- The Iowa St. is a -14 point favorite vs. Houston
- The Iowa State vs. Houston Total(Over/Under): 43 points
- TV Channel: FS1
The Iowa State Cyclones (3-0) visit TDECU Stadium to take on the Houston Cougars (1-3) on Sep. 28 in Houston, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT.
Iowa St. is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -14 (-115).
The Iowa State vs. Houston Over/Under is 43 total points.
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Iowa State vs. Houston Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Iowa State | -14 -115 | 43 -110 | -650 |
| Houston | +14 -105 | 43 -110 | +450 |
Iowa State vs Houston Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Iowa State will win this game with 81.5% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Iowa St. and Houston, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Iowa State vs Houston Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Houston will cover the spread with 52.9% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Iowa State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Iowa State has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 away games (+7.55 Units / 62% ROI)
- Iowa State has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.90 Units / 64% ROI)
- Iowa State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 away games (+4.15 Units / 55% ROI)
- Iowa State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 5 of their last 7 away games (+3.85 Units / 48% ROI)
- Iowa State have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 7 away games (+2.80 Units / 37% ROI)
Houston Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Houston has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
- Houston has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+2.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- Houston have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- Houston has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+0.80 Units / 12% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Iowa State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Iowa State Player Prop Bets Today
- Rocco Becht has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 4 away games (+5.15 Units / 87% ROI)
- Rocco Becht has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 86% ROI)
- Jayden Higgins has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+2.80 Units / 47% ROI)
- Jaylin Noel has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 7 games (+2.60 Units / 30% ROI)
- Abu Sama III has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Houston players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Houston Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Joseph Manjack IV has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 38% ROI)
- Donovan Smith has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Parker Jenkins has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Donovan Smith has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Donovan Smith has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 77% ROI)
Iowa State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Iowa St. is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.1 Units / -3.13% ROI).
Houston Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Houston is 2-2 against the spread this college football season (-0.15 Units / -3.45% ROI).
Iowa State: Keys to the Game vs. Houston
Iowa State is 7-5 (.583) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-31st-best in FBS; Average: .445
Iowa State is 10-4 (.714) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .620
Iowa State is 7-1 (.875) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2023 season– T-11th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .702
Iowa State is 8-5 (.615) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-32nd-best in FBS; Average: .457
Houston: Keys to the Game vs. Iowa State
Houston is 2-8 (.200) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .614
Houston is 4-9 (.308) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2023 season– 7th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .552
Houston is 2-10 (.167) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .513
Houston is 1-10 (.091) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .448
Matchup Notes for Iowa State vs. Houston
Houston’s TEs has gained 93 yards on 10 receptions (just 9.3 YPR) this season — 4th-worst among Big 12 TEs. Iowa State’s defense has allowed just 8.7 Yards Per Reception this season — best among Big 12 defenses.
Houston has gained 703 yards on 71 receptions (just 9.9 YPR) this season — worst among Big 12 skill players. Iowa State’s defense has allowed just 8.7 Yards Per Reception this season — best among Big 12 defenses.
Houston’s offense has thrown for 703 passing yards in 4 games (just 175.8 YPG) this season — 28th-worst among FBS offenses. Iowa State’s defense has allowed just 112.7 passing yards per game this season — best among Big 12 defenses.
Iowa State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 16.3% of 86 attempts this season — T-11th-best among FBS offenses. Houston’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.6% of attempts this season — 4th-worst among Big 12 defenses.
Iowa State’s TEs has gained 164 yards on 11 receptions (14.9 YPR) this season — best among Big 12 TEs. Houston’s defense has allowed just 10.2 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-best among Big 12 defenses.
Iowa State’s WRs have 201.0 receiving yards per game this season — 5th-best among Big 12 WRs. Houston’s defense has allowed just 101.8 receiving yards per game to WRs this season — 26th-best among FBS defenses.
Iowa State Offensive Stats & Trends
Iowa State Skill Players have averaged 22.6 yards per reception (339 yards/15 catches) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 10.5
Iowa State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 16.3% of 86 attempts this season — T-11th-best among FBS offenses. Houston’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.6% of attempts this season — 4th-worst among Big 12 defenses.
Iowa State’s TEs has gained 164 yards on 11 receptions (14.9 YPR) this season — best among Big 12 TEs. Houston’s defense has allowed just 10.2 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-best among Big 12 defenses.
Iowa State WRs have averaged 24.8 yards per reception (347 yards/14 catches) in short yardage situations since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.4
Iowa State Skill Players have averaged 21.3 yards per reception (512 yards/24 catches) in short yardage situations since the 2023 season– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 11.3
Houston Offensive Stats & Trends
Houston’s TEs has gained 93 yards on 10 receptions (just 9.3 YPR) this season — 4th-worst among Big 12 TEs. Iowa State’s defense has allowed just 8.7 Yards Per Reception this season — best among Big 12 defenses.
Houston has gained 703 yards on 71 receptions (just 9.9 YPR) this season — worst among Big 12 skill players. Iowa State’s defense has allowed just 8.7 Yards Per Reception this season — best among Big 12 defenses.
Houston’s offense has thrown for 703 passing yards in 4 games (just 175.8 YPG) this season — 28th-worst among FBS offenses. Iowa State’s defense has allowed just 112.7 passing yards per game this season — best among Big 12 defenses.
Houston’s QBs has thrown for 703 passing yards in 4 games (just 175.8 YPG) this season — 29th-worst among FBS teams. Iowa State’s defense has allowed just 112.7 passing yards per game this season — 4th-best among FBS defenses.
Houston has gained 703 yards on 71 receptions (just 9.9 YPR) this season — T-18th-worst among FBS skill players. Iowa State’s defense has allowed just 8.7 Yards Per Reception this season — best among Big 12 defenses.
Iowa State Cyclones Defensive Stats & Trends
Iowa State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 41% (26 completions/63 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go since the 2023 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 60%
Iowa State opponents has averaged 7.9 Passing Attempts per TD (63 Pass Attempts/8 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.9
Iowa State opponents has averaged 7.9 Passing Attempts per TD (63 Pass Attempts/8 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 3.9
Iowa State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 41% (36 completions/87 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 55%
Iowa State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 33% (21 completions/63 attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: 53%
Houston Cougars Defensive Stats & Trends
Houston has allowed first downs on 75% of pass attempts in the Red Zone this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 24%
Houston has not forced a fumble (139 carries) this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 41.4
Houston has not forced a fumble (139 carries) this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 52.7
Houston has allowed 6 first down receptions in the Red Zone this season– T-2nd-most among Power Conference Teams
Houston has allowed a Completion Pct of 67% (320 completions/476 attempts) since the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 60%
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