2 Best NFL Player Props for TNF: Ravens vs Jaguars

Baltimore will try to end a three-game skid behind Joe Fagnano in Ravens vs Jaguars on TNF.

Beyond side, total and moneyline markets, bettors also have access to myriad player props. Below, I’ve outlined my best player prop predictions for the showcase based on NFL odds.

Ravens vs Jaguars Prediction: TNF Player Props

Trevor Lawrence Over 232.5 Passing Yards (-115)

Bhayshul Tuten is questionable for Thursday’s game. It could force Liam Coen into a more pass-heavy game script against one of the most vulnerable secondaries.

Baltimore ranks 15th in pass defense DVOA at a 9.6% rating. However, the unit takes a massive step back when you exclude their Week 1 performance against Indianapolis.

Jesse Minter’s defense recorded a -52.5% pass defense DVOA rating in Week 1. Currently, the Colts rank 30th in pass offense DVOA.

Since Week 2, Baltimore’s pass defense DVOA rating rises to 18.5%. Only eight defenses are worse for the season.

The Ravens defense averages 241.9 passing yards allowed. It becomes worse when you consider Daniel Jones passed for 166 and Deshaun Watson threw for 164.

Jacksonville ranks fourth in pass offense DVOA for the season. It marks the second straight game Baltimore plays against a top-five pass offense.

Last week, Josh Allen threw for 289 yards. This season, Lawrence cleared this number three times with four 225+ games.

While a blowout concerns me – he threw for 210 in a 42-7 win over Indy last week – I predict the matchup allows Lawrence to clear a low benchmark.

Parker Washington Over 62.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

Washington recorded boom-or-bust metrics this season. He notched three 80+ yard games, a 64-yard output and three games under 40.5 yards.

Given what I just outlined about Baltimore’s secondary, I predict Washington bounces back from 16 yards against Indianapolis.

The fourth-year wideout caught only one pass off two targets against the Colts. However, for all of Indy’s problems this year, there’s still strength at corner when fully healthy.

I cannot say the same about Baltimore. Plus, Washington goes from facing one of the highest man-coverage defenses in the NFL to a more zone-heavy defense.

He has performed markedly better against the latter this season. Washington’s 2.27 yards per route run trails only Tuten amongst Jaguars pass catchers.

His 59.1% DVOA rating against the scheme leads all Jacksonville receivers. Across the entire NFL, that DVOA output places him 16th in the league.

Within Baltimore’s pass defense struggles this season, the unit has consistently surrendered yards to opposing receivers.

Of their 241.9 passing yards allowed, 177.6 traveled to opposing wide receivers. This places Baltimore 28th in wide receiver receiving yards allowed.

Accordingly, I like the buy-low opportunity on Washington in a favorable matchup.