- The UNLV is a -1.5 point favorite vs. Fresno St
- The Fresno State vs. UNLV Total(Over/Under): 48.5 points
- TV Channel: FS1
The Fresno State Bulldogs (3-1) visit Allegiant Stadium to take on the UNLV Rebels (3-0) on Sep. 28 in Paradise, NV. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.
UNLV is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-105).
The Fresno State vs. UNLV Over/Under is 48.5 total points.
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Fresno State vs. UNLV Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Fresno State | +1.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | +100 |
| UNLV | -1.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | -120 |
Fresno State vs UNLV Prediction:
The winning team model predicts UNLV will win this game with 59.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Fresno St and UNLV, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Fresno State vs UNLV Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UNLV will cover the spread with 54.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on UNLV vs Fresno St and all games with BetMGM
Fresno State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Fresno State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 away games (+3.00 Units / 54% ROI)
- Fresno State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 11 games (+2.35 Units / 9% ROI)
- Fresno State has hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.90 Units / 35% ROI)
UNLV Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- UNLV has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 12 games (+6.40 Units / 27% ROI)
- UNLV has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.75 Units / 34% ROI)
- UNLV have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.55 Units / 32% ROI)
- UNLV has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+3.90 Units / 51% ROI)
- UNLV have covered the 1Q Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.40 Units / 24% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Fresno State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Fresno State Player Prop Bets Today
- Malik Sherrod has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Mikey Keene has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 95% ROI)
- Jalen Moss has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 95% ROI)
- Elijah Gilliam has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Mac Dalena has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for UNLV players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best UNLV Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Jacob De Jesus has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.05 Units / 95% ROI)
- Jai’Den Thomas has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Ricky White has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Fresno State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Fresno St is 2-0 against the spread this college football season (+2 Units / 60.61% ROI).
UNLV Against the Spread (ATS) Record
UNLV is 3-0 against the spread this college football season (+3 Units / 89.55% ROI).
Fresno State: Keys to the Game vs. UNLV
Fresno State is undefeated (9-0) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .598
Fresno State is 9-1 (.900) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2023 season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .590
Fresno State is 10-1 (.909) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .549
Fresno State is 9-2 (.818) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– 6th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .572
UNLV: Keys to the Game vs. Fresno State
UNLV is 8-5 (.615) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-7th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .395
UNLV is 10-5 (.667) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2023 season– T-14th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .526
UNLV is 6-5 (.545) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .379
UNLV is 11-3 (.786) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2023 season– T-33rd-best in FBS; Average: .651
Matchup Notes for Fresno State vs. UNLV
UNLV’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 16.0% of 50 attempts this season — T-13th-best among FBS offenses. Fresno State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 6.2% of attempts this season — 29th-worst among FBS defenses.
UNLV has gained 390 yards on 23 receptions (17.0 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among FBS skill players. Fresno State’s defense has allowed just 10.2 Yards Per Reception this season — T-32nd-best among FBS defenses.
UNLV has 23 receptions in 3 games (just 7.7 per game) this season — T-3rd-worst among FBS skill players. Fresno State’s defense has allowed 21.5 receptions per game this season — T-19th-worst among FBS defenses.
Mac Dalena (FRE) has gained 20 or more yards on 38.9% of 18 receptions this season — 6th-best of Qualified Skill Players. UNLV’s defense has allowed 20+ yards on 19.2% of receptions this season — 29th-best among FBS defenses.
Fresno State Offensive Stats & Trends
Fresno State RBs have picked up first downs on 15 receptions on 3rd down since the 2023 season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams
Fresno State RBs have picked up first downs on 6 receptions in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– most among FBS Teams
Fresno State RBs have been targeted 18 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Fresno State RBs have been targeted 6 times in the Red Zone this season– T-3rd-most among FBS Teams
Fresno State RBs have 15 receptions in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– most among FBS Teams
UNLV Offensive Stats & Trends
UNLV’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 16.0% of 50 attempts this season — T-13th-best among FBS offenses. Fresno State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 6.2% of attempts this season — 29th-worst among FBS defenses.
UNLV Skill Players have averaged just 7.7 receptions per game (23/3) this season– T-3rd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 18.9
UNLV Skill Players have caught just 1 of 7 passes (14% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long this season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 58%
UNLV has gained 390 yards on 23 receptions (17.0 YPR) this season — 3rd-best among FBS skill players. Fresno State’s defense has allowed just 10.2 Yards Per Reception this season — T-32nd-best among FBS defenses.
UNLV Skill Players have averaged 20.1 yards per reception (321 yards/16 catches) with 7-10 yards to go this season– 3rd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.6
Fresno State Bulldogs Defensive Stats & Trends
Fresno State has allowed one rushing TD on 120 carries this season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 20
Fresno State has allowed one rushing TD on 14 carries in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.1
Fresno State has not tackled opponents for a loss on any of 46 rushing attempts on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 12%.
Fresno State did not record a sack (53 pass attempts) last week– T-worst in FBS; Average: 16.4
Fresno State did not record a sack (53 pass attempts) last week– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 20.0
UNLV Rebels Defensive Stats & Trends
UNLV has allowed 77 receptions for 20+ yards since the 2023 season– 2nd-most in FBS
UNLV has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 23 of 494 attempts (5%) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 2%
UNLV has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 77 of 494 attempts (16%) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%
UNLV has tackled opponents for a loss on just 7 of 101 rushing attempts (7% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 14%.
UNLV has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 77 of 494 attempts (16%) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 10%
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