- Bowling Green is a -7 point favorite vs. Arkansas St
- Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN
The Arkansas State Red Wolves (7-5) visit Hancock Whitney Stadium to take on the Bowling Green Falcons (7-5) on Dec. 26 in Mobile, AL. Kickoff is scheduled for 9:00pm EST.
Bowling Green is a betting favorite in the 68 Ventures Bowl, with the spread sitting at -7 (-110).
The Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green Over/Under is 50.5 total points.
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Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Arkansas State | +7 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +200 |
| Bowling Green | -7 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -250 |
Arkansas State vs Bowling Green Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Bowling Green will win this game with 67.8% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Arkansas St and Bowling Green, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Arkansas State vs Bowling Green Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Bowling Green will cover the spread with 54.5% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Arkansas State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Arkansas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.50 Units / 35% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 away games (+1.60 Units / 20% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.00 Units / 4% ROI)
- Arkansas State has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 away games (+0.70 Units / 9% ROI)
Bowling Green Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Bowling Green has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.60 Units / 32% ROI)
- Bowling Green has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+3.50 Units / 8% ROI)
- Bowling Green has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+2.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- Bowling Green have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 11 games (+1.55 Units / 11% ROI)
- Bowling Green has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 2 of their last 5 games at home (+1.00 Units / 16% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Bowling Green players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Bowling Green Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Terion Stewart has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Harold Fannin Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Arkansas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Arkansas St is 5-7 against the spread this college football season (-2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI).
- Arkansas State is 7-5 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.35 Units / 10.33% ROI
- Arkansas State is 6-6 when betting the Over for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Arkansas State is 6-6 when betting the Under for -0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI
Bowling Green Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Bowling Green is 6-6 against the spread this college football season (-0.6 Units / -4.55% ROI).
- Bowling Green is 7-5 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.3 Units / -3.8% ROI
- Bowling Green is 5-7 when betting the Over for -2.7 Units / -20.45% ROI
- Bowling Green is 7-5 when betting the Under for +1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI
Arkansas State: Keys to the Game vs. Bowling Green
Arkansas State is 6-2 (.750) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays this season– T-34th-best in FBS; Average: .608
Arkansas State is 12-5 (.706) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .553
Arkansas State is 9-2 (.818) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .482
Arkansas State is 12-3 (.800) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-9th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .622
Bowling Green: Keys to the Game vs. Arkansas State
Bowling Green is 14-5 (.737) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– 12th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .579
Bowling Green is 12-4 (.750) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-11th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .590
Bowling Green is 14-4 (.778) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2023 season– 10th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .581
Bowling Green is 12-4 (.750) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– 8th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .581
Matchup Notes for Arkansas State vs. Bowling Green
Bowling Green’s WRs has 190 receptions in 25 games (just 7.6 per game) since the 2023 season — 5th-worst among FBS WRs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 20.3 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-18th-worst among FBS defenses.
Bowling Green’s TEs has 165 receptions in 25 games (6.6 per game) since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among FBS TEs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 20.3 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-18th-worst among FBS defenses.
Bowling Green’s TEs has averaged 12.7 targets per game this season — highest among FBS TEs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 3.9 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.
Arkansas State’s WRs has gained 4,517 yards on 304 receptions (14.9 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-14th-best among FBS WRs. Bowling Green’s defense has allowed just 11.8 Yards Per Reception to WRs since the 2023 season — T-12th-best among FBS defenses.
Arkansas State has gained 2,725 yards on 255 receptions (just 10.7 YPR) this season — T-14th-worst among FBS skill players. Bowling Green’s defense has allowed just 11.2 Yards Per Reception this season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.
Arkansas State’s WRs has averaged 14.7 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 14th-best among FBS WRs. Bowling Green’s defense has allowed just 11.8 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — T-15th-best among FBS defenses.
Arkansas State Offensive Stats & Trends
Arkansas State’s WRs has gained 4,517 yards on 304 receptions (14.9 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-14th-best among FBS WRs. Bowling Green’s defense has allowed just 11.8 Yards Per Reception to WRs since the 2023 season — T-12th-best among FBS defenses.
Arkansas State has gained 2,725 yards on 255 receptions (just 10.7 YPR) this season — T-14th-worst among FBS skill players. Bowling Green’s defense has allowed just 11.2 Yards Per Reception this season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.
Arkansas State’s WRs has averaged 14.7 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 14th-best among FBS WRs. Bowling Green’s defense has allowed just 11.8 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — T-15th-best among FBS defenses.
Arkansas State’s RBs has gained 313 yards on 48 receptions (just 6.5 YPR) this season — T-26th-worst among FBS RBs. Bowling Green’s defense has allowed just 11.2 Yards Per Reception this season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.
Arkansas State has 255 receptions in 12 games (21.2 per game) this season — T-35th-best among FBS skill players. Bowling Green’s defense has allowed just 16.2 receptions per game this season — T-14th-best among FBS defenses.
Bowling Green Offensive Stats & Trends
Bowling Green TEs have 21 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– most among FBS Teams
Bowling Green’s WRs has 190 receptions in 25 games (just 7.6 per game) since the 2023 season — 5th-worst among FBS WRs. Arkansas State’s defense has allowed 20.3 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-18th-worst among FBS defenses.
Bowling Green TEs have averaged 9.2 receptions per game (111/12) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 3.3
Bowling Green TEs have averaged 117.6 receiving yards per game (1,411/12) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 36.7
Bowling Green TEs have been targeted 152 times this season– most among FBS Teams
Arkansas State Red Wolves Defensive Stats & Trends
Arkansas State has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 9 of 23 carries (39%) on 3rd and long this season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 19%
Arkansas State has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 9 of 23 carries (39%) on 3rd and long this season– worst in FBS; Average: 18%
Arkansas State has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 93 of 460 carries (20%) this season– worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%
Arkansas State has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 93 of 460 carries (20%) this season– worst in FBS; Average: 13%
Arkansas State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 54 of 460 rushing attempts (12% TFL%) this season– T-13th-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.
Bowling Green Falcons Defensive Stats & Trends
Bowling Green opponents has averaged 7.2 Passing Attempts per TD (36 Pass Attempts/5 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 6th-best in FBS; Average: 3.9
Bowling Green has allowed 125.3 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 172.2
Bowling Green has allowed opponents to catch just 13 of 35 passes (37% Reception Pct) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 54%
Bowling Green has tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 58 rushing attempts (3% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 4th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 11%.
Bowling Green has allowed 12 rushing TDs on 411 carries (34.2 Carries Per TD) this season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 20.9
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