- NC State is a -3 point favorite vs. Duke
- Duke vs. North Carolina State Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
- TV Channel: ACCN
The Duke Blue Devils (6-3) visit Carter-Finley Stadium to take on the North Carolina State Wolfpack (5-4) on Nov. 9 in Raleigh, NC. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST.
NC State is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -3 (-110).
The Duke vs. North Carolina State Over/Under is 50.5 total points.
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Duke vs. North Carolina State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Duke | +3 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +135 |
| North Carolina State | -3 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -165 |
Duke vs North Carolina State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts North Carolina State will win this game with 58.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Duke and NC State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Duke vs North Carolina State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts North Carolina State will cover the spread with 59.8% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on NC State vs Duke and all games with BetMGM
Duke Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Duke has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 12 games (+5.30 Units / 25% ROI)
- Duke has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
- Duke have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.65 Units / 26% ROI)
- Duke has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- Duke has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 13 games (+2.60 Units / 18% ROI)
North Carolina State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- NC State has hit the Moneyline in 7 of their last 12 games (+3.35 Units / 11% ROI)
- NC State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.20 Units / 24% ROI)
- NC State has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- NC State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.45 Units / 17% ROI)
- NC State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+1.85 Units / 20% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Duke players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Duke Player Prop Bets Today
- Eli Pancol has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jordan Moore has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for North Carolina State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best North Carolina State Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Kevin Concepcion has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Grayson McCall has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jordan Waters has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)
- Grayson McCall has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 42% ROI)
Duke Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Duke is 5-3 against the spread this college football season (+1.75 Units / 17.86% ROI).
- Duke is 5-3 when betting on the Moneyline for +2.15 Units / 10.05% ROI
- Duke is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
- Duke is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI
North Carolina State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
NC State is 2-6 against the spread this college football season (-4.6 Units / -46.23% ROI).
- North Carolina State is 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 3.81% ROI
- North Carolina State is 6-3 when betting the Over for +2.65 Units / 26.63% ROI
- North Carolina State is 3-6 when betting the Under for -3.6 Units / -36.55% ROI
Duke: Keys to the Game vs. North Carolina State
Duke is winless (0-7) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .303
Duke is winless (0-7) when allowing 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .286
Duke is 5-1 (.833) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-25th-best in FBS; Average: .590
Duke is 10-5 (.667) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-30th-best in FBS; Average: .529
North Carolina State: Keys to the Game vs. Duke
North Carolina State is winless (0-3) when not forcing a fumble this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .535
North Carolina State is 8-3 (.727) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-11th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .530
North Carolina State is 8-3 (.727) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-34th-best in FBS; Average: .619
North Carolina State is 10-3 (.714) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-32nd-best in FBS; Average: .597
Matchup Notes for Duke vs. North Carolina State
North Carolina State’s WRs has averaged just 11.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-10th-worst among FBS WRs. Duke’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best among P5 defenses.
North Carolina State’s WRs has averaged just 11.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-4th-worst among Power 5 WRs. Duke’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best among FBS defenses.
North Carolina State’s TEs has gained 531 yards on 32 receptions (16.6 YPR) this season — T-best among ACC TEs. Duke’s defense has allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception this season — best among ACC defenses.
Duke’s TEs has 36 receptions in 21 games (just 1.7 per game) since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among ACC TEs. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 4.0 receptions per game to TEs since the 2023 season — T-12th-worst among FBS defenses.
Duke’s TEs has 16 receptions in 9 games (just 1.8 per game) this season — worst among ACC TEs. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 3.9 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.
Duke’s TEs has 36 receptions in 21 games (just 1.7 per game) since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among P5 TEs. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 4.0 receptions per game to TEs since the 2023 season — T-12th-worst among FBS defenses.
Duke Offensive Stats & Trends
Duke TEs have averaged 30.7 yards per reception (92 yards/3 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since the 2023 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 10.2
Duke TEs have averaged 30.7 yards per reception (92 yards/3 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.3
Duke’s TEs has 36 receptions in 21 games (just 1.7 per game) since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among ACC TEs. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 4.0 receptions per game to TEs since the 2023 season — T-12th-worst among FBS defenses.
Duke’s TEs has 16 receptions in 9 games (just 1.8 per game) this season — worst among ACC TEs. North Carolina State’s defense has allowed 3.9 receptions per game to TEs this season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.
Duke WRs have been targeted 58 times with 4-6 yards to go this season– most among FBS Teams
North Carolina State Offensive Stats & Trends
North Carolina State’s WRs has averaged just 11.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-10th-worst among FBS WRs. Duke’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best among P5 defenses.
North Carolina State’s WRs has averaged just 11.3 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-4th-worst among Power 5 WRs. Duke’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best among FBS defenses.
North Carolina State’s TEs has gained 531 yards on 32 receptions (16.6 YPR) this season — T-best among ACC TEs. Duke’s defense has allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception this season — best among ACC defenses.
North Carolina State TEs have averaged 22.0 yards per reception (154 yards/7 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.8
North Carolina State’s WRs has gained 1,368 yards on 124 receptions (just 11.0 YPR) this season — 4th-worst among Power 5 WRs. Duke’s defense has allowed just 10.5 Yards Per Reception this season — best among ACC defenses.
Duke Blue Devils Defensive Stats & Trends
Duke allowed 9 receptions for 20+ yards last week– T-most in FBS
Duke defense allowed 9 completions for 20 or more yards last week– T-most in FBS
Duke allowed 5 TD passes last week– 2nd-most among Power Conference Teams
Duke defense allowed 9 completions for 20 or more yards last week– T-most among Power Conference Teams
Duke has forced 15 fumbles this season– T-most among Power Conference Teams
North Carolina State Wolfpack Defensive Stats & Trends
North Carolina State sacked opposing QBs on 19% of pass attempts (3/16) last week– 5th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%
North Carolina State sacked opposing QBs on 19% of pass attempts (3/16) last week– 7th-best in FBS; Average: 7%
North Carolina State tackled opponents for a loss on 13 of 39 rushing attempts (33% TFL%) last week– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 15%.
North Carolina State has tackled opponents for a loss on 60 of 290 rushing attempts (21% TFL%) this season– T-15th-best in FBS; Average: 16%.
North Carolina State tackled opponents for a loss on 13 of 39 rushing attempts (33% TFL%) last week– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 15%.
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