USC vs. Notre Dame: Prediction, Odds, Betting Preview

Notre Dame and USC will meet Saturday night in South Bend for the 93rd edition of their cross-country rivalry. NBC will have the game.

This may be the last chance for Notre Dame to score a signature win this season. Expect the Irish to show up and play well, as they often do against the Trojans when the game is in South Bend. (More on that in a minute.)

There are compelling angles for both sides of the game, as I’ll explain below. I’ve also got a betting prediction at the end. 

USC vs. Notre Dame Odds

• Point Spread: Notre Dame -9.5
• Moneyline: Notre Dame -350  |  USC +275
• Over/Under: 61.5

USC vs. Notre Dame Preview

To handicap this game, bettors must first answer a question: What is Notre Dame this year?

The Fighting Irish lost tight games against Miami and Notre Dame in the opening weeks of the season. Both of those teams remain undefeated in Week 8, so the losses are defensible. 

Since then, Notre Dame has mostly beat up on second-class teams: Boise State, NC State, Arkansas, and Purdue. 

USC is noticeably better than those four, but probably worse than the first two. Perhaps that means USC and Notre Dame are roughly equal opponents. 

If so, that might suggest the current point spread of 9.5 is a bit rich. Add in the fact that Lincoln Riley’s Trojans rank No. 1 in EPA/play and EPA/pass, and the backdoor is going to be open for the full 60 minutes with a number that big. 

Historically, the trends in this rivalry have favored Notre Dame football odds over the last 15 years. The Irish are 10-4 straight up (8-6 ATS) since 2010. It’s even more dramatic in South Bend games, where USC has lost six straight, covering only one of those games. The home team is 9-2 ATS over the last 11.

The history is a good nugget, but in my opinion, it’s not enough to justify laying north of a touchdown with a defense this average. Notre Dame is particularly ineffective up front, where its EPA/rush allowed ranks outside the top 80 teams in FBS. Expect a lot of Jordan Waymond. 

USC vs. Notre Dame Prediction

I am predicting Over 61.5 points in Saturday’s game between USC and Notre Dame.

I lean toward taking the points with USC here, but I think the strongest available element in this game is actually the total. The over has hit in three straight years, including last year’s 49-35 shootout win for Notre Dame. 

Both offenses run ahead of their defenses, and these two teams are playing annual shootouts that reach into the mid-60s or higher. Because of that, I’d rather play the over than take the points with USC. 

Prediction: Over 61.5; Lean USC +9.5