Maryland vs Oregon Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

BetMGM Betting Nov 05, 2024, 3:36 PM

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FILE - Oregon coach Dan Lanning reacts to a play against BYU during the first half of an NCAA college football game Sept. 17, 2022, in Eugene, Ore. Oregon and head coach Dan Lanning have agreed to a contract extension that will extend his deal through the 2028 season. The Oregon Board of Trustees unanimously approved the terms of the contract Thursday, July 27, 2023. Lanning’s new deal will pay him a total of $45 million in base salary over six years. (AP Photo/Andy Nelson, File)

(AP Photo/Andy Nelson)

Oregon is a -25.5 point favorite vs. Maryland
Maryland vs. Oregon Total (Over/Under): 57.5 points
TV Channel: BTN

The Maryland Terrapins (4-4) visit Autzen Stadium to take on the Oregon Ducks (9-0) on Nov. 9 in Eugene, OR. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EST.

Oregon is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -25.5 (-110).

The Maryland vs. Oregon Over/Under is 57.5 total points.

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Maryland vs. Oregon Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Maryland	+25.5 -110	57.5 -110	+1300
Oregon	-25.5 -110	57.5 -110	-3000

Maryland vs Oregon Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Oregon will win this game with 95.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Maryland and Oregon, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Maryland vs Oregon Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Maryland will cover the spread with 89.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Maryland Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Maryland has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
Maryland have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.55 Units / 27% ROI)
Maryland has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 6 of their last 12 games (+1.60 Units / 12% ROI)
Maryland has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.25 Units / 23% ROI)
Maryland has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.85 Units / 15% ROI)

Oregon Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Oregon has hit the Moneyline in 12 of their last 13 games (+8.80 Units / 5% ROI)
Oregon has hit the Game Total Under in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.80 Units / 43% ROI)
Oregon have covered the 1H Spread in 9 of their last 14 games (+3.45 Units / 22% ROI)
Oregon have covered the Spread in 8 of their last 14 games (+1.45 Units / 9% ROI)
Oregon has hit the 1H Moneyline in 11 of their last 13 games (+0.85 Units / 1% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Maryland players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Maryland Player Prop Bets Today

Roman Hemby has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Tai Felton has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Roman Hemby has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Kaden Prather has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Oregon players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Oregon Player Prop Best Bets Today

Dillon Gabriel has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Tez Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.80 Units / 37% ROI)
Traeshon Holden has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 91% ROI)
Jordan James has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Tez Johnson has hit the Receptions Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 62% ROI)

Maryland Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Maryland is 4-4 against the spread this college football season (-0.45 Units / -5.08% ROI).

Maryland is 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.2 Units / -11.32% ROI
Maryland is 7-1 when betting the Over for +5.9 Units / 67.05% ROI
Maryland is 1-7 when betting the Under for -6.7 Units / -76.14% ROI

Oregon Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Oregon is 5-4 against the spread this college football season (+0.65 Units / 6.6% ROI).

Oregon is 8-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.5 Units / 6.17% ROI
Oregon is 4-5 when betting the Over for -1.5 Units / -15.15% ROI
Oregon is 5-4 when betting the Under for +0.6 Units / 6.06% ROI

Maryland: Keys to the Game vs. Oregon

Maryland is 7-4 (.636) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-24th-best in FBS; Average: .433

Maryland is 3-5 (.375) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-30th-worst in FBS; Average: .505

Maryland is 5-1 (.833) when allowing less than 200 passing yards since the 2023 season– T-14th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .696

Maryland is 7-2 (.778) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2023 season– T-33rd-best in FBS; Average: .624

Oregon: Keys to the Game vs. Maryland

Oregon is 10-1 (.909) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .492

Oregon is undefeated (15-0) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .619

Oregon is 21-1 (.955) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .636

Oregon is 18-2 (.900) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .598

Matchup Notes for Maryland vs. Oregon

Oregon’s QBs has thrown for 2,694 passing yards in 9 games (299.3 YPG) this season — 10th-best among FBS teams. Maryland’s defense has allowed 275.8 passing yards per game this season — worst among Big Ten defenses.

Oregon’s TEs has 49 receptions in 9 games (5.4 per game) this season — 3rd-best among Big Ten TEs. Maryland’s defense has allowed 20.9 receptions per game this season — 25th-worst among FBS defenses.

Oregon’s TEs has 49 receptions in 9 games (5.4 per game) this season — 3rd-best among Big Ten TEs. Maryland’s defense has allowed 20.9 receptions per game this season — 5th-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Maryland’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 8.4% of 333 attempts this season — 27th-worst among FBS offenses. Oregon’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.6% of attempts this season — T-21st-best among FBS defenses.

Maryland’s offense has thrown for 2,516 passing yards in 8 games (314.5 YPG) this season — 9th-best among FBS offenses. Oregon’s defense has allowed just 172.8 passing yards per game this season — 17th-best among FBS defenses.

Maryland Offensive Stats & Trends

Maryland’s QBs has thrown for 6,121 passing yards in 21 games (291.5 YPG) since the 2023 season — 13th-best among FBS teams. Oregon’s defense has allowed just 199.0 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — T-26th-best among FBS defenses.

Maryland’s WRs has gained 1,876 yards on 157 receptions (just 11.9 YPR) this season — T-23rd-worst among FBS WRs. Oregon’s defense has allowed just 10.7 Yards Per Reception this season — T-21st-best among FBS defenses.

Oregon Offensive Stats & Trends

Oregon WRs have averaged 19.2 yards per reception (615 yards/32 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 13.6

Oregon Skill Players have averaged 15.7 yards per reception (926 yards/59 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 12.5

Oregon TEs have no touchdowns on 49 receptions this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.1

Oregon TEs have no touchdowns on 49 receptions this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among Big Ten Teams; Average: 18.3

Maryland Terrapins Defensive Stats & Trends

Maryland has allowed 13.2 yards per completion (2,206 yards/167 completions) this season– 2nd-worst in the Big Ten; Average: 11.0

Maryland has allowed first downs on 45% of pass attempts in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 22%

Maryland has allowed 236.0 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 146.9

Maryland has allowed a Completion Pct of just 41% (9 completions/22 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%

Maryland has allowed first downs on 45% of pass attempts in the Red Zone this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 25%

Oregon Ducks Defensive Stats & Trends

Oregon has allowed opponents to catch just 7 of 21 passes (33% Reception Pct) in close and late situations this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%

Oregon opponents has averaged 43.7 Passing Attempts per TD (262 Pass Attempts/6 Passing TDs) this season– T-3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 22.5

Oregon opponents has averaged 34.3 Passing Attempts per TD (755 Pass Attempts/22 Passing TDs) since the 2023 season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 20.5

Oregon has allowed a Completion Pct of just 56% (146 completions/262 attempts) this season– 2nd-best in the Big Ten; Average: 62%

Oregon opponents has averaged 43.7 Passing Attempts per TD (262 Pass Attempts/6 Passing TDs) this season– T-5th-best in FBS; Average: 21.1