Air Force vs Wyoming Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 5

BetMGM Betting Sep 27, 2024, 12:04 PM

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Wyoming defensive tackle Jordan Bertagnole walks the sidelines during an NCAA college football game against Illinois Sunday, Aug. 28, 2022, in Champaign, Ill. (AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

(AP Photo/Charles Rex Arbogast)

The Air Force is a -4 point favorite vs. Wyoming
The Air Force vs. Wyoming Total(Over/Under): 33.5 points
TV Channel: CBSSN

The Air Force Falcons (1-2) visit Jonah Field at War Memorial Stadium to take on the Wyoming Cowboys (0-4) on Sep. 28 in Laramie, WY. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT.

Air Force is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -4 (-110).

The Air Force vs. Wyoming Over/Under is 33.5 total points.

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Air Force vs. Wyoming Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Air Force	-4 -110	33.5 -110	-185
Wyoming	+4 -110	33.5 -110	+150

Air Force vs Wyoming Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Wyoming will win this game with 57.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Air Force and Wyoming, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Air Force vs Wyoming Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Wyoming will cover the spread with 58.6% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Air Force Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Air Force has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 5 away games (+5.05 Units / 88% ROI)
Air Force has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)
Air Force has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.30 Units / 10% ROI)

Wyoming Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Wyoming has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+5.55 Units / 38% ROI)
Wyoming has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+4.25 Units / 36% ROI)
Wyoming has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 13 games (+2.60 Units / 18% ROI)
Wyoming has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 games (+1.90 Units / 8% ROI)
Wyoming has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.65 Units / 12% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Wyoming players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Wyoming Player Prop Best Bets Today

Evan Svoboda has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 100% ROI)
Harrison Waylee has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Air Force Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Air Force is 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.3 Units / -100% ROI).

Air Force is 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.4 Units / -100% ROI
Air Force is 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -100% ROI
Air Force is 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 90.91% ROI

Wyoming Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Wyoming is 0-4 against the spread this college football season (-4.4 Units / -100% ROI).

Wyoming is 0-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.1 Units / -100% ROI
Wyoming is 3-1 when betting the Over for +1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI
Wyoming is 1-3 when betting the Under for -2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI

Air Force: Keys to the Game vs. Wyoming

Air Force is winless (0-4) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .385

Air Force is 6-2 (.750) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .633

Air Force is 6-2 (.750) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-34th-best in FBS; Average: .604

Air Force is winless (0-5) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .336

Wyoming: Keys to the Game vs. Air Force

Wyoming is 3-8 (.273) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-31st-worst in FBS; Average: .427

Wyoming is 5-2 (.714) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-19th-best in FBS; Average: .507

Wyoming is 7-2 (.778) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-23rd-best in FBS; Average: .620

Wyoming is 8-1 (.889) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– 10th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .714

Matchup Notes for Air Force vs. Wyoming

Air Force’s QBs has thrown for 150 passing yards in 3 games (just 50.0 YPG) this season — worst among FBS teams. Wyoming’s defense has allowed 248.8 passing yards per game this season — T-29th-worst among FBS defenses.

Air Force’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 7.1% of 42 attempts this season — T-20th-worst among FBS offenses. Wyoming’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 16.0% of attempts this season — 6th-best among FBS defenses.

Air Force have just 50.0 receiving yards per game this season — worst among FBS skill players. Wyoming’s defense has allowed 248.8 receiving yards per game this season — T-29th-worst among FBS defenses.

Air Force Offensive Stats & Trends

Air Force Skill Players have averaged just 5.0 receptions per game (15/3) this season– T-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 18.9

Air Force WRs have been targeted 6.7 times per game (107/16) since the 2023 season– 2nd-lowest among FBS Teams; Average: 20.8

Air Force Skill Players have averaged just 4.2 receptions per game (68/16) since the 2023 season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 18.9

Air Force Skill Players have averaged 18.5 yards per reception (1,259 yards/68 catches) since the 2023 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.1

Air Force WRs have no touchdowns on 11 receptions this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.4

Wyoming Offensive Stats & Trends

Wyoming RBs have averaged just 2.9 Yards per Carry (266 yards/93 carries) this season– T-3rd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 5.2

Wyoming RBs have rushed for 4 TDs on 37 carries (9.2 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 7th-worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 4.6

Wyoming RBs have not rushed for a 0 TD on 93 carries (inf Carries Per TD) this season– T-worst Carries Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 19.9

Wyoming RBs have been targeted 7 times with 4-6 yards to go this season– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams

Wyoming WRs have caught just 23 of 58 passes (40% Reception Pct) this season– 4th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 62%

Air Force Falcons Defensive Stats & Trends

Air Force has allowed 288.6 yards from scrimmage per game since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 384.1

Air Force has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 10 of 60 attempts (17%) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– T-2nd-best in FBS; Average: 9%

Air Force has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on just 43 of 486 carries (9%) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%

Air Force has allowed 107.2 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 149.3

Air Force has allowed 113.3 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 174.2

Wyoming Cowboys Defensive Stats & Trends

Wyoming did not record a sack (43 pass attempts) last week– T-worst in FBS; Average: 16.4

Wyoming has sacked opponents 9 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Wyoming had no interceptions (0 pass attempts) last week– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 36.5

Wyoming had no interceptions (0 pass attempts) last week– T-worst in FBS; Average: 34.8

Wyoming defense has allowed 13 completions for 20 or more yards on 1st down this season– most in FBS