Buccaneers Over Under Wins 2026 Prediction & Odds

Below, bettors can find NFL odds for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ 2026 win total and my Bucs win total prediction. 

Buccaneers Win Total Odds

The Buccaneers’ season win total is set at 8.5 games. 

Current odds price over 8.5 wins at +110 while under 8.5 wins is priced at -130.

Here are the 2026 NFL win totals for all NFC South teams:

• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 8.5 Wins
• Atlanta Falcons: 7.5 Wins
• New Orleans Saints: 7.5 Wins
• Carolina Panthers: 7.5 Wins

Buccaneers Win Total Prediction 2026

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 8.5 Wins (+105)

Based on current implied probability, the Buccaneers are predicted to finish under 8.5 wins with 56.5% confidence. Given two key departures from each side of the ball and close-game luck last year, I predict the Buccaneers finish Under 8.5 Wins (+105). 

Evans is gone from the offense in favor of San Francisco. Corner Jamel Dean left the Buccaneers for a contract in Pittsburgh. 

A lot of focus will go to Evans’ departure. But I would argue that Dean’s move to Pittsburgh leaves a bigger gap to fill. 

Last year, Tampa Bay relied heavily on turnovers to get off the field defensively, especially against the pass. 

Bowles’ defense finished 18th in dropback EPA per play and 27th in dropback success rate. On plays excluding turnovers, the unit falls to 21st in EPA while remaining 27th in success rate. 

The defense looked especially vulnerable without Dean. Even if you ignore the game against a high-powered Rams offense, Tampa Bay still allowed 35 to Seattle without their corner. 

Consider Week 18 against Bryce Young, too. Young posted a +0.211 EPA per play against the Dean-less Bucs on plays excluding turnovers. In Weeks 1-17: +0.138. 

Now the Bucs will have to contend without Dean for an entire season. They’ll do so in a weaker division while simultaneously facing a brutal schedule outside the NFC South. 

The entire division plays games against the AFC & NFC North. Tampa Bay gets unique games against the Rams, Cowboys and Chargers. 

If there’s a glimmer of hope for Tampa Bay, it’s that the more difficult games come on the road. Outside the division, the Bucs’ home opponents average a 9.3 win total vs. 9.9 on the road. 

More concerning is the matchup against opposing offenses. Outside the division, the Bucs project to face offenses that averaged a +2.9% offensive DVOA rating last year. 

Over a two-year period, the non-divisional opponents averaged a +3.5% offensive DVOA rating! 

What about those teams’ pass offense DVOA average over the last two years? All 11 opponents outside the division averaged a +19.4% pass offense DVOA rating since 2024. 

Asking the defense to hold steady against that schedule is a very difficult task. It’s even more concerning when you learn only six teams forced more turnovers last season. 

That’s all before noting the Bucs ran extremely lucky in close games last year. Tampa Bay finished 6-3 in games decided by a field goal or less last season. 

Four of those six wins came in the first six weeks of the season. In fact, Tampa Bay started 3-0 despite winning those three games by only six total points. 

If the offense takes a step back without Evans, it could expose a bad defense against a brutal schedule. Based on those factors, I predict the Bucs will finish under this benchmark.