- North Carolina is a -2.5 point favorite vs. Florida St
- North Carolina vs. Florida State Total (Over/Under): 50.5 points
- TV Channel: ACCN
The North Carolina Tar Heels (4-4) visit Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium to take on the Florida State Seminoles (1-7) on Nov. 2 in Tallahassee, FL. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30pm EDT.
North Carolina is a betting favorite in Week 10, with the spread sitting at -2.5 (-110).
The North Carolina vs. Florida State Over/Under is 50.5 total points.
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North Carolina vs. Florida State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| North Carolina | -2.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -140 |
| Florida State | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +115 |
North Carolina vs Florida State Prediction:
The winning team model predicts North Carolina will win this game with 57.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both North Carolina and Florida St, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
North Carolina vs Florida State Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Florida State will cover the spread with 59.7% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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North Carolina Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- North Carolina has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- North Carolina has hit the Game Total Under in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
- North Carolina have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 10 games (+2.00 Units / 18% ROI)
- North Carolina has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
- North Carolina has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.40 Units / 27% ROI)
Florida State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Florida State has hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 14 games (+7.70 Units / 50% ROI)
- Florida State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 86% ROI)
- Florida State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.50 Units / 31% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for North Carolina players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best North Carolina Player Prop Bets Today
- J.J. Jones has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Bryson Nesbit has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Jacolby Criswell has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Omarion Hampton has hit the Receptions Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 53% ROI)
- Jacolby Criswell has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 95% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Florida State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Florida State Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Lawrance Toafili has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 79% ROI)
- Roydell Williams has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 78% ROI)
- Ja’Khi Douglas has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)
- Malik Benson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game at home (+1.00 Units / 100% ROI)
- Hykeem Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)
North Carolina Against the Spread (ATS) Record
North Carolina is 1-6 against the spread this college football season (-5.55 Units / -63.43% ROI).
- North Carolina is 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.25 Units / -15.74% ROI
- North Carolina is 3-5 when betting the Over for -2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI
- North Carolina is 5-3 when betting the Under for +1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI
Florida State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Florida St is 3-5 against the spread this college football season (-2.55 Units / -28.65% ROI).
- Florida State is 1-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.9 Units / -88.32% ROI
- Florida State is 1-7 when betting the Over for -6.7 Units / -76.14% ROI
- Florida State is 7-1 when betting the Under for +5.9 Units / 67.05% ROI
North Carolina: Keys to the Game vs. Florida State
North Carolina is 3-9 (.250) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-12th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .440
North Carolina is 3-7 (.300) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-18th-worst in FBS; Average: .505
North Carolina is 3-8 (.273) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-21st-worst in FBS; Average: .457
North Carolina is 3-9 (.250) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-33rd-worst in FBS; Average: .384
Florida State: Keys to the Game vs. North Carolina
Florida State is 11-1 (.917) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– 11th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .719
Florida State is 6-1 (.857) when forcing at least one fumble since the 2023 season– T-24th-best in FBS; Average: .625
Florida State is 11-2 (.846) when rushing for more than 100 yards since the 2023 season– 13th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .685
Florida State is 12-5 (.706) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times since the 2023 season– T-32nd-best in FBS; Average: .585
Matchup Notes for North Carolina vs. Florida State
Florida State’s RBs has averaged 5.8 targets per game this season — T-20th-highest among FBS RBs. North Carolina’s defense has allowed 3.8 receptions per game to RBs this season — T-30th-worst among FBS defenses.
Florida State’s offense has thrown for 1,537 passing yards in 8 games (just 192.1 YPG) this season — 34th-worst among FBS offenses. North Carolina’s defense has allowed 244.8 passing yards per game this season — 29th-worst among FBS defenses.
Florida State’s offense has thrown for 1,537 passing yards in 8 games (just 192.1 YPG) this season — 34th-worst among FBS offenses. North Carolina’s defense has allowed 244.8 passing yards per game this season — 5th-worst among ACC defenses.
North Carolina’s TEs has 47 receptions in 8 games (5.9 per game) this season — T-best among ACC TEs. Florida State’s defense has allowed just 17.2 receptions per game this season — 3rd-best among ACC defenses.
North Carolina’s TEs has been targeted 84 times this season — 4th-most among FBS TEs. Florida State’s defense has allowed 1,601 receiving yards this season — 5th-fewest among ACC defenses.
North Carolina’s TEs has been targeted 84 times this season — most among ACC TEs. Florida State’s defense has allowed 1,601 receiving yards this season — 5th-fewest among ACC defenses.
North Carolina Offensive Stats & Trends
North Carolina TEs have been targeted 30 times on 3rd down this season– most among Power Conference Teams
North Carolina TEs have been targeted 57 times on 3rd down since the 2023 season– T-most among FBS Teams
North Carolina TEs have been targeted 32 times in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-3rd-most among Power Conference Teams
North Carolina TEs have been targeted 30 times on 3rd down this season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams
North Carolina TEs have been targeted 10.5 times per game (84/8) this season– highest among Power Conference Teams; Average: 5.5
Florida State Offensive Stats & Trends
Florida State’s RBs has averaged 5.8 targets per game this season — T-20th-highest among FBS RBs. North Carolina’s defense has allowed 3.8 receptions per game to RBs this season — T-30th-worst among FBS defenses.
Florida State’s offense has thrown for 1,537 passing yards in 8 games (just 192.1 YPG) this season — 34th-worst among FBS offenses. North Carolina’s defense has allowed 244.8 passing yards per game this season — 29th-worst among FBS defenses.
Florida State’s offense has thrown for 1,537 passing yards in 8 games (just 192.1 YPG) this season — 34th-worst among FBS offenses. North Carolina’s defense has allowed 244.8 passing yards per game this season — 5th-worst among ACC defenses.
Florida State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on just 8.1% of 259 attempts this season — T-24th-worst among FBS offenses. North Carolina’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.1% of attempts this season — 2nd-best among ACC defenses.
Florida State’s QBs has thrown for 1,537 passing yards in 8 games (just 192.1 YPG) this season — 35th-worst among FBS teams. North Carolina’s defense has allowed 244.8 passing yards per game this season — 29th-worst among FBS defenses.
North Carolina Tar Heels Defensive Stats & Trends
North Carolina sacked opposing QBs on 24% of pass attempts (10/41) last week– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 6%
North Carolina sacked opponents 10 times last week– most in FBS
North Carolina sacked opponents 10 times last week– most among Power Conference Teams
North Carolina sacked opposing QBs on 24% of pass attempts (10/41) last week– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 6%
North Carolina tackled opponents for a loss on 11 of 29 rushing attempts (38% TFL%) last week– best in FBS; Average: 14%.
Florida State Seminoles Defensive Stats & Trends
Florida State has intercepted 2 of 223 attempts (111.5 pass attempts per int.) this season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 33.2
Florida State allowed a Completion Pct of just 48% (201 completions/415 attempts) in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%
Florida State has intercepted 2 of 223 attempts (111.5 pass attempts per int.) this season– 7th-worst in FBS; Average: 35.6
Florida State allowed a Completion Pct of just 48% (201 completions/415 attempts) in the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 61%
Florida State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 40% (10 completions/25 attempts) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 62%
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