Buffalo vs Liberty Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – Bahamas Bowl

BetMGM Betting Dec 12, 2024, 12:29 PM

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Liberty's Kaidon Salter runs the ball for a touchdown against UMass during the first half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Nov. 18, 2023, in Lynchburg, Va. (AP Photo/Robert Simmons)

(AP Photo/Robert Simmons)

Liberty is a -2.5 point favorite vs. Buffalo U
Buffalo vs. Liberty Total (Over/Under): 52.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN2

The Buffalo Bulls (8-4) visit Thomas Robinson Stadium to take on the Liberty Flames (8-3) on Jan. 4 in . Kickoff is scheduled for 11:00am EST.

Liberty is a betting favorite in the Bahamas Bowl, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-105).

The Buffalo vs. Liberty Over/Under is 52.5 total points.

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Buffalo vs. Liberty Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Buffalo	+2.5 -115	52.5 -115	+110
Liberty	-2.5 -105	52.5 -105	-135

Buffalo vs Liberty Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Liberty will win this game with 56.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Buffalo U and Liberty, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Buffalo vs Liberty Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Liberty will cover the spread with 59.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Buffalo Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Buffalo has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 10 games (+9.10 Units / 31% ROI)
Buffalo has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 games (+5.90 Units / 67% ROI)
Buffalo have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.85 Units / 30% ROI)
Buffalo has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.85 Units / 51% ROI)
Buffalo has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 7 games (+1.85 Units / 9% ROI)

Liberty Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Liberty has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.80 Units / 58% ROI)
Liberty has hit the Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.65 Units / 7% ROI)
Liberty has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 5 of their last 10 games (+1.85 Units / 16% ROI)
Liberty has hit the Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.80 Units / 15% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Buffalo players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Buffalo Player Prop Bets Today

Al-Jay Henderson has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
JJ Jenkins has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Liberty players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Liberty Player Prop Best Bets Today

Kaidon Salter has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Kaidon Salter has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Quinton Cooley has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Tyson Mobley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Kaidon Salter has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Buffalo Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Buffalo U is 7-5 against the spread this college football season (+1.5 Units / 11.36% ROI).

Buffalo is 7-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.1 Units / 26.64% ROI
Buffalo is 7-4 when betting the Over for +2.6 Units / 19.7% ROI
Buffalo is 4-7 when betting the Under for -3.7 Units / -28.03% ROI

Liberty Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Liberty is 3-8 against the spread this college football season (-5.8 Units / -47.93% ROI).

Liberty is 7-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -35.65 Units / -32.02% ROI
Liberty is 5-5 when betting the Over for -0.6 Units / -4.92% ROI
Liberty is 5-5 when betting the Under for -0.5 Units / -4.17% ROI

Buffalo: Keys to the Game vs. Liberty

Buffalo is undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush this season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .612

Buffalo is undefeated (7-0) when allowing less than 3 explosive runs since the 2023 season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .703

Buffalo is 4-13 (.235) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-23rd-worst in FBS; Average: .422

Buffalo is 2-12 (.143) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-29th-worst in FBS; Average: .282

Liberty: Keys to the Game vs. Buffalo

Liberty is 15-4 (.789) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .381

Liberty is 20-3 (.833) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .579

Liberty is undefeated (11-0) when allowing less than 3 explosive runs since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .722

Liberty is 3-1 (.750) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties this season– T-9th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .469

Matchup Notes for Buffalo vs. Liberty

Liberty’s QBs has thrown for 1,934 passing yards in 11 games (just 175.8 YPG) this season — 17th-worst among FBS teams. Buffalo’s defense has allowed 258.6 passing yards per game this season — 14th-worst among FBS defenses.

Liberty’s WRs has 249 receptions in 25 games (just 10.0 per game) since the 2023 season — 25th-worst among FBS WRs. Buffalo’s defense has allowed 19.6 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-29th-worst among FBS defenses.

Liberty’s offense has thrown for 1,934 passing yards in 11 games (just 175.8 YPG) this season — 16th-worst among FBS offenses. Buffalo’s defense has allowed 258.6 passing yards per game this season — 14th-worst among FBS defenses.

Buffalo has 185 receptions in 12 games (just 15.4 per game) this season — 29th-worst among FBS skill players. Liberty’s defense has allowed just 16.5 receptions per game this season — 22nd-best among FBS defenses.

Buffalo’s RBs has 0.2 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-22nd-worst among FBS RBs. Liberty’s defense has allowed just 1.0 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-18th-best among FBS defenses.

Buffalo Offensive Stats & Trends

Buffalo Skill Players have averaged just 15.4 receptions per game (185/12) this season– 29th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 18.7

Buffalo WRs have fumbled 4 times in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

Buffalo QBs have averaged 190.4 Passing Yards per game (2,285/12) this season– 30th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 225.7

Liberty Offensive Stats & Trends

Liberty Skill Players have averaged 18.5 yards per reception (519 yards/28 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.9

Liberty WRs have averaged 20.4 yards per reception (631 yards/31 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since the 2023 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.4

Buffalo Bulls Defensive Stats & Trends

Buffalo has allowed 223.2 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs this season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: 163.2

Buffalo has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on just 1 of 15 carries (7%) on 3rd and long this season– 9th-best in FBS; Average: 18%

Buffalo has allowed a Completion Pct of 74% (17 completions/23 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– T-14th-worst in FBS; Average: 62%

Buffalo has allowed a Completion Pct of 73% (35 completions/48 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season– 5th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%

Buffalo allowed first downs on 32% of rush attempts on 3rd and short in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 60%

Liberty Flames Defensive Stats & Trends

Liberty did not record a sack (56 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 16.4

Liberty did not record a sack (56 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1

Liberty has allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on just 1 of 19 carries (5%) on 3rd and long this season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 19%

Liberty allowed a Completion Pct of just 43% (33 completions/77 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go in the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 59%

Liberty opponents has averaged 27.6 Passing Attempts per TD (304 Pass Attempts/11 Passing TDs) this season– 28th-best in FBS; Average: 20.7