- The Liberty is a -3.5 point favorite vs. Appalachian State
- The Liberty vs. Appalachian State Total(Over/Under): 62.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
The Liberty Flames (4-0) visit Kidd Brewer Stadium to take on the Appalachian State Mountaineers (2-2) on Sep. 28 in Boone, NC. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.
Liberty is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).
The Liberty vs. Appalachian State Over/Under is 62.5 total points.
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Liberty vs. Appalachian State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Liberty | -3.5 -105 | 62.5 -110 | -165 |
| Appalachian State | +3.5 -115 | 62.5 -110 | +140 |
Liberty vs Appalachian State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Liberty will win this game with 59.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Liberty and Appalachian State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Liberty vs Appalachian State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Appalachian State will cover the spread with 58.4% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on Appalachian State vs Liberty and all games with BetMGM
Liberty Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Liberty has hit the Moneyline in 11 of their last 12 games (+10.00 Units / 8% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.50 Units / 33% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.90 Units / 35% ROI)
- Liberty has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 13 games (+1.50 Units / 10% ROI)
Appalachian State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Appalachian State has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.50 Units / 23% ROI)
- Appalachian State has hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 13 games (+1.15 Units / 4% ROI)
- Appalachian State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+0.70 Units / 11% ROI)
- Appalachian State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.60 Units / 8% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Liberty players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Liberty Player Prop Bets Today
- Billy Lucas has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Kaidon Salter has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Treon Sibley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Appalachian State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Appalachian State Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Joey Aguilar has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.05 Units / 102% ROI)
- Kaedin Robinson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Eli Wilson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Christan Horn has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Kanye Roberts has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)
Liberty Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Liberty is 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.3 Units / -75% ROI).
Appalachian State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Appalachian State is 1-3 against the spread this college football season (-2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI).
Liberty: Keys to the Game vs. Appalachian State
Liberty is 12-1 (.923) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .379
Liberty is 12-1 (.923) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: .445
Liberty is 7-1 (.875) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .452
Liberty is undefeated (16-0) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .586
Appalachian State: Keys to the Game vs. Liberty
Appalachian State is 10-4 (.714) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 15th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .565
Appalachian State is 8-1 (.889) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– T-6th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .609
Appalachian State is 9-1 (.900) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– 10th-best in FBS; Average: .632
Appalachian State is 9-4 (.692) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-6th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .452
Matchup Notes for Liberty vs. Appalachian State
Appalachian State’s RBs has been targeted 30 times this season — T-4th-most among FBS RBs. Liberty’s defense has allowed 193 yards receiving to RBs — 4th-most among FBS defenses.
Liberty has gained 961 yards on 68 receptions (14.1 YPR) this season — T-26th-best among FBS skill players. Appalachian State’s defense has allowed 12.7 Yards Per Reception this season — 29th-worst among FBS defenses.
Liberty Offensive Stats & Trends
Liberty Skill Players have averaged 17.8 yards per reception (676 yards/38 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since the 2023 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 11.4
Liberty WRs caught 4 touchdown passes in the Red Zone last week– most among FBS Teams
Liberty Skill Players caught 4 touchdown passes in the Red Zone last week– T-most among FBS Teams
Liberty Skill Players picked up first downs on 4 receptions in the Red Zone last week– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Liberty Skill Players have averaged 15.6 yards per reception (3,843 yards/246 catches) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.1
Appalachian State Offensive Stats & Trends
Appalachian State RBs were targeted 5 times on 3rd down last week– most among FBS Teams
Appalachian State RBs were targeted 5 times in the 1st quarter last week– T-most among FBS Teams
Appalachian State Skill Players have averaged 23.2 receptions per game (93/4) this season– T-26th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 18.9
Appalachian State RBs have no touchdowns on 57 receptions since the 2023 season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 21.6
Appalachian State RBs have averaged 5.9 Yards per Carry (765 yards/129 carries) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– T-19th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1
Liberty Flames Defensive Stats & Trends
Liberty has sacked opposing QBs just once on 66 pass attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 8th-worst in FBS; Average: 14.9
Liberty has allowed a Completion Pct of just 46% (42 completions/91 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%
Liberty did not record a sack (56 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 16.4
Liberty did not record a sack (56 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1
Liberty allowed no passing TDs (36 pass attempts) last week– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 18.2
Appalachian State Mountaineers Defensive Stats & Trends
Appalachian State allowed rushes of 10 or more yards on 13 of 43 carries (30%) last week– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 13%
Appalachian State has one interception and 8 TD passes allowed this season– T-11th-worst in FBS; Average: 1.5
Appalachian State allowed 5 rushing TDs last week– T-2nd-most in FBS
Appalachian State has tackled opponents for a loss on 18 of 87 rushing attempts (21% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 15th-best in FBS; Average: 15%.
Appalachian State has allowed 9.9 yards from scrimmage per touch (169 yards / 17 touches) on 3rd and short this season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 5.3
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