F1 Odds, Betting Picks: 2024 Chinese Grand Prix

Below are my best bets for the 2024 Chinese Grand Prix based on F1 odds. Max Verstappen is the heavy favorite after dominating the 2023 season with a record 16 victories.

• Date: April 22
• Time: 3 a.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Chinese Grand Prix Odds: Race Winner

• Max Verstappen: -500
• Sergio Perez: +800
• Carlos Sainz: +1000
• Charles Leclerc: +1000
• Lando Norris: +3300
• Oscar Piastri: +5000
• Lewis Hamilton: +5000
• George Russell: +5000
• Fernando Alonso: +6600

Chinese Grand Prix Prediction

Prediction: Both Aston Martin Drivers to Score Points – “Yes” (-110)

China hasn’t hosted a grand prix since 2019, but there’s a clear correlation with another circuit: Bahrain. 

Since the beginning of last season, Aston Martin have performed very well at Bahrain. 

Fernando Alonso (P9) and Lance Stroll (P10) earned points in the first race this season. Last season, they finished P3 and P6, respectively, at the Bahrain Grand Prix. 

Although China features one fewer DRS zone, the extra corner should benefit Team Aston Martin, which has done well at other power tracks. 

Since the beginning of last season, lead driver Fernando Alonso has scored points in all but three races. Those failures all came at high downforce circuits where Aston performed slightly worse. 

Effectively, that makes this a bet on Lance Stroll to score points for his team. 

Stroll only has two points finishes in four starts this season, but his DNF in Saudi Arabia – another power track – came after he qualified P10. 

Last season, Stroll crossed the line P10 or better in six of nine grand prix’s on true power tracks. 

As a result, I’ll take Aston Martin to have both drivers score points.

Chinese Grand Prix Prediction

Prediction: Carlos Sainz Podium Finish (-150)

Although it’s a steep price to pay, Sainz has finished on the podium in all three races in which he’s participated this season. 

Included in that sample is a P3 in Bahrain, the aforementioned correlative circuit to China. That marks two straight years Sainz has finished P4 or better in Bahrain. 

Although he failed to feature at the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix – another circuit with similar characteristics to China – Ferrari performed well at that circuit. 

Teammate Charles Leclerc crossed the line P3 in Jeddah, while Ferrari reserve driver Oliver Bearman finished P7. 

Even more encouraging – the gap between Ferrari and chasers McLaren and Mercedes is massive at these power tracks. 

At Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, Ferrari produced a +21.6 second gap and +13.7 gap to the next car. 

That tells me it’s highly unlikely one of the challengers will earn a podium spot. 

From there, I’ll take the more consistent prancing horses driver in Sainz, who has three podiums to Leclerc’s two this season.

Chinese Grand Prix Winners by Year

2024 F1 Schedule & Results

Teams & Drivers in 2024 World Championship