- The Navy is a -10 point favorite vs. Air Force
- The Navy vs. Air Force Total (Over/Under): 35.5 points
- TV Channel: CBS
The Navy Midshipmen (4-0) visit Falcon Stadium to take on the Air Force Falcons (1-3) on Oct. 5 in USAFA, CO. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.
Navy is a betting favorite in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -10 (-110).
The Navy vs. Air Force Over/Under is 35.5 total points.
Bet now on Air Force vs Navy & all NCAAF games with BetMGM
Navy vs. Air Force Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Navy | -10 -110 | 35.5 -110 | -400 |
| Air Force | +10 -110 | 35.5 -110 | +310 |
Navy vs Air Force Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Navy will win this game with 71.7% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Navy and Air Force, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Navy vs Air Force Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Navy will cover the spread with 71.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
Bet now on Air Force vs Navy and all games with BetMGM
Navy Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Navy has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 9 games (+3.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- Navy has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.60 Units / 33% ROI)
- Navy has hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 4 away games (+1.90 Units / 43% ROI)
- Navy has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 10 games (+0.80 Units / 4% ROI)
- Navy have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 9 games (+0.70 Units / 6% ROI)
Air Force Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Air Force has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in their last 5 games at home (+5.05 Units / 91% ROI)
- Air Force has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 11 games (+2.60 Units / 21% ROI)
- Air Force has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.60 Units / 23% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Navy players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Navy Player Prop Bets Today
- Eli Heidenreich has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Brandon Chatman has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Navy Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Navy is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 20.45% ROI).
- Navy is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 27.21% ROI
- Navy is 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 68.18% ROI
- Navy is 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.3 Units / -75% ROI
Air Force Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Air Force is 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.3 Units / -75% ROI).
- Air Force is 0-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.4 Units / -57.14% ROI
- Air Force is 0-3 when betting the Over for -3.3 Units / -75% ROI
- Air Force is 3-0 when betting the Under for +3 Units / 68.18% ROI
Navy: Keys to the Game vs. Air Force
Navy is 7-2 (.778) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– T-12th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .609
Navy is 6-2 (.750) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .650
Navy is 8-3 (.667) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-30th-best in FBS; Average: .535
Navy is 6-2 (.750) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-11th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .597
Air Force: Keys to the Game vs. Navy
Air Force is winless (0-5) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: .392
Air Force is winless (0-5) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .320
Air Force is 6-2 (.750) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2023 season– T-9th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .547
Air Force is winless (0-5) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .336
Matchup Notes for Navy vs. Air Force
Air Force’s offense has thrown for 265 passing yards in 4 games (just 66.2 YPG) this season — worst among FBS offenses. Navy’s defense has allowed 267.5 passing yards per game this season — 18th-worst among FBS defenses.
Air Force’s WRs have just 70.5 receiving yards per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among FBS WRs. Navy’s defense has allowed 183.2 receiving yards per game to WRs since the 2023 season — 28th-worst among FBS defenses.
Air Force’s RBs have just 4.2 receiving yards per game since the 2023 season — 2nd-worst among FBS RBs. Navy’s defense has allowed just 17.4 receiving yards per game to RBs since the 2023 season — T-23rd-best among FBS defenses.
Navy’s offense has thrown for 1,983 passing yards in 16 games (just 123.9 YPG) since the 2023 season — 4th-worst among FBS offenses. Air Force’s defense has allowed just 189.5 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 17th-best among FBS defenses.
Navy’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 26.4% of 53 attempts this season — best among FBS offenses. Air Force’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.8% of attempts this season — T-13th-best among FBS defenses.
Navy’s WRs has 35 receptions in 16 games (just 2.2 per game) since the 2023 season — worst among FBS WRs. Air Force’s defense has allowed just 16.7 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-21st-best among FBS defenses.
Navy Offensive Stats & Trends
Navy WRs have averaged 33.0 yards per reception (99 yards/3 catches) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 13.5
Navy Skill Players have averaged 22.2 yards per reception (666 yards/30 catches) this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.2
Navy WRs have averaged just 0.8 receptions per game (3/4) this season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 12.7
Navy have completed passes for 20+ yards on 14 of their 53 total passing attempts (26%) this season– best among FBS Offenses; Average: 11%
Navy WRs have been targeted 2.0 times per game (8/4) this season– lowest among FBS Teams; Average: 20.5
Air Force Offensive Stats & Trends
Air Force Skill Players have averaged just 4.4 receptions per game (74/17) since the 2023 season– worst among FBS Teams; Average: 18.9
Air Force Skill Players have averaged 18.6 yards per reception (1,374 yards/74 catches) since the 2023 season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.1
Air Force Skill Players have no touchdowns on 21 receptions this season– worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 11.0
Air Force WRs have no touchdowns on 18 receptions this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.5
Air Force Skill Players have been targeted 9.0 times per game (153/17) since the 2023 season– lowest among FBS Teams; Average: 29.5
Navy Midshipmen Defensive Stats & Trends
Navy’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 29% of PATs this season– 2nd-highest among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%
Navy has allowed a Completion Pct of 69% (40 completions/58 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 56%
Navy has tackled opponents for a loss on 2 of 8 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– T-3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%.
Navy has tackled opponents for a loss on 2 of 8 rushing attempts (25% TFL%) on 3rd and short this season– T-12th-best in FBS; Average: 11%.
Navy has allowed 9.9 yards from scrimmage per touch (119 yards / 12 touches) on 3rd and short this season– T-5th-worst in FBS; Average: 5.2
Air Force Falcons Defensive Stats & Trends
Air Force has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 12 of 65 attempts (18%) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%
Air Force has allowed 293.2 yards from scrimmage per game since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 383.9
Air Force has forced 9 fumbles this season– T-2nd-most in FBS
Air Force has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 12 of 65 attempts (18%) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 9%
Air Force has allowed 113.9 yards from scrimmage per game to WRs since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 173.9
Bet now on Air Force vs Navy and all games with BetMGM
More College Football Betting at BetMGM
BetMGM is the best online sportsbook for college football betting.
Whether you’re a first-time bettor checking out the best sportsbook promos, a casual fan betting on Georgia football national championship odds, Michigan football odds, or Ohio State playoff odds, or a longtime diehard breaking down trends for live sports betting, there are entertainment options for everyone.
Visit the sportsbook today to place a college football bet online!
