Boston College vs Missouri Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 3

BetMGM Betting Sep 12, 2024, 11:23 AM

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Missouri head coach Eliah Drinkwitz yells during the second half of the team's Cotton Bowl NCAA college football game against Ohio State on Friday, Dec. 29, 2023, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

(AP Photo/Julio Cortez)

Missouri is a -16.5 point favorite vs. Boston College
Boston College vs. Missouri Total(Over/Under): 54 points
TV Channel: SECN

The Boston College Eagles (2-0) visit Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field to take on the Missouri Tigers (2-0) on Sep. 14 in Columbia, MO. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:45pm EDT.

Missouri is a betting favorite in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -16.5 (-115).

The Boston College vs. Missouri Over/Under is 54 total points.

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Boston College vs. Missouri Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Boston College	+16.5 -105	54 -110	+550
Missouri	-16.5 -115	54 -110	-800

Boston College vs Missouri Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Missouri will win this game with 88.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Boston College and Missouri, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Boston College vs Missouri Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Missouri will cover the spread with 60.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Boston College Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Boston College has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+11.15 Units / 61% ROI)

Boston College has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 6 away games (+5.55 Units / 91% ROI)

Boston College has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.75 Units / 54% ROI)

Boston College has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 11 games (+3.15 Units / 22% ROI)

Boston College has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)

Missouri Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Missouri has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+8.85 Units / 42% ROI)

Missouri has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+8.15 Units / 33% ROI)

Missouri have covered the Spread in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.80 Units / 59% ROI)

Missouri have covered the 1H Spread in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.80 Units / 59% ROI)

Missouri has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.75 Units / 28% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Boston College players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Boston College Player Prop Bets Today

Thomas Castellanos has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 4 games (+4.55 Units / 71% ROI)

Thomas Castellanos has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 80% ROI)

Lewis Bond has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 85% ROI)

Kye Robichaux has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Thomas Castellanos has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Missouri players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Missouri Player Prop Best Bets Today

Brady Cook has hit the TD Passes Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+5.25 Units / 52% ROI)

Luther Burden III has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 6 of his last 7 games (+4.80 Units / 57% ROI)

Mookie Cooper has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Theo Wease Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 6 of his last 9 games (+2.40 Units / 22% ROI)

Brady Cook has hit the Rushing Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games at home (+1.80 Units / 37% ROI)

Boston College Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Boston College is 2-0 against the spread this college football season (+2 Units / 93.02% ROI).

Boston College is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.05 Units / 605% ROI
Boston College is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
Boston College is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

Missouri Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Missouri is 1-0 against the spread this college football season (+1 Units / 90.91% ROI).

Missouri is 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Missouri is 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
Missouri is 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI

Boston College: Keys to the Game vs. Missouri

Boston College is 1-10 (.091) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2022 season– T-2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .513

Boston College is 5-13 (.278) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2022 season– T-36th-worst in FBS; Average: .379

Boston College is 3-11 (.214) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2022 season– T-15th-worst in FBS; Average: .511

Boston College is 3-12 (.200) when intercepting no passes since the 2022 season– T-34th-worst in FBS; Average: .334

Missouri: Keys to the Game vs. Boston College

Missouri is 11-1 (.917) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-5th-best in FBS; Average: .566

Missouri is undefeated (8-0) when not throwing an interception since the 2023 season– 7th-best in FBS; Average: .585

Missouri is 6-1 (.667) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-15th-best in FBS; Average: .438

Missouri is 8-2 (.571) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– 13th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .417

Matchup Notes for Boston College vs. Missouri

Missouri has gained 563 yards on 63 receptions (just 8.9 YPR) this season — T-10th-worst among FBS skill players. Boston College’s defense has allowed just 7.5 Yards Per Reception this season — T-8th-best among FBS defenses.

Missouri has averaged just 8.9 yards after the catch this season — T-13th-worst among FBS skill players. Boston College’s defense has allowed just 7.5 RAC this season — T-10th-best among FBS defenses.

Boston College’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 46.2% of 13 attempts this season — best among FBS offenses. Missouri’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 2.9% of attempts this season — 8th-worst among FBS defenses.

Boston College has gained 257 yards on 11 receptions (23.4 YPR) this season — best among FBS skill players. Missouri’s defense has allowed just 6.3 Yards Per Reception this season — 2nd-best among FBS defenses.

Missouri’s defense has allowed just 6.5 receptions per game this season — 3rd-best among FBS defenses.

Boston College Offensive Stats & Trends

Boston College Skill Players have averaged 23.4 yards per reception (257 yards/11 catches) this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.5

Boston College WRs have averaged 26.5 yards per reception (212 yards/8 catches) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.5

Boston College Skill Players have averaged 23.4 yards per reception (257 yards/11 catches) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.2

Boston College RBs have averaged 13.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (165 yards / 12 touches) on 2nd down this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.5

Boston College have completed passes for 20+ yards on 6 of their 13 total passing attempts (46%) this season– best among FBS Offenses; Average: 11%

Missouri Offensive Stats & Trends

Missouri Skill Players have just one touchdown on 63 receptions this season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 8.7

Missouri Skill Players have just one touchdown on 63 receptions this season– 4th-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9.9

Missouri WRs have just one touchdown on 47 receptions this season– worst Receptions Per TD among SEC Teams; Average: 8.0

Boston College Eagles Defensive Stats & Trends

Boston College has not recorded a sack (28 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 14.8

Boston College has no interceptions (72 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 38.0

Boston College has no interceptions and 26 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9.5

Boston College has not recorded a sack (28 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.1

Boston College has averaged a sack every 27.3 pass attempts (355 Pass Attempts/13 Sacks) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.7

Missouri Tigers Defensive Stats & Trends

Missouri has allowed a Completion Pct of just 37% (13 completions/35 attempts) this season– best in the SEC; Average: 59%

Missouri has allowed 6 rushing TDs on 60 carries (10 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 4.6

Missouri has allowed 8 rushing TDs on 488 carries (61 Carries Per TD) since the 2023 season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 24.6

Missouri has allowed opponents to catch just 13 of 34 passes (38% Reception Pct) this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 59%

Missouri has allowed a Completion Pct of just 30% (3 completions/10 attempts) on 1st down this season– best in the SEC; Average: 62%