Buffalo vs N Illinois Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 4

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Northern Illinois Huskies running back Antario Brown runs with the ball against Eastern Illinois Panthers during the first half of an NCAA football game on Thursday, Sept. 1, 2022, in DeKalb, Ill. (AP Photo/Kamil Krzaczynski)

(AP Photo/Kamil Krzaczynski)

BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Sep 18, 2024, 1:15 PM

N Illinois is a -14 point favorite vs. Buffalo U
Buffalo vs. Northern Illinois Total(Over/Under): 43.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN+

The Buffalo Bulls (2-1) visit Brigham Field at Huskie Stadium to take on the Northern Illinois Huskies (2-0) on Sep. 21 in DeKalb, IL. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.

N Illinois is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -14 (-110).

The Buffalo vs. Northern Illinois Over/Under is 43.5 total points.

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Buffalo vs. Northern Illinois Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Buffalo	+14 -110	43.5 -110	+425
Northern Illinois	-14 -110	43.5 -110	-600

Buffalo vs Northern Illinois Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Northern Illinois will win this game with 84.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Buffalo U and N Illinois, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Buffalo vs Northern Illinois Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Northern Illinois will cover the spread with 66.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Buffalo Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Buffalo has hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 12 games (+9.90 Units / 75% ROI)

Buffalo has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.75 Units / 55% ROI)

Buffalo has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.70 Units / 29% ROI)

Buffalo have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.30 Units / 2% ROI)

Buffalo has hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 4 away games (+0.25 Units / 5% ROI)

Northern Illinois Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Northern Illinois has hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)

Northern Illinois has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 11 games (+3.85 Units / 20% ROI)

Northern Illinois has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.40 Units / 26% ROI)

Northern Illinois has hit the Moneyline in their last 3 games (+3.15 Units / 19% ROI)

Northern Illinois has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.70 Units / 35% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Buffalo players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Buffalo Player Prop Bets Today

CJ Ogbonna has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Northern Illinois players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Northern Illinois Player Prop Best Bets Today

Trayvon Rudolph has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Antario Brown has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Buffalo Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Buffalo U is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI).

Buffalo is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 62.5% ROI
Buffalo is 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.35 Units / -100% ROI
Buffalo is 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 92.31% ROI

Northern Illinois Against the Spread (ATS) Record

N Illinois is 2-0 against the spread this college football season (+2 Units / 90.91% ROI).

Northern Illinois is 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Northern Illinois is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.15 Units / -6.67% ROI
Northern Illinois is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.65% ROI

Buffalo: Keys to the Game vs. Northern Illinois

Buffalo is 6-3 (.545) when passing for more than 200 yards since the 2022 season– T-9th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .399

Buffalo is winless (0-8) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .355

Buffalo is 2-9 (.182) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2023 season– T-20th-worst in FBS; Average: .446

Buffalo is 1-8 (.111) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-14th-worst in FBS; Average: .386

Northern Illinois: Keys to the Game vs. Buffalo

Northern Illinois is 6-1 (.750) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-18th-best in FBS; Average: .498

Northern Illinois is 5-13 (.263) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2022 season– 35th-worst in FBS; Average: .405

Northern Illinois is 5-10 (.333) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2022 season– T-34th-worst in FBS; Average: .497

Northern Illinois is undefeated (5-0) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-5th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .382

Matchup Notes for Buffalo vs. Northern Illinois

Northern Illinois’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 16.3% of 49 attempts this season — T-15th-best among FBS offenses. Buffalo’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 5.7% of attempts this season — T-26th-worst among FBS defenses.

Northern Illinois has gained 589 yards on 32 receptions (18.4 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among FBS skill players. Buffalo’s defense has allowed just 7.8 Yards Per Reception this season — 7th-best among FBS defenses.

Northern Illinois’s WRs has gained 259 yards on 16 receptions (16.2 YPR) this season — T-21st-best among FBS WRs. Buffalo’s defense has allowed just 9.4 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — T-14th-best among FBS defenses.

Buffalo’s offense has thrown for 2,658 passing yards in 15 games (just 177.2 YPG) since the 2023 season — 16th-worst among FBS offenses. Northern Illinois’s defense has allowed just 172.0 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 8th-best among FBS defenses.

Buffalo’s QBs has thrown for 2,631 passing yards in 15 games (just 175.4 YPG) since the 2023 season — 16th-worst among FBS teams. Northern Illinois’s defense has allowed just 172.0 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 8th-best among FBS defenses.

Buffalo’s RBs has averaged just 5.6 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-10th-worst among FBS RBs. Northern Illinois’s defense has allowed just 10.7 RAC since the 2023 season — T-25th-best among FBS defenses.

Buffalo Offensive Stats & Trends

Buffalo has gained 2,658 yards on 246 receptions (just 10.8 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-17th-worst among FBS skill players. Northern Illinois’s defense has allowed just 10.9 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — T-23rd-best among FBS defenses.

Buffalo’s RBs has 55 receptions in 15 games (3.7 per game) since the 2023 season — T-34th-best among FBS RBs. Northern Illinois’s defense has allowed just 15.7 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 11th-best among FBS defenses.

Northern Illinois Offensive Stats & Trends

Northern Illinois’s WRs has gained 259 yards on 16 receptions (16.2 YPR) this season — T-21st-best among FBS WRs. Buffalo’s defense has allowed just 7.8 Yards Per Reception this season — 7th-best among FBS defenses.

Northern Illinois Skill Players have averaged 18.4 yards per reception (589 yards/32 catches) this season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.2

Buffalo Bulls Defensive Stats & Trends

Buffalo has tackled opponents for a loss on 16 of 56 rushing attempts (29% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2022 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 11%.

Buffalo has tackled opponents for a loss on 16 of 56 rushing attempts (29% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2022 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 12%.

Buffalo has allowed just 7.8 yards per completion (564 yards/72 completions) this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.9

Buffalo has tackled opponents for a loss on 23 of 107 rushing attempts (21% TFL%) this season– 23rd-best in FBS; Average: 16%.

Buffalo has allowed first downs on 39% of rush attempts on 3rd and short since the 2022 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%

Northern Illinois Huskies Defensive Stats & Trends

Northern Illinois has tackled opponents for a loss on just 7 of 82 rushing attempts (9% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-8th-worst in FBS; Average: 15%.

Northern Illinois has tackled opponents for a loss on just 6 of 57 rushing attempts (10% TFL%) this season– 19th-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.

Northern Illinois has allowed a Completion Pct of just 42% (11 completions/26 attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-11th-best in FBS; Average: 53%

Northern Illinois has tackled opponents for a loss on just 3 of 39 rushing attempts (8% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 35th-worst in FBS; Average: 11%.

Northern Illinois has allowed 172.0 Passing Yards per game (2,580/15) since the 2023 season– 8th-best in FBS; Average: 219.6

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