Football

Kentucky vs Florida Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 8

min read
Texas A&M linebacker Edgerrin Cooper (45) wraps up Florida running back Montrell Johnson Jr. (2) for a two-yard loss during the first quarter of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 5, 2022, in College Station, Texas. (AP Photo/Sam Craft)
(AP Photo/Sam Craft)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Oct 16, 2024, 2:12 PM
  • The Kentucky is a -1.5 point favorite vs. Florida
  • The Kentucky vs. Florida Total (Over/Under): 42.5 points
  • TV Channel: SECN

The Kentucky Wildcats (3-3) visit Ben Hill Griffin Stadium to take on the Florida Gators (3-3) on Oct. 19 in Gainesville, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:45pm EDT.

Kentucky is a betting favorite in Week 8, with the spread sitting at -1.5 (-110).

The Kentucky vs. Florida Over/Under is 42.5 total points.

Bet now on Florida vs Kentucky & all NCAAF games with BetMGM

Kentucky vs. Florida Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Kentucky-1.5 -11042.5 -110-120
Florida +1.5 -11042.5 -110+100

Kentucky vs Florida Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Florida will win this game with 57.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Kentucky and Florida, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Kentucky vs Florida Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Florida will cover the spread with 60.3% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

Bet now on Florida vs Kentucky and all games with BetMGM

Get up to $1,500 First Bet Offer
  • Kentucky has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 4 away games (+7.70 Units / 147% ROI)
  • Kentucky has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.50 Units / 50% ROI)
  • Kentucky has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.50 Units / 26% ROI)
  • Kentucky has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 12 games (+3.25 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Kentucky have covered the 1H Spread in 3 of their last 4 away games (+1.90 Units / 44% ROI)
  • Florida has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Florida has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Florida has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 10 games (+1.70 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Florida has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 2 of their last 8 games (+1.30 Units / 15% ROI)
  • Florida has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+0.85 Units / 15% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Kentucky players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Kentucky Player Prop Bets Today

  • Barion Brown has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Dane Key has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Demie Sumo-Karngbaye has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)
  • Brock Vandagriff has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • Brock Vandagriff has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Florida players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Florida Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Elijhah Badger has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Graham Mertz has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Kentucky Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Kentucky is 4-2 against the spread this college football season (+1.8 Units / 27.27% ROI).

  • Kentucky is 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.25 Units / -3.44% ROI
  • Kentucky is 1-5 when betting the Over for -4.5 Units / -68.18% ROI
  • Kentucky is 5-1 when betting the Under for +3.9 Units / 59.09% ROI

Florida Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Florida is 3-3 against the spread this college football season (-0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI).

  • Florida is 2-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -15.15% ROI
  • Florida is 3-3 when betting the Over for -0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI
  • Florida is 3-3 when betting the Under for -0.3 Units / -4.55% ROI

Kentucky: Keys to the Game vs. Florida

Kentucky is 2-5 (.286) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-10th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .490

Kentucky is 2-8 (.200) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-6th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .461

Kentucky is 1-4 (.200) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-9th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .444

Kentucky is 2-7 (.222) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– 21st-worst in FBS; Average: .423

Florida: Keys to the Game vs. Kentucky

Florida is 1-7 (.125) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– T-14th-worst in FBS; Average: .388

Florida is 1-7 (.125) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– T-5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .443

Matchup Notes for Kentucky vs. Florida

Florida’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.7% of 168 attempts this season — 19th-best among FBS offenses. Kentucky’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 14.8% of attempts this season — T-8th-best among FBS defenses.

Kentucky’s offense has averaged just 0.8 passing TDs per game this season — T-9th-worst among FBS offenses. Florida’s defense has allowed just 1.0 passing TDs per game this season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.

Kentucky Offensive Stats & Trends

Kentucky TEs have averaged 20.8 yards per reception (166 yards/8 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.7

Kentucky TEs have averaged 20.8 yards per reception (166 yards/8 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.2

Kentucky QBs have 8 completions for 20 or more yards with over 10 yards to go this season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

Kentucky’s offense has averaged just 0.8 passing TDs per game this season — T-9th-worst among FBS offenses. Florida’s defense has allowed just 1.0 passing TDs per game this season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.

Kentucky TEs have averaged 18.4 yards per reception (460 yards/25 catches) with 7-10 yards to go since the 2023 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.5

Florida Offensive Stats & Trends

Florida’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.7% of 168 attempts this season — 19th-best among FBS offenses. Kentucky’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 14.8% of attempts this season — T-8th-best among FBS defenses.

Florida QBs have fumbled 4 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-most among FBS Teams

Florida WRs have averaged just 1.0 yards per reception (1 yards/1 catches) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 11.9

Florida WRs have caught just 1 of 5 passes (20% Reception Pct) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst among SEC Teams; Average: 66%

Florida WRs have averaged just 1.0 yards per reception (1 yards/1 catches) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 11.3

Kentucky Wildcats Defensive Stats & Trends

Kentucky has tackled opponents for a loss on 6 of 19 rushing attempts (32% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 6th-best in FBS; Average: 15%.

Kentucky has tackled opponents for a loss on 6 of 19 rushing attempts (32% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– 4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.

Kentucky’s opponents has attempted just 20.3 passes per game this season– lowest among Power Conference Teams; Average: 30.6

Kentucky’s opponents has attempted just 20.3 passes per game this season– 2nd-lowest in FBS; Average: 30.4

Kentucky has allowed a Completion Pct of 67% (371 completions/552 attempts) since the 2023 season– T-4th-worst in FBS; Average: 61%

Florida Gators Defensive Stats & Trends

Florida has intercepted 6 of 493 attempts (82.2 pass attempts per int.) since the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 35.4

Florida has allowed 4.0 touchdowns per interception (24 TDs allowed, and 6 INT) since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.6

Florida intercepted 3 of 325 attempts (108.3 pass attempts per int.) in the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 36.5

Florida has allowed opponents to catch just 3 of 11 passes (27% Reception Pct) in close and late situations this season– best in the SEC; Average: 58%

Florida has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 22 of 493 attempts (4%) since the 2023 season– worst in the SEC; Average: 2%

Bet now on Florida vs Kentucky and all games with BetMGM

Get up to $1,500 First Bet Offer

More College Football Betting at BetMGM

BetMGM is the best online sportsbook for college football betting.

Whether you’re a first-time bettor checking out the best sportsbook promos, a casual fan betting on Georgia football national championship odds, Michigan football odds, or Ohio State playoff odds, or a longtime diehard breaking down trends for live sports betting, there are entertainment options for everyone.

Visit the sportsbook today to place a college football bet online!

BetMGM First Bet Offer
About the Author

BetMGM Betting

Read More @BETMGM

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.