Florida vs Texas Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

BetMGM Betting Nov 05, 2024, 3:12 PM

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FILE - Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian looks on before the Sugar Bowl CFP NCAA semifinal college football game against Washington, Monday, Jan. 1, 2024, in New Orleans. Sarkisian’s contract extension will push his guaranteed salary to $10.3 million this year under details released by the school's Board of Regents. That will make him one of the highest paid coaches in the country after leading the Longhorns to the Big 12 championship and their first appearance in the College Football Playoff (AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman, File)

(AP Photo/Jacob Kupferman)

Texas is a -21.5 point favorite vs. Florida
Florida vs. Texas Total (Over/Under): 47.5 points
TV Channel: ABC

The Florida Gators (4-4) visit Darrell K Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium to take on the Texas Longhorns (7-1) on Nov. 9 in Austin, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EST.

Texas is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -21.5 (-110).

The Florida vs. Texas Over/Under is 47.5 total points.

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Florida vs. Texas Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Florida	+21.5 -110	47.5 -105	+1100
Texas	-21.5 -110	47.5 -115	-2500

Florida vs Texas Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Texas will win this game with 95.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Florida and Texas, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Florida vs Texas Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Florida will cover the spread with 53.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Florida Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Florida has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+7.10 Units / 64% ROI)
Florida have covered the 1H Spread in their last 5 away games (+5.00 Units / 93% ROI)
Florida has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.60 Units / 37% ROI)
Florida has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.80 Units / 36% ROI)
Florida has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 2 of their last 4 away games (+3.40 Units / 85% ROI)

Texas Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Texas has hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+8.25 Units / 4% ROI)
Texas has hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+6.55 Units / 1% ROI)
Texas have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.80 Units / 36% ROI)
Texas has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 4 games at home (+1.55 Units / 8% ROI)
Texas has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.80 Units / 10% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Florida players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Florida Player Prop Bets Today

Elijhah Badger has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Eugene Wilson III has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
DJ Lagway has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Graham Mertz has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
DJ Lagway has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 43% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Texas players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Texas Player Prop Best Bets Today

Isaiah Bond has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Jaydon Blue has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 81% ROI)
Quinn Ewers has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 76% ROI)
Quintrevion Wisner has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 82% ROI)
Quinn Ewers has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 65% ROI)

Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Florida is 5-3 against the spread this college football season (+1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI).

Florida is 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.85 Units / -9.88% ROI
Florida is 5-3 when betting the Over for +1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI
Florida is 3-5 when betting the Under for -2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI

Texas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Texas is 5-3 against the spread this college football season (+1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI).

Texas is 6-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.15 Units / 0.34% ROI
Texas is 3-4 when betting the Over for -1.4 Units / -15.91% ROI
Texas is 4-3 when betting the Under for +0.7 Units / 7.95% ROI

Florida: Keys to the Game vs. Texas

Florida is 2-8 (.200) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– T-23rd-worst in FBS; Average: .386

Florida is 2-8 (.200) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– T-6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .438

Florida is 10-2 (.833) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– 39th-best in FBS; Average: .752

Florida is 4-9 (.308) when allowing more than 3 explosive runs since the 2023 season– T-14th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .472

Texas: Keys to the Game vs. Florida

Texas is undefeated (12-0) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .597

Texas is 19-3 (.864) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2023 season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: .583

Texas is 13-1 (.929) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– T-4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .701

Texas is 19-1 (.950) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .675

Matchup Notes for Florida vs. Texas

Texas has averaged 12.7 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-30th-best among FBS skill players. Florida’s defense has allowed 12.9 RAC since the 2023 season — worst among SEC defenses.

Texas’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.5% of 752 attempts since the 2023 season — T-16th-best among FBS offenses. Florida’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.0% of attempts since the 2023 season — T-17th-worst among FBS defenses.

Florida has gained 1,958 yards on 137 receptions (14.3 YPR) this season — T-5th-best among Power 5 skill players. Texas’s defense has allowed just 7.9 Yards Per Reception this season — best among FBS defenses.

Florida’s WRs has gained 1,584 yards on 92 receptions (17.2 YPR) this season — 2nd-best among Power 5 WRs. Texas’s defense has allowed just 7.9 Yards Per Reception this season — best among P5 defenses.

Florida Offensive Stats & Trends

Florida WRs have averaged just 1.0 yards per reception (1 yards/1 catches) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 11.4

Florida Skill Players have averaged 16.8 yards per reception (352 yards/21 catches) with 4-6 yards to go this season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 11.8

Texas Offensive Stats & Trends

Texas’s WRs has averaged 14.2 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 4th-best among SEC WRs. Florida’s defense has allowed 14.4 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — 12th-worst among FBS defenses.

Texas’s WRs has averaged 14.2 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-24th-best among FBS WRs. Florida’s defense has allowed 14.4 RAC to WRs since the 2023 season — 12th-worst among FBS defenses.

Florida Gators Defensive Stats & Trends

Florida intercepted 3 of 325 attempts (108.3 pass attempts per int.) in the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 36.5

Florida has allowed a Completion Pct of 100% (5 completions/5 attempts) on 3rd and short this season– worst in the SEC; Average: 63%

Florida allowed 6.0 touchdowns per interception (18 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) in the 2023 season– T-2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 1.8

Florida allowed 6.0 touchdowns per interception (18 TDs allowed, and 3 INT) in the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 1.7

Florida has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 23 of 565 attempts (4%) since the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 2%

Texas Longhorns Defensive Stats & Trends

Texas opponents has averaged 79.0 Passing Attempts per TD (237 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) this season– best in FBS; Average: 21.1

Texas has allowed just 7.9 yards per completion (1,084 yards/138 completions) this season– best in the SEC; Average: 11.5

Texas has allowed just 7.9 yards per completion (1,084 yards/138 completions) this season– best in FBS; Average: 11.8

Texas opponents has averaged 79.0 Passing Attempts per TD (237 Pass Attempts/3 Passing TDs) this season– best in the SEC; Average: 26.8

Texas has allowed just 7.9 yards per completion (1,084 yards/138 completions) this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.6