- The New Mexico is a -9.5 point favorite vs. New Mexico State
- The New Mexico vs. New Mexico State Total(Over/Under): 54.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN+
The New Mexico Lobos (0-4) visit Aggie Memorial Stadium to take on the New Mexico State Aggies (1-3) on Sep. 28 in Las Cruces, NM. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT.
New Mexico is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -9.5 (-110).
The New Mexico vs. New Mexico State Over/Under is 54.5 total points.
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New Mexico vs. New Mexico State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| New Mexico | -9.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -350 |
| New Mexico State | +9.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +260 |
New Mexico vs New Mexico State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts New Mexico will win this game with 69.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both New Mexico and New Mexico State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
New Mexico vs New Mexico State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts New Mexico State will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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New Mexico Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- New Mexico has hit the Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 56% ROI)
- New Mexico has hit the Moneyline in 1 of their last 6 away games (+5.95 Units / 97% ROI)
- New Mexico has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 39% ROI)
- New Mexico have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.80 Units / 31% ROI)
- New Mexico has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games (+3.75 Units / 33% ROI)
New Mexico State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- New Mexico State has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+15.65 Units / 81% ROI)
- New Mexico State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 12 games (+11.70 Units / 79% ROI)
- New Mexico State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 5 of their last 12 games (+5.40 Units / 38% ROI)
- New Mexico State have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.45 Units / 31% ROI)
- New Mexico State has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+3.60 Units / 25% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for New Mexico players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best New Mexico Player Prop Bets Today
- Devon Dampier has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Devon Dampier has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for New Mexico State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best New Mexico State Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Kordell David has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 69% ROI)
New Mexico Against the Spread (ATS) Record
New Mexico is 2-1 against the spread this college football season (+0.9 Units / 20.45% ROI).
- New Mexico is 0-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -3 Units / -75% ROI
- New Mexico is 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 68.18% ROI
- New Mexico is 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.3 Units / -75% ROI
New Mexico State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
New Mexico State is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.25 Units / -28.09% ROI).
- New Mexico State is 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -15.38% ROI
- New Mexico State is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -2.27% ROI
- New Mexico State is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -2.27% ROI
New Mexico: Keys to the Game vs. New Mexico State
New Mexico is 2-12 (.143) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2023 season– T-6th-worst in FBS; Average: .490
New Mexico is 2-12 (.143) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2023 season– T-5th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .425
New Mexico is 2-9 (.182) when not forcing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-7th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .418
New Mexico is 2-12 (.143) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-7th-worst in FBS; Average: .463
New Mexico State: Keys to the Game vs. New Mexico
New Mexico State is 7-2 (.700) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-23rd-best in FBS; Average: .507
New Mexico State is 9-4 (.692) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– T-13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .572
New Mexico State is 9-3 (.750) when allowing less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-14th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .585
New Mexico State is 10-3 (.769) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-30th-best in FBS; Average: .604
Matchup Notes for New Mexico vs. New Mexico State
New Mexico State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 2.9% of 103 attempts this season — worst among FBS offenses. New Mexico’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 13.9% of attempts this season — 14th-best among FBS defenses.
New Mexico State’s offense has thrown for 353 passing yards in 4 games (just 88.2 YPG) this season — 3rd-worst among FBS offenses. New Mexico’s defense has allowed 278.5 passing yards per game this season — 16th-worst among FBS defenses.
New Mexico State’s QBs has thrown for 353 passing yards in 4 games (just 88.2 YPG) this season — 3rd-worst among FBS teams. New Mexico’s defense has allowed 278.5 passing yards per game this season — 16th-worst among FBS defenses.
New Mexico’s QBs has rushed for 249 yards on 34 carries (7.3 YPC) this season — 3rd-best among FBS teams. New Mexico State’s defense have allowed 5.4 YPC this season — T-16th-worst among FBS defenses.
Trace Bruckler (NM) has gained 74 yards on 11 receptions (just 6.7 YPR) this season — worst of Qualified Tight Ends. New Mexico State’s defense has allowed just 5.4 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — 4th-best among FBS defenses.
Devon Dampier (NM) has averaged inf pass attempts per sack this season — T-best of Qualified Quarterbacks. New Mexico State’s defense has allowed 31.2 pass attempts per sack this season — 18th-worst among FBS defenses.
New Mexico Offensive Stats & Trends
New Mexico QBs have 6 completions for 20 or more yards with over 10 yards to go this season– most among FBS Teams
New Mexico QBs have 18 completions for 20 or more yards with over 10 yards to go since the 2023 season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams
New Mexico RBs have been targeted 7 times in the Red Zone this season– T-most among FBS Teams
New Mexico WRs were targeted 15 times in the 4th quarter last week– 3rd-most among FBS Teams
New Mexico WRs picked up first downs on 5 receptions in close and late situations last week– most among FBS Teams
New Mexico State Offensive Stats & Trends
New Mexico State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 2.9% of 103 attempts this season — worst among FBS offenses. New Mexico’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 13.9% of attempts this season — 14th-best among FBS defenses.
New Mexico State’s offense has thrown for 353 passing yards in 4 games (just 88.2 YPG) this season — 3rd-worst among FBS offenses. New Mexico’s defense has allowed 278.5 passing yards per game this season — 16th-worst among FBS defenses.
New Mexico State Skill Players have caught just 41 of 95 passes (43% Reception Pct) this season– 2nd-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 64%
New Mexico State WRs have no touchdowns on 26 receptions this season– T-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 10.4
New Mexico State’s QBs has thrown for 353 passing yards in 4 games (just 88.2 YPG) this season — 3rd-worst among FBS teams. New Mexico’s defense has allowed 278.5 passing yards per game this season — 16th-worst among FBS defenses.
New Mexico Lobos Defensive Stats & Trends
New Mexico has allowed 7.2 touchdowns per interception (36 TDs allowed, and 5 INT) since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 1.8
New Mexico has allowed 9 first down receptions in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-most in FBS
New Mexico has one interception and 12 TD passes allowed this season– 8th-worst in FBS; Average: 1.5
New Mexico has allowed 7.2 touchdowns per interception (36 TDs allowed, and 5 INT) since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0
New Mexico has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 22 of 435 attempts (5%) since the 2023 season– worst in FBS; Average: 2%
New Mexico State Aggies Defensive Stats & Trends
New Mexico State allowed a Completion Pct of just 46% (12 completions/26 attempts) last week– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 62%
New Mexico State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 44 rushing attempts (2% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 8th-worst in FBS; Average: 11%.
New Mexico State opponents has averaged 6.4 Passing Attempts per TD (64 Pass Attempts/10 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-9th-best in FBS; Average: 3.9
New Mexico State opponents has averaged 6.4 Passing Attempts per TD (64 Pass Attempts/10 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 4th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.8
New Mexico State has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 44 rushing attempts (2% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 4th-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 12%.
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