Navy vs Air Force Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 6

BetMGM Betting Oct 04, 2024, 11:50 AM

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(AP Photo/Gail Burton)

The Navy is a -10 point favorite vs. Air Force
The Navy vs. Air Force Total (Over/Under): 35.5 points
TV Channel: CBS

The Navy Midshipmen (4-0) visit Falcon Stadium to take on the Air Force Falcons (1-3) on Oct. 5 in USAFA, CO. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.

Navy is a betting favorite in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -10 (-110).

The Navy vs. Air Force Over/Under is 35.5 total points.

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Navy vs. Air Force Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Navy	-10 -110	35.5 -110	-400
Air Force	+10 -110	35.5 -110	+310

Navy vs Air Force Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Navy will win this game with 71.7% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Navy and Air Force, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Navy vs Air Force Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Navy will cover the spread with 71.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Navy Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Navy has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.60 Units / 34% ROI)
Navy has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.60 Units / 33% ROI)
Navy has hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 4 away games (+1.90 Units / 43% ROI)
Navy has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+0.80 Units / 4% ROI)
Navy have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 9 games (+0.70 Units / 6% ROI)

Air Force Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Air Force has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in their last 5 games at home (+5.05 Units / 91% ROI)
Air Force has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
Air Force has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.60 Units / 23% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Navy players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Navy Player Prop Bets Today

Eli Heidenreich has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Brandon Chatman has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Navy Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Navy is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 20.45% ROI).

Navy is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 27.21% ROI
Navy is 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 68.18% ROI
Navy is 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.3 Units / -75% ROI

Air Force Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Air Force is 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.3 Units / -75% ROI).

Air Force is 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.4 Units / -57.14% ROI
Air Force is 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -75% ROI
Air Force is 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 68.18% ROI

Navy: Keys to the Game vs. Air Force

Navy is 7-2 (.778) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– T-12th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .609

Navy is 6-2 (.750) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .650

Navy is 8-3 (.667) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-30th-best in FBS; Average: .535

Navy is 6-2 (.750) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-11th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .597

Air Force: Keys to the Game vs. Navy

Air Force is winless (0-5) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .392

Air Force is winless (0-5) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .320

Air Force is 6-2 (.750) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-9th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .547

Air Force is winless (0-5) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .336

Matchup Notes for Navy vs. Air Force

Air Force’s offense has thrown for 265 passing yards in 4 games (just 66.2 YPG) this season — worst among FBS offenses. Navy’s defense has allowed 267.5 passing yards per game this season — 18th-worst among FBS defenses.

Air Force’s WRs have just 70.5 receiving yards per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among FBS WRs. Navy’s defense has allowed 183.2 receiving yards per game to WRs since the 2023 season — 28th-worst among FBS defenses.

Air Force’s RBs have just 4.2 receiving yards per game since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among FBS RBs. Navy’s defense has allowed just 17.4 receiving yards per game to RBs since the 2023 season — T-23rd-best among FBS defenses.

Navy’s offense has thrown for 1,983 passing yards in 16 games (just 123.9 YPG) since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among FBS offenses. Air Force’s defense has allowed just 189.5 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 17th-best among FBS defenses.

Navy’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 26.4% of 53 attempts this season — best among FBS offenses. Air Force’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.8% of attempts this season — T-13th-best among FBS defenses.

Navy’s WRs has 35 receptions in 16 games (just 2.2 per game) since the 2023 season — worst among FBS WRs. Air Force’s defense has allowed just 16.7 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-21st-best among FBS defenses.

Navy Offensive Stats & Trends

Navy WRs have averaged 33.0 yards per reception (99 yards/3 catches) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.5

Navy Skill Players have averaged 22.2 yards per reception (666 yards/30 catches) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.2

Navy WRs have averaged just 0.8 receptions per game (3/4) this season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.7

Navy have completed passes for 20+ yards on 14 of their 53 total passing attempts (26%) this season– best among FBS Offenses; Average: 11%

Navy WRs have been targeted 2.0 times per game (8/4) this season– lowest among FBS Teams; Average: 20.5

Air Force Offensive Stats & Trends

Air Force Skill Players have averaged just 4.4 receptions per game (74/17) since the 2023 season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 18.9

Air Force Skill Players have averaged 18.6 yards per reception (1,374 yards/74 catches) since the 2023 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.1

Air Force Skill Players have no touchdowns on 21 receptions this season– worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.0

Air Force WRs have no touchdowns on 18 receptions this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.5

Air Force Skill Players have been targeted 9.0 times per game (153/17) since the 2023 season– lowest among FBS Teams; Average: 29.5

Navy Midshipmen Defensive Stats & Trends

Navy’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 29% of PATs this season– 2nd-highest among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

Navy has allowed a Completion Pct of 69% (40 completions/58 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 56%

Navy has tackled opponents for a loss on 2 of 8 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– T-3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.

Navy has tackled opponents for a loss on 2 of 8 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– T-12th-best in FBS; Average: 11%.

Navy has allowed 9.9 yards from scrimmage per touch (119 yards / 12 touches) on 3rd and short this season– T-5th-worst in FBS; Average: 5.2

Air Force Falcons Defensive Stats & Trends

Air Force has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 12 of 65 attempts (18%) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%

Air Force has allowed 293.2 yards from scrimmage per game since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 383.9

Air Force has forced 9 fumbles this season– T-2nd-most in FBS

Air Force has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 12 of 65 attempts (18%) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 9%

Air Force has allowed 113.9 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 173.9