Sam Leavitt will be healthy enough to play Saturday afternoon against Texas Tech, the preeminent conference favorite. But he didn’t play last weekend, and the Sun Devils got absolutely smoked in Salt Lake City, losing 42-10.

This Texas Tech team is excellent, a fact that the wider market hasn’t yet realized. If Leavitt doesn’t play, this -9.5 could be the easiest prediction of the year. 

But even if he does, I think there’s a case to pile on Texas Tech pretty much every week until the market starts fairly pricing their games. My guess is that might not happen for another two or three weeks.

Prediction: Texas Tech -9.5

Colorado State vs. Hawai’i Prediction

Hawai’i is back on the mainland for this tilt in Fort Collins, which perhaps explains why two-win CSU is a slight favorite over the five-win Warriors.

But I’m not buying it. Colorado State has one FBS win this year and, like SJSU, needed a late comeback to avoid an FCS loss to Northern Colorado. 

This number seems to be heavily reactive to last week’s 49-21 win over Fresno State – easily the Rams’ best performance of the season. CSU got an early lead and ran the ball down Fresno’s throat the entire first half, resulting in a hypernegative game script the Bulldogs just couldn’t escape from.

That feels more like a lucky dice roll than an honest representation of what CSU is every week. There’s also the historical context – Hawai’i is 3-1 straight up and 4-0 ATS against Colorado State over the last four years, with the Rainbow Warriors playing as dogs in all four games. Timmy Chang has had a lot of success against Jay Norvell, and I think that plays a factor in handicapping this game. 

Prediction: Hawai’i +2.5; Hawai’i +110