NFL Expert Picks Week 18: Carolina Covers in Tampa Bay

Below, bettors can find my NFL betting predictions for Week 18 based on NFL odds at BetMGM. 

The slate features a few notable contests for division titles. Ravens vs Steelers gives the winner the AFC North, while Bucs vs Panthers decides the NFC South. 

Elsewhere, the Bears try for revenge against the Lions, who are trying to avoid an 8-9 season. Additionally, the Jaguars can clinch the AFC South title with a win over the Titans. 

Let’s dive into the selections. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

NFL Week 18 Predictions

Buccaneers vs Panthers Prediction: Panthers Spread (+3, +100)

Based on Baker Mayfield’s poor play of late and the Panthers’ positive underdog trends off a loss, my Buccaneers vs Panthers prediction is the Carolina Panthers Spread (+3, +100). 

The Bucs are simply broken at the moment. Not since Week 8 has Todd Bowles’ team covered the spread in a game, so I’m shocked they’re sitting on a key number. 

Only once this season has Tampa Bay covered this number in a divisional contest. That came in Week 8 against New Orleans, despite only 212 yards of offense. 

Carolina, despite a bad loss to Seattle on Sunday, remains a viable underdog. This season, Dave Canales’ team has proved particularly good as dogs off a loss. 

Through seven games off a SU defeat, the Panthers are 7-0 ATS as market underdogs. Two of those games saw the Panthers go on the road after a 10+ point loss at home: 2-0 SU & ATS. 

Additionally, Carolina has the corner strength to mitigate Tampa’s receivers. Accordingly, I will be surprised if Baker Mayfield replicates his 346-yard performance in Miami. 

The defense also lacks answers for Carolina’s passing game. That, in my estimation, renders this game a strong buy-low spot on Bryce Young’s 54-yard outing against Seattle. 

Steelers vs Ravens Prediction: Ravens Spread (-3.5, +100)

Based on the offensive injuries for the Steelers and Baltimore’s significant defensive improvements, my Steelers vs Ravens prediction is the Ravens Spread (-3.5, +100). 

D.K. Metcalf is suspended, Calvin Austin III could miss the game and Darnell Washington broke his arm in Cleveland. 

For Baltimore, the strategy here is simple: load up the box, force third and long and make the Steelers throw a downfield pass. 

Washington’s absence is the biggest detriment to the Steelers. This season, Pittsburgh is 6-1 when he plays over 40 snaps vs. 3-7 when he doesn’t. 

Of course, it’s a slight concern that one of those wins was a 27-22 win at Baltimore. But the Steelers also had Metcalf, who accounted for 52% of Aaron Rodgers’ passing yards. 

As a team, the Steelers managed only 34 rushing yards in Baltimore, which ranks ninth in rush defense DVOA. 

With those skill players absent, I’ll be stunned if the Steelers manage to score, barring a fluky defensive touchdown. 

In terms of the Ravens offense, they can only stop themselves. John Harbaugh appears to have learned his lesson from sitting Henry for the final 12 minutes against New England. 

Pittsburgh should be better with Derrick Harmon in the lineup, but Henry’s volume is what concerns me in this game. 

Plus, the Ravens get an extra day of rest for Sunday’s game. That should help the offense against Pittsburgh, which has faced the 25th-hardest set of offenses. 

While it’s worrisome to bet against Mike Tomlin as a dog, I question how Pittsburgh’s offense moves the ball. Accordingly, I predict Baltimore covers the spread.

Jaguars vs Titans Prediction: Jaguars 1Q Over 6.5 Points (-160)

Based on Jacksonville’s recent offensive improvements and their advantage over Tennessee’s secondary, my Jaguars vs Titans prediction is the Jaguars 1Q Over 6.5 Points (-160). 

Trading for Jakobi Meyers has completely transformed Liam Coen’s offense. 

Up until Week 9, the Jaguars ranked 21st in EPA per play and 20th in success rate. Through the air: 24th and 28th. 

From Week 10 onward, Jacksonville ranks 12th and 15th in the overall categories, including fifth and fourth through the air. 

Within that latter sample, Jacksonville has excelled in the first quarter. The team ranks second in 1Q dropback EPA per play and has averaged 8.25 first quarter points per game. 

Sunday at Indianapolis ended a seven-game stretch where the offense failed to score at least seven points in the first quarter. 

But the Titans offer a significantly easier test than the Colts secondary. Indy enters Week 18 ranked 14th in pass defense DVOA while Tennessee ranks 28th, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Now the team is at home, where they have previously excelled. Here are Jacksonville’s points outputs after a quarter with Meyers: seven vs the Chargers, 14 vs Indy and 14 against the Jets. 

Accordingly, I predict the Jags offense starts fast against a bad defense. 

NFL Week 18 Picks Against the Spread: Consensus Picks

As of Sunday morning, the Week 18 slate features two teams receiving over 80% of bets placed to cover the spread:

• Buffalo Bills (-8) vs. New York Jets: 86% of bets placed
• Los Angeles Rams (-13.5) vs. Arizona Cardinals: 85% of bets placed

For Ravens vs Steelers on SNF, disagreement exists between bets placed and money wagered.

Mike Tomlin’s Steelers have attracted 56% of bets placed to cover the spread, but 53% of money wagered backs the Ravens to cover -3.5.

Get all NFL public betting data on all Week 18 games for both bets placed and money wagered percentages. Additionally, betting splits for the Super Bowl odds at BetMGM.