College Football Expert Picks: Week 3 ATS Predictions & Best Bets

It’s Sandwich Game o’clock in college football this weekend. Many prominent programs are playing lower-level opponents, with conference openers ahead of them and high-stakes non-conference opponents behind them. 

Targeting these ugly underdogs will be a recurring theme throughout some – but not necessarily all – of my Week 3 picks.

As usual, make sure you start with my early Week 3 NCAA picks column, which is structured to provide potential closing line value for any bettors taking an early look at college football spreads.  

Now, on to the main event.

Virginia vs. West Virginia Prediction

For some stupid reason, these teams from Charlottesville, VA and Morgantown, WV are playing a neutral-site game in Charlotte, North Carolina. There’s a perfectly good stadium for this right outside of DC! Sigh. I’m not bitter.

Rich Rodriguez and WVU fans are bullish on what Michael Hawkins brings to the modified speed option that the Mountaineers are once again running. But so far, we’ve seen only eight quarters of football – and only six quarters of good football – against lousy teams. West Virginia held on to beat Coastal Carolina in Week 1 and dominated UT Martin in Week 2. 

Does that tell us anything about how West Virginia will look against a competent opponent? Not really. And unfortunately for me – a WVU fan in a family of UVA graduates – I must concede that the Cavaliers look like a strong team this year.

Unlike last year, when the Cavaliers were a bit lucky to make it into the ACC Championship Game, this UVA team appears to have both the offense and the defense of a legitimate top-30 team. The acquisition of Beau Pribula gives UVA its best quarterback in many seasons.

West Virginia will have better crowd support in Charlotte, and it might hang around for a while. But in the end, I think UVA’s offense will pull away from a defense that isn’t anything special. I would lay the points before the UVA football odds market pops out beyond -10.

Prediction: UVA -10

Northwestern vs. Colorado Prediction

Every year, the market is too slow to adjust for decent college football teams. As I have explained through my offseason content and early picks columns, I’m convinced Colorado is one of those teams.

The market has been burned on Deion Sanders’ Colorado experiment before, which is part of the problem. But this year, Sanders and his new staff have carefully built a roster by scavenging good players from lower levels of football and bringing them to Boulder – you know, the way most successful middle-class P4 programs do. 

The early results speak for themselves, as Colorado went on the road in Week 1 and stunned Georgia Tech. Here, Colorado plays a Northwestern team that’s not as good as the Yellow Jackets and won’t have as intimidating a homefield advantage. 

Until the market adjusts on Colorado, I’ll be favoring the points and the moneyline with the Buffs.

Prediction: Colorado +3.5; Colorado +145

Texas vs. UTSA Prediction

Holy sandwich spot. Texas is in between its miracle win over Ohio State and next week’s SEC opener at Tennessee. In between, they’ve got to handle business against UTSA with a 30-point win margin. 

That alone is probably enough reason to take the points with UTSA and bank on a sleepy, sluggish 25-point win. But Texas is also 1-2 against AAC teams since 2018, plus a very middling 8-7 ATS since 2021 when laying 20 points. 

Consider last season’s 27-10 win against UTEP, or the 37-10 win against Rice in 2023. I think that’s roughly what Saturday’s game will look like. Take the points, and hold on for dear life. 

Prediction: UTSA +30

Kansas State vs. Tulane Prediction

This ain’t your slightly older brother’s Tulane team. The Green Wave are now led by Will Hall, who was a miserable head coach at Southern Miss and was somehow handed the keys to the Tulane machine after Jon Sumrall left for Florida at the end of last season. 

The dropoff has been immediate. Tulane played South Alabama in Week 2 – not exactly a stunning encore for the team that scored two P4 upsets last season. The recap in the New Orleans Times-Picayune will say that Tulane won 28-24, but the Green Wave were badly outplayed in most advanced analytical categories, including net success rate. 

Now, Tulane heads back to Kansas State, which has been a regular opponent in recent years, and the Wildcats have been humming under new coach Collin Klein. This has all the makings of a blowout, but the market is trying to hedge its bets with Tulane by making this only Kansas State -20.5. 

An appropriately reactionary market might look at this new version of Tulane and make this line closer to Kansas State -25.5. Instead, you’re getting a softer buy point on Kansas State, which feels like a gift. A month from now, everyone will have adjusted to Tulane and will understand how off this number is. 

Prediction: Kansas State -20.5

Missouri vs. Troy Prediction

Troy is a lousy early favorite and a great early dog, so I’m tempted to take the huge bucket of points with the Trojans right after Missouri’s noisy rivalry game against Kansas.

The even better play is the total. Troy’s conservative offense will struggle to score, but I do think the Troy defense can frustrate Mizzou for a little while in this game. The trends also favor a dog/under play here. Since 2016, Troy is 8-2 ATS in its road openers, but the under is an even better 9-1.

Finally, there’s the number, which is a friendly buy point at 49.5. Officially, I’m looking at an under, but in my opinion, this is a strong same-game parlay candidate.

Prediction: Troy/Missouri Under 49.5

College Football Week 2 Best Bets

• Virginia -10
• Colorado +3.5
• UTSA +30
• Kansas State -20.5
• Troy/Missouri Under 49.5