Chargers vs. Chiefs: NFL Week 1 Odds, Prediction

  • The Chargers are a 2.5-point neutral-site underdog against the Chiefs.
  • The Chiefs have won each of their last eight season openers against AFC opponents.
  • My Chargers vs. Chiefs prediction is for Kansas City to cover the spread.

This yearโ€™s Brazil NFL matchup sees two AFC West rivals โ€“ the Chiefs and Chargers โ€“ face off in Sao Paulo.ย 

Kansas City is coming off a 15-win season, finishing four games ahead of the Chargers in the AFC West. The Chiefsโ€™ three-peat bid ended in Super Bowl 59 in blowout fashion against the Eagles.ย 

Los Angeles reached the postseason in Jim Harbaughโ€™s first season. After a wild-card round loss, the Chargers find themselves amongst the top choices in the Super Bowl odds.ย 

Bet on Chargers vs. Chiefs and other NFL matchups with up-to-date NFL odds.ย 

Chargers vs. Chiefs: NFL Week 1 Odds

Sep 5 - 7 pm EST

Chiefs vs. Chargers

Chargers vs. Chiefs Prediction

Based on Patrick Mahomesโ€™ record as a short favorite and Justin Herbertโ€™s recent struggles as an underdog, my Chargers vs. Chiefs prediction is the Chiefs Spread (-2.5, -120).ย 

The moment this line came out, it struck me as a bit disrespectful to the Chiefs.ย 

While fully acknowledging these teams are closer than last yearโ€™s four-win gap suggests, Mahomes is 15-8 ATS when listed between -3 and a PK.ย 

The last time these teams met, Kansas City closed a 4.5-point favorite at home.ย 

Both teams experienced loads of turnover this offseason, but is the change to a neutral site really worth two points? Iโ€™d argue the answer is no.ย 

For the Chargers, I worry about the offense after Joshua Palmerโ€™s departure. It leaves Ladd McConkey on an island for a team that posted better passing metrics last season.ย 

The Chargers finished eighth in pass offense DVOA last season compared to 21st in rush offense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com.ย 

Adding Najee Harris at running back and Mekhi Becton at guard could easily change those metrics.ย 

At the same time, the Chargers lost a number of defensive personnel responsible for a ninth-place DVOA rating last season.ย 

Joey Bosa, Kristian Fulton, Morgan Fox and Poona Ford are all with new teams. That could leave Los Angelesโ€™ defense vulnerable against a strong Chiefs offense.ย 

Since 2018, Kansas City has finished eighth or better in offensive DVOA every season.ย 

Pair that with the fact Herbert is 2-6-1 ATS in his last nine starts as an underdog, and I prefer the Chiefs to cover in Brazil.ย 

Betting Chargers vs. Chiefs: NFL Public Betting

*Data is reflective as of Tuesday, July 8.*

TeamBets% (ATS)Money% (ATS)Bets% (ML)Money% (ML)
Chiefs55%62%58%67%
Chargers45%38%42%33%

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About the Author

Nick Hennion

Read More @nickhennion

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.