NFL Player Prop Picks & Predictions – Super Bowl

Below are all my NFL player prop bets for Super Bowl LVIII between the 49ers and Chiefs. 

NFL betting lines are reflective at the time of writing. 

NFL Super Bowl LVIII Player Prop Bets

San Francisco 49ers vs. Kansas City Chiefs, 3:30 p.m. ET, Sunday, Feb. 11

Christian McCaffrey Over 90.5 Rushing Yards (-115)

The Ravens, for whatever reason, failed to run the ball against a bad Chiefs run defense. 

I don’t expect the 49ers will make the same mistake. 

Although this bet is admittedly square, the Stanford product has proved very efficient at clearing this number. 

Through 18 regular and postseason games, McCaffrey has cleared this number 10 times and surpassed 90 in 11 games. 

Now he gets a Chiefs team that’s 28th in running back yards per attempt. Even if you adjust for strength of schedule, they’re 25th, per ftnfantasy.com. 

When you put McCaffrey up against a bad rush defense, he excels. 

In nine games against sides 22nd or worse in rush EPA per play for the season, McCaffrey is 7-2 against this number and has cleared 100 yards in a majority in four of seven successes. 

As a result, bet on him to clear this number for the third straight game. 

Travis Kelce Longest Reception Over 20.5 Yards (-115)

This shapes up as a great sell-high spot on the 49ers defense for one particular reason. 

Super Bowl LVIII against the Chiefs will mark the first occasion this season San Francisco faces a top-10 pass EPA per play side that targets their tight end more than 25% of the time. 

Plus, bettors have previously seen the 49ers defense struggle indoors against good tight ends. 

Against Arizona in Week 15, they surrendered a 38-yard completion to Trey McBride. All the way back in Week 7 against Minnesota, they allowed a 22-yard long to T.J. Hockenson. 

Those two teams sit second and third, respectively, in tight end target share. 

Just in their last five games against teams 10th or higher in tight end target share – Vikings, Jaguars, Cardinals, Ravens and Lions – the 49ers have allowed a majority of opposing tight ends to clear this number. 

Further, the 49ers deploy zone coverage at the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. 

That’s a big problem against Kelce, who leads the Chiefs in zone target share and has excelled against that scheme this season. 

Through eight games against teams at a rate under 40%, Kelce has cleared this number six times, including five straight games. 

Add in Patrick Mahomes sees his completion percentage against zone rise by 13% and I expect Kelce can break one against a vulnerable defense.

Isiah Pacheco Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-115) 

Pacheco has cleared this number in four straight games and notched at least 80 yards in three of those successes. 

In Super Bowl LVIII, he faces a 49ers rush defense that has left a lot to be desired in their two playoff games. 

Against the Packers, San Francisco surrendered 108 rushing yards to Aaron Jones on only 18 attempts. 

In the NFC Championship against Detroit, the 49ers allowed 93 yards on only 15 carries to David Montgomery and 45 yards on 12 attempts to Jahmyr Gibbs. 

Is there a chance they correct that trend with time to prepare? Sure. 

However, the underlying metrics for San Francisco indicate that’s unlikely. 

Since acquiring Chase Young from the Commanders, the 49ers rank 23rd in rush EPA per play and 29th in rushing success rate. 

That should allow ample opportunity for Pacheco, who managed 69 yards against a Ravens side seventh in rush defense DVOA, per ftnfantasy.com. 

Take his rushing yards over as a result.

Deebo Samuel Over 15.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

This is a great buy-low spot on Samuel, who rushed for only seven yards against the Lions in the NFC Championship. 

However, the Lions count themselves amongst the best run-stopping units in the league. Playoffs included, Detroit ranks sixth in rushing EPA per play allowed. 

Now Samuel faces a Chiefs team much worse in that category. Playoffs included, the Chiefs rank 28th in rush EPA per play allowed and 23rd in rush success rate allowed. 

Plus, Samuel excelled against the Chiefs when these sides met in Super Bowl LIV. Although he received only three carries, he notched 53 rushing yards. 

The key number here for Samuel is that he notches at least three rushing attempts against the Chiefs. 

In seven regular-season games in which he received at least three carries, he surpassed this number five times. 

Sample the eight regular season games where he received two or fewer carries, and bettors will find he’s 8-0 to the under. 

Given the extra time to prepare and the Chiefs’ lackluster run defense, expect Samuel to receive ample usage and clear this low number.

Patrick Mahomes + Brock Purdy: Under 503.5 Combined Passing Yards (-110)

I recognize this game is indoors and that passers are aided in that scenario. 

However, counterbalancing that trend is the fact both teams excel in coverage. 

Excluding Week 18 – both teams rested starters in that contest – the Chiefs ranked third in pass EPA per play while the 49ers ranked fifth. 

Plus, both quarterbacks struggled to rack up yardage in their playoff performances. 

Niners quarterback Brock Purdy stayed under 270 yards against the Packers and Lions – sides that ranked 23rd and 29th in pass EPA per play allowed, respectively. 

As for Patrick Mahomes, he stayed under 270 yards in all three games while averaging only 228 yards against the Bills and Ravens. 

Examine these quarterbacks’ records against similar defenses, and the results are encouraging. 

In five games against sides 10th or better in passing EPA per play allowed, Mahomes averaged 247 yards, a number inflated by a 305-yard performance against the Jaguars. 

As for Purdy, he also played five games against sides 10th or better in passing EPA per play allowed. In those games, he averaged 229.6 passing yards. 

For those reasons, 503.5 feels way too high in this game. Back the under on Sunday. 

Most Sacks in the Game: Chris Jones (+550)

This is a nightmare matchup for the 49ers’ offensive line, which, outside of Trent Williams, doesn’t possess much talent. 

That’s even more true along the interior. Starters Aaron Banks, Jake Brendel and Spencer Burford rank terribly in pass protection. 

Amongst 85 guards and tackles who played at least 50% of snaps this season, Banks ranked 65th in pass blocking, Brendel ranks 78th and Burford is 85th, per PFF.

Even more concerning, of the three total sacks the 49ers allowed to opposing defensive players in the playoffs, two came from opposing defensive tackles. 

That opens the door for Jones, who ranks third amongst all interior linemen in pass rushing grade, per PFF, amongst all players who played 50% of all snaps. 

For reference, the next closest Kansas City player in that category is Tershawn Wharton, who ranks 37th. 

Even if you expand the sample to include all defensive players rather than just interior linemen, Jones ranks ninth overall. 

The next closest Chiefs player? George Karlaftis in 73rd. 

Given Patrick Mahomes possesses an outstanding offensive line – the Chiefs rank seventh in pass blocking – and has avoided a sack in both playoff games, I’ll take a shot with Jones.

Harrison Butker Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (-125)

Butker has proved extremely reliable this season for the Chiefs on his way to zero extra point misses and only two field goal misses. 

Both of those misses came outdoors, so he should thrive indoors, where his range likely extends beyond 50 yards. 

In terms of his record against this number, Butker cleared this number 10 times during the regular season and twice during the postseason. 

What really gives me confidence in this prop, though, is that San Francisco has shown that opponents can move the ball on their defense. 

In the divisional round, San Francisco allowed Green Bay to reach their 30-yard line or better on six of 10 offensive drives. 

In the NFC Championship, the Lions moved the ball to or beyond the SF 30-yard line on five of 10 drives. 

Although only one of two opposing kickers cleared this number in those games, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid seems likely to kick rather than force a fourth-down play. 

As a result, take Butker to go over his field goals prop in Super Bowl LVIII.