Iowa St. vs Kansas Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

BetMGM Betting Nov 05, 2024, 3:17 PM

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Kansas player number 6 about to throw a NFL game ball.

(AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)

Iowa St. is a -3 point favorite vs. Kansas
Iowa State vs. Kansas Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
TV Channel: FS1

The Iowa State Cyclones (7-1) visit GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to take on the Kansas Jayhawks (2-6) on Nov. 9 in Kansas City, MO. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EST.

Iowa St. is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).

The Iowa State vs. Kansas Over/Under is 50.5 total points.

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Iowa State vs. Kansas Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Iowa State	-3 -105	50.5 -110	-150
Kansas	+3 -115	50.5 -110	+125

Iowa State vs Kansas Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Iowa State will win this game with 58.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Iowa St. and Kansas, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Iowa State vs Kansas Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Kansas will cover the spread with 67.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Iowa State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Iowa State has hit the Moneyline in their last 6 away games (+8.00 Units / 45% ROI)
Iowa State have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 60% ROI)
Iowa State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 5 of their last 10 games (+1.90 Units / 17% ROI)
Iowa State has hit the Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
Iowa State have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 10 games (+0.20 Units / 2% ROI)

Kansas Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Kansas has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.50 Units / 26% ROI)
Kansas have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.95 Units / 52% ROI)
Kansas has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.35 Units / 20% ROI)
Kansas has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
Kansas has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+1.50 Units / 20% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Iowa State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Iowa State Player Prop Bets Today

Jaylon Jackson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 81% ROI)
Benjamin Brahmer has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Jaylin Noel has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Rocco Becht has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Rocco Becht has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Kansas players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Kansas Player Prop Best Bets Today

Luke Grimm has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.05 Units / 93% ROI)
Jalon Daniels has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 56% ROI)
Jalon Daniels has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 95% ROI)
Lawrence Arnold has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Quentin Skinner has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 77% ROI)

Iowa State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Iowa St. is 5-3 against the spread this college football season (+1.7 Units / 19.54% ROI).

Iowa State is 6-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 2.39% ROI
Iowa State is 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI
Iowa State is 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI

Kansas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Kansas is 2-6 against the spread this college football season (-4.65 Units / -52.54% ROI).

Kansas is 1-6 when betting on the Moneyline for -8.75 Units / -74.47% ROI
Kansas is 5-3 when betting the Over for +1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI
Kansas is 3-5 when betting the Under for -2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI

Iowa State: Keys to the Game vs. Kansas

Iowa State is winless (0-4) when intercepting no passes since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .397

Iowa State is 12-6 (.667) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-30th-best in FBS; Average: .529

Iowa State is winless (0-4) when intercepting no passes since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .354

Iowa State is 9-2 (.818) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2023 season– T-24th-best in FBS; Average: .644

Kansas: Keys to the Game vs. Iowa State

Kansas is 5-8 (.385) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– 34th-worst in FBS; Average: .505

Kansas is 5-8 (.385) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– 15th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .530

Kansas is 9-3 (.750) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-14th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .598

Kansas is 6-9 (.400) when the opposing team commits less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-31st-worst in FBS; Average: .537

Matchup Notes for Iowa State vs. Kansas

Kansas has averaged 14.4 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-8th-best among FBS skill players. Iowa State’s defense has allowed just 11.2 RAC since the 2023 season — 4th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Kansas’s WRs has averaged 15.9 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — T-7th-best among FBS WRs. Iowa State’s defense has allowed just 11.2 RAC since the 2023 season — 4th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Kansas has 326 receptions in 21 games (just 15.5 per game) since the 2023 season — 22nd-worst among FBS skill players. Iowa State’s defense has allowed just 17.6 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among Big 12 defenses.

Iowa State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.2% of 250 attempts this season — T-20th-best among FBS offenses. Kansas’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.9% of attempts this season — 4th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Iowa State has gained 2,060 yards on 153 receptions (13.5 YPR) this season — T-21st-best among FBS skill players. Kansas’s defense has allowed 12.4 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Iowa State Offensive Stats & Trends

Iowa State Skill Players have no touchdowns on 14 receptions in close and late situations this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.5

Iowa State’s WRs has gained 1,634 yards on 112 receptions (14.6 YPR) this season — T-28th-best among FBS WRs. Kansas’s defense has allowed 12.4 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

Kansas Offensive Stats & Trends

Kansas’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.0% of 530 attempts since the 2023 season — 9th-best among FBS offenses. Iowa State’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.4% of attempts since the 2023 season — T-23rd-best among FBS defenses.

Kansas’s WRs has gained 3,413 yards on 215 receptions (15.9 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-4th-best among Power 5 WRs. Iowa State’s defense has allowed just 11.2 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among Big 12 defenses.

Iowa State Cyclones Defensive Stats & Trends

Iowa State has allowed 20 rushing TDs on 727 carries (36.4 Carries Per TD) since the 2023 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 23.4

Iowa State opponents has averaged 6.5 Passing Attempts per TD (78 Pass Attempts/12 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.9

Iowa State opponents has averaged 6.5 Passing Attempts per TD (78 Pass Attempts/12 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best in the Big 12; Average: 4.1

Iowa State opponents has averaged 33.4 Passing Attempts per TD (234 Pass Attempts/7 Passing TDs) this season– 2nd-best in the Big 12; Average: 19.5

Iowa State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 36% (28 completions/78 attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 54%

Kansas Jayhawks Defensive Stats & Trends

Kansas’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 19% of PATs since the 2023 season– highest in FBS; Average: 7%

Kansas’s opponents attempted two-point conversions on 26% of PATs in the 2023 season– highest in FBS; Average: 7%

Kansas’s opponents attempted two-point conversions on 26% of PATs in the 2023 season– highest in the Big 12; Average: 9%

Kansas has allowed 2.8 yards from scrimmage per touch (141 yards / 51 touches) in the Red Zone this season– best in the Big 12; Average: 3.8

Kansas’s opponents attempted two-point conversions on 26% of PATs in the 2023 season– highest among Power Conference Teams; Average: 8%