Alabama vs LSU Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

BetMGM Betting Nov 05, 2024, 3:40 PM

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LSU running back Kaleb Jackson (28) signals while watching a replay during the first half of an NCAA football game against Mississippi on Saturday, Sept. 30, 2023, in Oxford, Miss. (AP Photo/Vasha Hunt)

(AP Photo/Vasha Hunt)

Alabama is a -3 point favorite vs. LSU
Alabama vs. LSU Total (Over/Under): 58.5 points
TV Channel: ABC

The Alabama Crimson Tide (6-2) visit Tiger Stadium to take on the LSU Tigers (6-2) on Nov. 9 in Baton Rouge, LA. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EST.

Alabama is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).

The Alabama vs. LSU Over/Under is 58.5 total points.

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Alabama vs. LSU Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Alabama	-3 -105	58.5 -110	-145
LSU	+3 -115	58.5 -110	+120

Alabama vs LSU Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Alabama will win this game with 58.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Alabama and LSU, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Alabama vs LSU Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts LSU will cover the spread with 68.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Alabama Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Alabama has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games (+5.00 Units / 17% ROI)
Alabama has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI)
Alabama have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.45 Units / 11% ROI)
Alabama have covered the 1Q Spread in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.95 Units / 17% ROI)
Alabama has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 3 of their last 6 away games (+0.85 Units / 13% ROI)

LSU Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

LSU has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.75 Units / 1% ROI)
LSU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.40 Units / 10% ROI)
LSU has hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+0.60 Units / 6% ROI)
LSU have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 9 games at home (+0.60 Units / 6% ROI)
LSU has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 10 games (+0.50 Units / 5% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Alabama players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Alabama Player Prop Bets Today

Justice Haynes has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
CJ Dippre has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 93% ROI)
Jalen Milroe has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 69% ROI)
Jalen Milroe has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Ryan Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for LSU players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best LSU Player Prop Best Bets Today

Mason Taylor has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
CJ Daniels has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Kaleb Jackson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Garrett Nussmeier has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Aaron Anderson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Alabama Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Alabama is 4-4 against the spread this college football season (-0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI).

Alabama is 6-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -15.6 Units / -4.41% ROI
Alabama is 5-3 when betting the Over for +1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI
Alabama is 3-5 when betting the Under for -2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI

LSU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

LSU is 3-5 against the spread this college football season (-2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI).

LSU is 5-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.75 Units / 6.57% ROI
LSU is 3-5 when betting the Over for -2.55 Units / -28.81% ROI
LSU is 5-3 when betting the Under for +1.7 Units / 19.43% ROI

Alabama: Keys to the Game vs. LSU

Alabama is 6-1 (.857) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-21st-best in FBS; Average: .590

Alabama is 18-4 (.818) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– 14th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .677

Alabama is 17-2 (.895) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2023 season– 7th-best in FBS; Average: .635

Alabama is 9-2 (.818) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– 4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .530

LSU: Keys to the Game vs. Alabama

LSU is 9-1 (.900) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2023 season– T-11th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .691

LSU is 15-5 (.750) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-27th-best in FBS; Average: .607

LSU is 15-3 (.833) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2023 season– T-10th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .636

LSU is 5-2 (.714) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-13th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .530

Matchup Notes for Alabama vs. LSU

LSU’s WRs has averaged 15.9 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-4th-best among Power 5 WRs. Alabama’s defense has allowed just 11.9 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — T-22nd-best among FBS defenses.

LSU’s QBs has thrown for 2,662 passing yards in 8 games (332.8 YPG) this season — 5th-best among FBS teams. Alabama’s defense has allowed just 193.2 passing yards per game this season — 35th-best among FBS defenses.

LSU has averaged 14.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 10th-best among FBS skill players. Alabama’s defense has allowed just 10.7 RAC since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best among SEC defenses.

Alabama’s WRs has averaged 16.1 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among Power 5 WRs. LSU’s defense has allowed 12.3 RAC since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst among SEC defenses.

Alabama’s WRs has averaged 16.1 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 6th-best among FBS WRs. LSU’s defense has allowed 12.3 RAC since the 2023 season — T-3rd-worst among SEC defenses.

Alabama’s WRs has 241 receptions in 22 games (just 11.0 per game) since the 2023 season — 5th-worst among SEC WRs. LSU’s defense has allowed 19.9 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-29th-worst among FBS defenses.

Alabama Offensive Stats & Trends

Alabama WRs have averaged 51.8 yards per reception (207 yards/4 catches) on 3rd and long this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 14.6

Alabama Skill Players have averaged 22.6 yards per reception (883 yards/39 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 14.1

Alabama WRs have averaged 31.9 yards per reception (701 yards/22 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.6

Alabama Skill Players have averaged 24.7 yards per reception (247 yards/10 catches) on 3rd and long this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.0

Alabama Skill Players have averaged 22.6 yards per reception (883 yards/39 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.0

LSU Offensive Stats & Trends

LSU Skill Players have 32 receptions for 20 or more yards in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– most among SEC Teams

LSU has averaged 14.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 10th-best among FBS skill players. Alabama’s defense has allowed just 10.7 RAC since the 2023 season — T-16th-best among FBS defenses.

Alabama Crimson Tide Defensive Stats & Trends

Alabama has tackled opponents for a loss on just 5 of 44 rushing attempts (11% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 5th-worst in the SEC; Average: 16%.

Alabama has tackled opponents for a loss on 3 of 20 rushing attempts (15% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– T-25th-best in FBS; Average: 10%.

Alabama has tackled opponents for a loss on 3 of 20 rushing attempts (15% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– T-3rd-best in the SEC; Average: 12%.

Alabama has tackled opponents for a loss on just 12 of 108 rushing attempts (11% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 26th-worst in FBS; Average: 15%.

Alabama has sacked opposing QBs on 9% of pass attempts (58/675) since the 2023 season– T-20th-best in FBS; Average: 7%

LSU Tigers Defensive Stats & Trends

LSU has sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (28/238) this season– T-5th-best in FBS; Average: 7%

LSU has allowed a Completion Pct of just 31% (4 completions/13 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 54%

LSU has allowed a Completion Pct of just 31% (4 completions/13 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 54%

LSU allowed a Completion Pct of 74% (38 completions/51 attempts) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 55%

LSU has no interceptions and 18 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in the SEC; Average: 8.5