Colorado vs Texas Tech Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets โ€“ NCAAF, Week 11

Texas Tech running back Tahj Brooks (28) runs the ball against Oregon during the first half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Sept. 9, 2023, in Lubbock, Texas. (AP Photo/Chase Seabolt)
(AP Photo/Chase Seabolt)
  • Colorado is a -3.5 point favorite vs. Texas Tech
  • Colorado vs. Texas Tech Total (Over/Under): 62.5 points
  • TV Channel: FOX

The Colorado Buffaloes (6-2) visit Jones AT&T Stadium to take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-3) on Nov. 9 in Lubbock, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 4:00pm EST.

Colorado is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).

The Colorado vs. Texas Tech Over/Under is 62.5 total points.

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Colorado vs. Texas Tech Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Colorado-3.5 -11062.5 -110-175
Texas Tech +3.5 -11062.5 -110+145

Colorado vs Texas Tech Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Colorado will win this game with 58.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Colorado and Texas Tech, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Colorado vs Texas Tech Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Texas Tech will cover the spread with 67.3% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Colorado have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.75 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Colorado has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
  • Colorado has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.05 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Colorado has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+3.65 Units / 22% ROI)
  • Colorado has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 9 games (+1.95 Units / 18% ROI)
  • Texas Tech has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+7.10 Units / 37% ROI)
  • Texas Tech has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 86% ROI)
  • Texas Tech has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 games (+1.85 Units / 11% ROI)
  • Texas Tech have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.50 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Texas Tech has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.70 Units / 9% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Colorado players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Colorado Player Prop Bets Today

  • Shedeur Sanders has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 58% ROI)
  • Travis Hunter has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Jimmy Horn Jr. has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Isaiah Augustave has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Charlie Offerdahl has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 77% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Texas Tech players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texas Tech Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Behren Morton has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.10 Units / 110% ROI)
  • Coy Eakin has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Behren Morton has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Colorado Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Colorado is 6-2 against the spread this college football season (+3.85 Units / 44.25% ROI).

  • Colorado is 6-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.65 Units / 47.67% ROI
  • Colorado is 3-4 when betting the Over for -1.4 Units / -15.91% ROI
  • Colorado is 4-3 when betting the Under for +0.7 Units / 7.95% ROI

Texas Tech Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Texas Tech is 5-3 against the spread this college football season (+1.7 Units / 17.09% ROI).

  • Texas Tech is 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.55 Units / 32.16% ROI
  • Texas Tech is 5-4 when betting the Over for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
  • Texas Tech is 4-5 when betting the Under for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI

Colorado: Keys to the Game vs. Texas Tech

Colorado is 2-5 (.286) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .590

Colorado is 5-1 (.833) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– T-22nd-best in FBS; Average: .642

Colorado is 6-5 (.545) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-35th-best in FBS; Average: .433

Colorado is undefeated (5-0) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-best in FBS; Average: .590

Texas Tech: Keys to the Game vs. Colorado

Texas Tech is 12-8 (.600) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 31st-best in FBS; Average: .446

Texas Tech is 9-2 (.818) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– 10th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .598

Texas Tech is 9-7 (.562) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– 32nd-best in FBS; Average: .433

Texas Tech is 9-4 (.692) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-24th-best in FBS; Average: .529

Matchup Notes for Colorado vs. Texas Tech

Texas Tech has 511 receptions in 22 games (23.2 per game) since the 2023 season — 23rd-best among FBS skill players. Colorado’s defense has allowed 20.7 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Texas Tech’s WRs has 392 receptions in 22 games (17.8 per game) since the 2023 season — 4th-best among Big 12 WRs. Colorado’s defense has allowed 20.7 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 18th-worst among FBS defenses.

Texas Tech has 511 receptions in 22 games (23.2 per game) since the 2023 season — 5th-best among Big 12 skill players. Colorado’s defense has allowed 20.7 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Colorado’s WRs has 365 receptions in 20 games (18.2 per game) since the 2023 season — 5th-best among Power 5 WRs. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed 21.5 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 10th-worst among FBS defenses.

Colorado’s WRs has 365 receptions in 20 games (18.2 per game) since the 2023 season — 10th-best among FBS WRs. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed 21.5 receptions per game since the 2023 season — worst among Big 12 defenses.

Colorado’s QBs has thrown for 2,591 passing yards in 8 games (323.9 YPG) this season — 7th-best among FBS teams. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed 307.2 passing yards per game this season — worst among P5 defenses.

Colorado Offensive Stats & Trends

Colorado’s WRs has 365 receptions in 20 games (18.2 per game) since the 2023 season — 5th-best among Power 5 WRs. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed 21.5 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 10th-worst among FBS defenses.

Colorado’s WRs has 365 receptions in 20 games (18.2 per game) since the 2023 season — 10th-best among FBS WRs. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed 21.5 receptions per game since the 2023 season — worst among Big 12 defenses.

Colorado’s QBs has thrown for 2,591 passing yards in 8 games (323.9 YPG) this season — 7th-best among FBS teams. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed 307.2 passing yards per game this season — worst among P5 defenses.

Colorado has 483 receptions in 20 games (24.2 per game) since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among Big 12 skill players. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed 21.5 receptions per game since the 2023 season — worst among Big 12 defenses.

Colorado’s offense has thrown for 6,127 passing yards in 20 games (306.4 YPG) since the 2023 season — 9th-best among FBS offenses. Texas Tech’s defense has allowed 262.1 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 5th-worst among FBS defenses.

Texas Tech Offensive Stats & Trends

Texas Tech has 511 receptions in 22 games (23.2 per game) since the 2023 season — 23rd-best among FBS skill players. Colorado’s defense has allowed 20.7 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Texas Tech’s WRs has 392 receptions in 22 games (17.8 per game) since the 2023 season — 4th-best among Big 12 WRs. Colorado’s defense has allowed 20.7 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 18th-worst among FBS defenses.

Texas Tech has 511 receptions in 22 games (23.2 per game) since the 2023 season — 5th-best among Big 12 skill players. Colorado’s defense has allowed 20.7 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Texas Tech has 511 receptions in 22 games (23.2 per game) since the 2023 season — 23rd-best among FBS skill players. Colorado’s defense has allowed 20.7 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 18th-worst among FBS defenses.

Texas Tech has 511 receptions in 22 games (23.2 per game) since the 2023 season — 5th-best among Big 12 skill players. Colorado’s defense has allowed 20.7 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 18th-worst among FBS defenses.

Colorado Buffaloes Defensive Stats & Trends

Colorado has sacked opposing QBs on 10% of pass attempts (22/231) this season– best in the Big 12; Average: 6%

Colorado has allowed 50.9 receiving yards per game (407/8) to RBs this season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 25.3

Colorado allowed 159 first down receptions in the 2023 season– most in the Big 12

Colorado has tackled opponents for a loss on just 2 of 56 rushing attempts (4% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– T-2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11%.

Colorado has tackled opponents for a loss on 11 of 50 rushing attempts (22% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 19th-best in FBS; Average: 15%.

Texas Tech Red Raiders Defensive Stats & Trends

Texas Tech’s opponents has attempted 37.2 passes per game this season– highest in the Big 12; Average: 30.7

Texas Tech has sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (11/335) this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 6%

Texas Tech has allowed 20 TD passes this season– most in the Big 12

Texas Tech has allowed 51.0 receiving yards per game (459/9) to RBs this season– worst in FBS; Average: 25.3

Texas Tech has allowed 8.1 yards from scrimmage per touch (4,159 yards / 514 touches) this season– 2nd-worst in the Big 12; Average: 6.9


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About the Author

Nick Hennion

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Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.

Nick Hennion is a senior content writer for BetMGM. His previous stops include VSiN, NBC Sports, The Action Network and Forbes Betting. He owns a bachelor's degree from Syracuse University and a master's degree from Northwestern University.