Broncos vs. Titans: NFL Week 1 Odds, Prediction

A season removed from a surprise playoff appearance, the Broncos host Cam Ward and the Titans in Week 1. 

Denver earned 10 wins last season behind one of the league’s best defenses. However, Sean Payton & company’s title hopes were dashed in the wild-card round at Buffalo.

Tennessee finished 3-14 and earned the top pick in the NFL Draft. In picking Ward, Tennessee moved on from Will Levis on a team that covered the spread only 12% of the time last year. 

Bet on Broncos vs. Titans and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds. 

Broncos vs. Titans: NFL Week 1 Odds

Broncos vs. Titans Prediction

Based on the Broncos’ defensive success last season and Tennessee’s sneaky defensive record, my Broncos vs Titans prediction is the Titans Spread (+7.5, -110). 

Prior to last season, I usually stayed away from taking rookie quarterbacks on the road in Week 1. 

But Bo Nix and the Broncos proved those teams can cover big numbers. As a result, I’m inclined to fade the public’s perception of these teams and back Tennessee. 

For Broncos backers last season, everything proved peachy….especially as favorites. Bo Nix closed a market favorite eight times last season and covered in all eight games. 

Meanwhile, the Titans proved to be ATS disasters last season. Brian Callahan’s team covered only 12% of the time last season, the worst ATS mark since the schedule expanded to 17 games. 

Naturally, I expect a lot of moneyline parlays and six-point teasers will be tied to Denver because of those trends. 

But not only does history suggest it’s a good spot to back the Titans, but the matchup is actually okay on paper. 

Tennessee finished 17th in defensive DVOA last season, per ftnfantasy.com. In Week 1, they get a Broncos offense that finished 16th in the corresponding offensive category. 

The glaring edge is that Tennessee ranked 31st on offense while Denver ranked fourth on defense. But, defense generally proves more fluid year over year. 

Ward, even in his first NFL start, provides an instant upgrade over Will Levis. Additionally, there’s only room to grow for a Titans special-teams unit that finished 32nd last season. 

From a historical perspective, it has proven profitable to back bad teams from one season in the next. 

Since 2003, road teams between +4.5 and +9 with a total between 40 and 41.5 are 52-12 ATS (81.3%), assuming they earned 3-6 wins in the previous season. 

When those teams face a team that made the postseason the prior year: 22-5 ATS. 

As a result, I like the Titans so long as they stay at +7.5 or better in Week 1. 

Betting Broncos vs. Titans: NFL Public Betting

*Data is reflective as of Tuesday, July 8.*