Houston vs BYU Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 14

BetMGM Betting Nov 26, 2024, 2:26 PM

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(AP Photo/Steve Conner)

BYU is a -12.5 point favorite vs. Houston
Houston vs. BYU Total (Over/Under): 41.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN

The Houston Cougars (4-7) visit LaVell Edwards Stadium to take on the BYU Cougars (9-2) on Nov. 30 in Provo, UT. Kickoff is scheduled for 10:15pm EST.

BYU is a betting favorite in Week 14, with the spread sitting at -12.5 (-120).

The Houston vs. BYU Over/Under is 41.5 total points.

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Houston vs. BYU Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Houston	+12.5 +100	41.5 -110	+425
BYU	-12.5 -120	41.5 -110	-600

Houston vs BYU Prediction:

The winning team model predicts BYU will win this game with 81.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Houston and BYU, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Houston vs BYU Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts BYU will cover the spread with 66.8% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Houston Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Houston has hit the Game Total Under in 10 of their last 11 games (+8.90 Units / 74% ROI)
Houston has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 games (+8.05 Units / 134% ROI)
Houston has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.45 Units / 20% ROI)
Houston has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games (+1.55 Units / 21% ROI)
Houston have covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.45 Units / 13% ROI)

BYU Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

BYU has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+10.10 Units / 61% ROI)
BYU has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.70 Units / 48% ROI)
BYU has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 games (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)
BYU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.85 Units / 50% ROI)
BYU have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Houston players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Houston Player Prop Bets Today

Joseph Manjack IV has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 95% ROI)
Stephon Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Re’Shaun Sanford II has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Donovan Smith has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 67% ROI)
Donovan Smith has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 54% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for BYU players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best BYU Player Prop Best Bets Today

Darius Lassiter has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 89% ROI)
LJ Martin has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Hinckley Ropati has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 82% ROI)
Jake Retzlaff has hit the Rushing Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
Kody Epps has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)

Houston Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Houston is 5-6 against the spread this college football season (-1.55 Units / -12.92% ROI).

Houston is 4-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +4.4 Units / 34.78% ROI
Houston is 1-10 when betting the Over for -10 Units / -82.64% ROI
Houston is 10-1 when betting the Under for +8.9 Units / 73.55% ROI

BYU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

BYU is 7-4 against the spread this college football season (+2.6 Units / 21.14% ROI).

BYU is 8-2 when betting on the Moneyline for +10.1 Units / 61.4% ROI
BYU is 8-3 when betting the Over for +4.7 Units / 38.84% ROI
BYU is 3-8 when betting the Under for -5.8 Units / -47.93% ROI

Houston: Keys to the Game vs. BYU

Houston is winless (0-8) when intercepting no passes since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .399

Houston is winless (0-6) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .428

Houston is 1-7 (.125) when losing at least one fumble since the 2023 season– T-7th-worst in FBS; Average: .438

Houston is 1-7 (.125) when not forcing a fumble this season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .504

BYU: Keys to the Game vs. Houston

BYU is winless (0-4) when intercepting no passes since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .354

BYU is winless (0-4) when intercepting no passes since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .399

BYU is 9-2 (.818) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-17th-best in FBS; Average: .579

BYU is 9-4 (.692) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-37th-best in FBS; Average: .605

Matchup Notes for Houston vs. BYU

BYU has 413 receptions in 23 games (just 18.0 per game) since the 2023 season — 5th-worst among Big 12 skill players. Houston’s defense has allowed 19.7 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-32nd-worst among FBS defenses.

BYU’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.6% of 333 attempts this season — 25th-best among FBS offenses. Houston’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.3% of attempts this season — 5th-best among Big 12 defenses.

BYU’s TEs has 72 receptions in 23 games (just 3.1 per game) since the 2023 season — 5th-worst among Big 12 TEs. Houston’s defense has allowed 19.7 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-32nd-worst among FBS defenses.

Houston’s TEs has gained 216 yards on 24 receptions (just 9.0 YPR) this season — 4th-worst among Big 12 TEs. BYU’s defense has allowed just 8.0 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — 10th-best among FBS defenses.

Houston has gained 1,647 yards on 164 receptions (just 10.0 YPR) this season — worst among Big 12 skill players. BYU’s defense has allowed just 10.9 Yards Per Reception this season — T-3rd-best among Big 12 defenses.

Houston’s WRs has gained 1,175 yards on 104 receptions (just 11.3 YPR) this season — worst among Big 12 WRs. BYU’s defense has allowed just 10.9 Yards Per Reception this season — T-27th-best among FBS defenses.

Houston Offensive Stats & Trends

Houston has averaged just 10.6 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — worst among Big 12 skill players. BYU’s defense has allowed just 11.2 RAC since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among Big 12 defenses.

Houston has gained 4,508 yards on 422 receptions (just 10.7 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-worst among Big 12 skill players. BYU’s defense has allowed just 11.2 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — T-31st-best among FBS defenses.

BYU Offensive Stats & Trends

BYU’s RBs has averaged 10.4 yards after the catch this season — T-19th-best among FBS RBs. Houston’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC this season — T-18th-best among FBS defenses.

BYU’s RBs has averaged 10.4 yards after the catch this season — T-19th-best among FBS RBs. Houston’s defense has allowed just 10.4 RAC this season — 2nd-best among Big 12 defenses.

Houston Cougars Defensive Stats & Trends

Houston has allowed first downs on 48% of pass attempts in the Red Zone this season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 23%

Houston has allowed first downs on 40% of pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 22%

Houston has allowed first downs on 48% of pass attempts in the Red Zone this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 23%

Houston has allowed first downs on 48% of pass attempts in the Red Zone this season– worst in FBS; Average: 23%

Houston has allowed first downs on 40% of pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 21%

BYU Cougars Defensive Stats & Trends

BYU has sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (25/752) since the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 6%

BYU sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (11/408) in the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 6%

BYU has not recorded a sack (40 pass attempts) in the Red Zone this season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 14.9

BYU has sacked opposing QBs just once on 79 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.8

BYU has sacked opposing QBs just once on 79 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: 15.0