- The Mississippi is a -17.5 point favorite vs. Kentucky
- The Kentucky vs. Ole Miss Total(Over/Under): 52.5 points
- TV Channel: ABC
The Kentucky Wildcats (2-2) visit Vaught-Hemingway Stadium at Hollingsworth Field to take on the Ole Miss Rebels (4-0) on Sep. 28 in Oxford, MS. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.
Mississippi is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -17.5 (-105).
The Kentucky vs. Ole Miss Over/Under is 52.5 total points.
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Kentucky vs. Ole Miss Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Kentucky | +17.5 -115 | 52.5 -105 | +600 |
| Ole Miss | -17.5 -105 | 52.5 -115 | -900 |
Kentucky vs Ole Miss Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Ole Miss will win this game with 89.4% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Kentucky and Mississippi, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Kentucky vs Ole Miss Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Ole Miss will cover the spread with 66.9% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Kentucky Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Kentucky has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 3 away games (+3.00 Units / 80% ROI)
- Kentucky has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- Kentucky has hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 3 away games (+2.45 Units / 58% ROI)
- Kentucky have covered the 1H Spread in 2 of their last 3 away games (+0.90 Units / 27% ROI)
- Kentucky have covered the Spread in 2 of their last 3 away games (+0.90 Units / 27% ROI)
Ole Miss Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Ole Miss has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 9 games (+8.00 Units / 14% ROI)
- Ole Miss has hit the 1H Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+6.75 Units / 21% ROI)
- Ole Miss has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 7 of their last 9 games (+6.30 Units / 29% ROI)
- Ole Miss have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+3.90 Units / 51% ROI)
- Ole Miss have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+3.70 Units / 28% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Kentucky players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Kentucky Player Prop Bets Today
- Barion Brown has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 89% ROI)
- Dane Key has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.85 Units / 40% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Ole Miss players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Ole Miss Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Jordan Watkins has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 81% ROI)
- Caden Prieskorn has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Jaxson Dart has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 78% ROI)
- Jaxson Dart has hit the TD Passes Under in 4 of his last 6 games (+1.50 Units / 16% ROI)
- Jaxson Dart has hit the Passing Yards Under in 4 of his last 6 games (+1.45 Units / 20% ROI)
Kentucky Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Kentucky is 3-1 against the spread this college football season (+1.9 Units / 43.18% ROI).
Ole Miss Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Mississippi is 3-0 against the spread this college football season (+3 Units / 67.42% ROI).
Kentucky: Keys to the Game vs. Ole Miss
Kentucky is 2-5 (.286) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-20th-worst in FBS; Average: .507
Kentucky is 2-5 (.286) when allowing 5 or more explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .493
Kentucky is 1-7 (.125) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .466
Kentucky is 2-6 (.250) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-8th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .490
Ole Miss: Keys to the Game vs. Kentucky
Ole Miss is undefeated (7-0) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .604
Ole Miss is undefeated (13-0) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .619
Ole Miss is 13-1 (.929) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-4th-best in FBS; Average: .632
Ole Miss is 6-1 (.857) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– 7th-best in FBS; Average: .445
Matchup Notes for Kentucky vs. Ole Miss
Ole Miss’s QBs has thrown for 1,691 passing yards in 4 games (422.8 YPG) this season — best among FBS teams. Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 142.2 passing yards per game this season — 21st-best among FBS defenses.
Ole Miss’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 19.7% of 142 attempts this season — 3rd-best among FBS offenses. Kentucky’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 15.6% of attempts this season — T-7th-best among FBS defenses.
Ole Miss’s offense has thrown for 1,691 passing yards in 4 games (422.8 YPG) this season — best among FBS offenses. Kentucky’s defense has allowed just 142.2 passing yards per game this season — 21st-best among FBS defenses.
Kentucky has 51 receptions in 4 games (just 12.8 per game) this season — T-14th-worst among FBS skill players. Ole Miss’s defense has allowed 23.0 receptions per game this season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.
Kentucky’s RBs has 6 receptions in 4 games (just 1.5 per game) this season — T-19th-worst among FBS RBs. Ole Miss’s defense has allowed 23.0 receptions per game this season — T-13th-worst among FBS defenses.
Dane Key (KEN) has gained 264 yards on 15 receptions (17.6 YPR) this season — 5th-best of Qualified Skill Players. Ole Miss’s defense has allowed just 8.8 Yards Per Reception this season — T-12th-best among FBS defenses.
Kentucky Offensive Stats & Trends
Kentucky QBs have 5 completions for 20 or more yards with over 10 yards to go this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Kentucky TEs have averaged 17.4 yards per reception (625 yards/36 catches) since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.6
Kentucky TEs have averaged 17.4 yards per reception (625 yards/36 catches) since the 2023 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.2
Kentucky TEs have averaged 17.4 yards per reception (625 yards/36 catches) since the 2023 season– best among SEC Teams; Average: 11.9
Kentucky TEs have averaged 20.1 yards per reception (141 yards/7 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.3
Ole Miss Offensive Stats & Trends
Ole Miss WRs have 26 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– most among FBS Teams
Ole Miss WRs have 26 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– most among SEC Teams
Ole Miss QBs have 28 completions for 20 or more yards this season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams
Ole Miss Skill Players have 28 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams
Ole Miss WRs have 26 receptions for 20 or more yards this season– most among Power Conference Teams
Kentucky Wildcats Defensive Stats & Trends
Kentucky has tackled opponents for a loss on just 3 of 44 rushing attempts (7% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 28th-worst in FBS; Average: 11%.
Kentucky has allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on just 6 of their 558 carries (1%) since the 2023 season– best in the SEC; Average: 3%
Kentucky has allowed a Completion Pct of 67% (339 completions/508 attempts) since the 2023 season– 8th-worst in FBS; Average: 61%
Kentucky has allowed 217.0 yards from scrimmage per game this season– 6th-best in FBS; Average: 347.8
Kentucky has allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on just 6 of their 558 carries (1%) since the 2023 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 3%
Ole Miss Rebels Defensive Stats & Trends
Ole Miss has tackled opponents for a loss on 3 of 6 rushing attempts (50% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11%.
Ole Miss has tackled opponents for a loss on 3 of 6 rushing attempts (50% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– best in FBS; Average: 11%.
Ole Miss has tackled opponents for a loss on 3 of 6 rushing attempts (50% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– best in the SEC; Average: 9%.
Ole Miss has not allowed any rushing touchdowns on 124 rushes this season– T-best in FBS; Average: 25.7
Ole Miss has allowed one passing TD (150 pass attempts) this season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: 22.6
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