NFL Expert Picks Divisional Round: Seahawks Cover vs. Niners

Below, bettors can find my NFL betting predictions for the divisional round based on NFL odds at BetMGM. 

The NFC divisional contests begin Saturday in Seattle with Seahawks vs 49ers. On Sunday, it’s Bears vs Rams from Soldier Field as Chicago goes for a second straight win. 

In the AFC, Buffalo travels to Denver after a win over the Jaguars on Saturday. Then, the Patriots will host the winner of Steelers vs Texans on MNF. 

Let’s dive into the selections. Odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement. 

NFL Playoff Predictions: Divisional Round

Seahawks vs 49ers Prediction: Total Under 45.5 Points (-110)

sed on San Francisco’s offensive struggles against the Seahawks and Robert Saleh’s semi-trustworthy defense, my Seahawks vs 49ers prediction is Under 45.5 Points (-110). 

Hindsight informs us that the Eagles defense was overrated in its matchup with the Niners. I carry significantly more faith in the Seahawks defense (-28.5% in weighted DVOA). 

Comparatively, the Eagles posted -13% weighted DVOA rating.

San Francisco averaged 10 points per game against the Seahawks during the regular-season meetings. They’ll also operate without George Kittle, further hampering the offense. 

Kittle also missed the Week 18 contest as the Niners staggered to three points. Now, they get a rested Seahawks defense that directly mitigates its offensive strength. 

San Francisco ranked second in pass offense DVOA, but faces a unit that led the league. Plus, Seattle has rarely looked bad defensively at home when operating at full strength. 

Seattle allowed 37 to the Rams, a historically strong offense by DVOA. While they surrendered 35 to Tampa Bay, Seattle played without both Julian Love and Devon Witherspoon. 

At the same time, I remain concerned about Seattle’s offense. 

The unit has turned into a run-heavy unit, evidenced by 180 yards against San Francisco in Week 18. 

San Francisco, despite overwhelming injury issues, still possesses a corner (Deommodore Lenoir) that can hang with Jaxon Smith-Njigba. 

Presumably, Seattle’s defensive strength will further emphasize the run and burn clock. If Seattle is the lone contributor to the total, I question how a high-scoring game materializes. 

Seahawks vs 49ers Prediction: Seattle Seahawks Spread (-7, -118)

Based on Seattle’s defensive success in Week 18 and their advantage against San Francisco’s defense, my Seahawks vs 49ers prediction is the Seahawks Spread (-7, -118). 

It feels disgusting laying this many points with a middling offense. That said, I find the Week 18 margin between these teams flattering for the 49ers. 

Seattle won 13-3 as 2.5-point road favorites. However, the Seahawks finished 0-for-3 in the red zone. 

On the opening drive, Seattle turned the ball over on downs from the 49ers four-yard line. Later in the game, Jason Myers hit the upright from the eight-yard line. 

San Francisco owns one of the worst defenses left in the playoffs. During the regular season, Robert Saleh’s unit ranked 27th in DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

By EPA per play, Seattle produced its best game at Washington. Only a spot separates Washington from the 49ers in that metric. 

Seattle also scored 27 against a Panthers defense five spots ahead of San Francisco. Heck, this team scored 27 at home against a Houston defense regarded as one of the best in the NFL. 

My belief is that San Francisco’s lone path to a cover is a backdoor variety. However, this offense turned in its worst yardage output of the season in Week 18. 

I’m obligated to mention Trent Williams missed that game. However, is Trent Williams playing in exchange for George Kittle’s absence a net positive? 

By EPA per play, San Francisco turned in its worst offensive effort of the season in Week 18. Not enough has changed for me to believe that record will improve.

Pair those offensive trends with San Francisco’s defensive weakness, and I predict Seattle covers as home favorites. 

Bears vs Rams Prediction: Rams 1H Over 1.5 Touchdowns (-140)

Based on Chicago’s slow starts and the defensive mismatch against the Rams offense, my Bears vs Rams predictions is the Rams 1H Over 1.5 Touchdowns (-140). 

I’ll begin with a case for optimism for Bears fans: the (presumed) game script benefits another comeback effort. 

That being said, the Rams offense should eviscerate Chicago’s defense early. In the wild-card round, Green Bay scored 21 first-half points against Chicago. 

In Week 17 at San Francisco – the closest comparison to LA’s offense – the Bears surrendered 28 first-half points. 

Chicago has now played six games against teams sixth or higher in pass offense DVOA. Here are their points allowed in the first half: 28, 14, 6, 28, 13, 21. 

That lone “success” came at home against the Packers with Josh Jacobs banged up. Even scarier is that the Rams offense leads that group in offensive DVOA. 

During the regular season, Chicago ranked 25th in defensive DVOA (+6.2%). 

Not since Week 10 have the Rams played a defense ranked 24th or worse in defensive DVOA. In a visit to the 49ers, Los Angeles scored 42 against the 49ers, including 21 in the first half. 

Last week, Sean McVay’s offense racked up 17 first-half points against a “better” Panthers defense (22nd in DVOA). 

Irrespective of opponent, the Rams averaged 15 first-half points per game this season. Conversely, Chicago allowed 12.5. 

But the Rams achieved that feat against a significantly harder schedule. Accordingly, I predict the offense starts fast in Chicago. 

Patriots vs Texans Prediction: Total Under 41.5 Points (-118)

Based on New England’s matchup advantage on defense and the offense’s lack of experience against good defenses, my Patriots vs Texans prediction is Under 41.5 Points (-118). 

New England directly mitigates the efficiency of Houston’s past offensive performances.  

When the run game is working, so is the Texans offense. All of Houston’s best offensive outputs by points came when the rushing attack clears 100 yards. 

Here, Nick Caley’s unit faces a unit that has played remarkably well against the run. Save for a spell with Milton Williams sidelined, New England ranks amongst the best run-stop units. 

Against the Chargers, New England surrendered only 87 yards on the ground. By regular-season performance, Houston trails Los Angeles by seven spots in rush offense DVOA. 

More concerning for Houston is that Nico Collins exited Monday’s game with a concussion. On a short week, he could miss a game against a more vulnerable Patriots secondary. 

The crux of this prediction, though, is my confidence in the Houston defense. 

In a strength-on-strength matchup, I trust Houston’s unit more, given their competition level this season. 

Excluding MNF, Houston ranked second in defensive DVOA, having faced the third-hardest set of opposing offenses. 

New England has yet to face a top-five defense on the season. During the regular season, the Patriots played the easiest set of opposing defenses. 

Accordingly, I expect some regression from the Patriots offense. Barring more Houston defensive touchdowns, I predict the game stays under the total.

NFL Playoff Picks Against the Spread: Consensus Picks

Early action for the divisional round favors one side: San Francisco 49ers (+7) at Seattle.

As of Wednesday morning, San Francisco attracted 72% of bets placed to cover in the Pacific Northwest. The line opened at Seahawks -7, moved to Seahawks -7.5 and has returned to Seahawks -7 on Thursday.

Later action has supported Seattle. As of Friday morning, San Francisco sits on 69% of bets placed and 66% of money wagered to cover the spread.

Elsewhere, the Bears remain a popular underdog (60% of bets placed). The lone favorite seeing support from bettors is the Patriots (58% of bets placed) to cover against the Texans.

Get NFL public betting data on all divisional round games for both bets placed and money wagered percentages. Additionally, find betting splits for the Super Bowl odds at BetMGM.