NFL Expert Picks for Super Bowl 60: Patriots vs Seahawks

Below, bettors can find my NFL betting predictions for Super Bowl 60 based on NFL odds at BetMGM. 

Eleven years later, the Super Bowl features the Patriots vs the Seahawks in a rematch. Both teams finished the regular season 14-3 and have two NFL Coach of the Year candidates. 

A win by Seattle would be the first for the franchise since the 2013-14 season. For New England, it’s a chance to win a seventh Super Bowl and break the tie with the Steelers.

Let’s dive into the selections. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

NFL Playoff Predictions: Super Bowl 60

Seahawks vs Patriots Prediction: Total Under 46 Points (-110)

Based on New England’s pressure tendencies and the strength of Seattle’s defense, my Patriots vs Seahawks prediction is the Total Under 46 Points (-110). 

Neither team should see much success running the ball in this game. 

New England’s rush defense has returned to initial levels since Milton Williams returned to the lineup. Even against good rushing attacks, New England performed well with Williams. 

Neither James Cook nor De’Von Achane saw much success against New England early in the year. By rush offense DVOA, Seattle offers a fairly easy test. 

Although Seattle ran the ball well recently, the success largely came against a bad 49ers run defense. In the NFC Championship, Seattle managed only 2.9 yards per attempt. 

Then there’s the Seattle rush defense, which ranks first in the NFL in rush DVOA. Save for games against Indianapolis and the Rams, the unit held up very well. 

For the season, New England ranked 21st in rush offense DVOA. 

My belief is that’s going to place both offenses into lengthy third downs. Both quarterbacks are going to face issues in those situations. 

New England has begun sending blitz after blitz after blitz during the postseason. Sam Darnold has struggled against pressure, ranking 15th in PFF’s passing grades against pressure. 

As for Drake Maye, his issue is that he posted concerning metrics against comparable pass defense. 

Maye’s worst PFF rating of the year came in the divisional round against Houston. The Texans defense offers the closest comparison to Seattle’s unit, which led the league in pass DVOA. 

While New England managed 28 points in that game, the defense scored a touchdown and forced five turnovers. Additionally, the offense reached the red zone only once. 

Given time to prepare, Seattle should produce a strategy to disrupt New England’s offense. If that proves true, I question how both teams score enough to produce a higher-scoring game. 

Rhamondre Stevenson Under 50.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

Based on Seattle’s strength against the run and the presumed negative game script for New England, I predict Stevenson finishes Under 50.5 Rushing Yards (-110). 

Volume has lifted Stevenson over this number in two straight games. However, he needed 25 attempts to reach 71 yards in Denver. 

Put simply, Stevenson has yet to face a rush defense on Seattle’s level. Seattle’s -27.2% non-weighted rush DVOA rating outpaces second by as big a gap between second and sixth. 

Seattle has achieved that rating while facing six games against top-nine rush DVOA offenses. Plus, it’s a strong buy-low spot after the unit allowed 94 to Blake Corum and Kyren Williams. 

Before adjusting for opponent strength, Seattle surrendered only 73.5 yards to running backs on average. 

Prior to his playoff successes, Stevenson cleared this number only five times in 14 regular-season games. 

Against the league’s best run defense, I predict he stays under a low bar.

Austin Hooper Longest Reception Over 7.5 Yards (-115)

Based on Seattle’s record against tight ends and Hooper’s record against two-high zone coverage, I predict Hooper finishes Over 7.5 Yards (-115) as his longest reception. 

Even though Seattle finished first in pass defense DVOA, there is a path to exploit the defense. Entering Super Bowl 60, Seattle ranks 16th in DVOA against tight ends. 

At 64.2 yards per game allowed to opposing tight ends, Seattle bests only four other teams. Recently, the defense has continuously allowed long receptions to tight ends. 

Colby Parkinson cleared this line easily (40). Even Jake Tonges (16) came within a half yard. Since Week 14, at least one tight end has cleared this line four times in seven games. 

Hooper did not record a reception against Denver and failed to see a target. However, he reeled off a 14-yard reception against Houston in the divisional round. 

Seattle and Houston both run zone-heavy coverage schemes, whereas Denver deploys a high rate of man coverage. 

This season, Hooper enjoyed better results against the former scheme, particularly two-high. His eight receptions against two-high zone went for 109 yards. 

Irrespective of zone scheme, Hooper recorded 17 receptions for 219 yards. Against a low benchmark, I predict he clears this line for the second time in three games.

Kenneth Walker Under 73.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

New England’s rush defense has returned to normal levels since Milton Williams re-entered the lineup. 

Williams missed six games starting with Week 12. Over that timeframe, New England fell to 25th in rush defense EPA per play and 27th in rushing success rate. 

Before that window, the defense placed fourth and seventh in those categories. Even when you consider their performances against good running backs, the results are quite encouraging. 

James Cook managed only 49 yards against New England. For the season, Buffalo ranked second in rush offense DVOA. 

Walker cleared this benchmark in two of his three previous games. 

However, both successes came against a 49ers rush defense that – for the season – ranks eight spots behind New England in rush defense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

For the season, Seattle ranks 14th in rush offense DVOA and 21st in adjusted line yards. 

Lastly, only six teams ranked behind Seattle in the percentage of runs in which the back is tackled at or behind the line of scrimmage. 

New England, even including Williams’ absence, ranks 13th in the corresponding defensive category. Given those factors, I predict Walker stays under a high figure. 

TreVeyon Henderson Longest Reception Over 0.5 Yards (-118)

Henderson’s Super Bowl props offer a unique handicapping challenge. 

All three of his major receiving props – receptions, yards and longest reception – are set at 0.5. The former prop, however, is juiced to -175 while the other two are -115 and -118. 

For this exercise, I’m operating as if Henderson catches at least one pass. The question from there: Does that reception go for positive or negative yardage? 

I elected for the longest reception because Henderson could receive multiple chances. Seattle leads the NFL in passes to opposing running backs (7.6), per ftnfantasy.com. 

Of the backs who caught a pass against Seattle, only two stayed under this line: Nick Chubb and Blake Corum. 

Both proved to be inexperienced pass catchers this year, receiving 20 targets apiece. By comparison, Henderson racked up 42 targets. 

Plus, the rookie excelled against zone coverage, particularly two high. In his 24 targets against two-high, he found himself “open” or “wide open” on 96% of his routes. 

This year, seven teams ran two-high zone coverage at a 51% rate or higher. Henderson faced five games against those teams and finished 4-1 to over 0.5 longest reception. 

The lone failure? A 38-10 win over Miami in Week 18 when he didn’t catch a pass. Given those factors, I predict he clears this line against Seattle.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba Anytime Touchdown (-115)

Part of me hates that Smith-Njigba leads all players in bets percentage to score a touchdown based on NFL public betting. 

That said, I rate the Patriots pass defense as the worst unit on the field. Additionally, they’re relatively inexperienced in facing top wide receivers. 

New England ranks 15th in non-adjusted pass DVOA. AFTER accounting for opponent adjustments, the Patriots drop to 25th in the league. 

The Patriots run man coverage at one of the highest rates in the league. Per PFF, Smith-Njigba leads the NFL in receiving grade against man coverage. 

Five NFL receivers, including Smith-Njigba, notched at least 28 receptions against man this year. New England faced only one of those five. 

Zay Flowers torched New England for seven receptions and 84 yards. Although he failed to receive a touchdown, he ran one in from 18 yards out. 

Additionally, New England has surrendered a pair of passing touchdowns in three postseason games. Across all 20 games, New England allowed 1.35 passing touchdowns per game. 

The unit also ranks 31st against WR1s by DVOA. Courtland Sutton, DK Metcalf and Drake London (3) all found the end zone against the Patriots. 

Given those factors, I predict Smith-Njigba finds the end zone for a third straight game.

Rhamondre Stevenson Longest Rush Under 11.5 Yards (-105)

The more I think about Super Bowl 60, the more I think New England sees minimal success running the ball. 

After some initial struggles against the run, Seattle began dominating opposing rushers. Christian McCaffrey and Kenneth Gainwell cleared this line in Seattle’s first two games. 

Trey Benson and Rachaad White cleared it by the hook in Week 4 and 5. From Week 6 onward, only five running backs cleared this line against Seattle. 

That includes successes against Bijan Robinson (11) and Jonathan Taylor (11). 

Two of those failures by Seattle’s defense came against the Rams, which led the NFL in rush offense DVOA. By comparison, New England enters the Super Bowl ranked 21st. 

That renders this game a strong sell-high spot on Stevenson, who has cleared this line in seven straight games. However, in his first 10 games of the year, he surpassed it three times. 

Stevenson successfully cleared 11.5 against both Houston and Denver, which rank second and third in rush DVOA. However, it came in a positive game state for the Patriots. 

By yards per attempt, New England produced its best record on power rushes, notching 7.4 yards per attempt. However, Seattle ranks fifth in the corresponding defensive category. 

Given those factors – and the movement toward the under on Stevenson’s rushing yards prop – I predict he stays under his longest rushing attempt.

NFL Playoff Picks Against the Spread: Consensus Picks

Find NFL public betting data for Super Bowl 60 regarding both bets placed and money wagered percentages.