Ohio State vs Oregon Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 7

BetMGM Betting Oct 11, 2024, 1:11 PM

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FILE - Oregon coach Dan Lanning reacts to a play against BYU during the first half of an NCAA college football game Sept. 17, 2022, in Eugene, Ore. Oregon and head coach Dan Lanning have agreed to a contract extension that will extend his deal through the 2028 season. The Oregon Board of Trustees unanimously approved the terms of the contract Thursday, July 27, 2023. Lanning’s new deal will pay him a total of $45 million in base salary over six years. (AP Photo/Andy Nelson, File)

(AP Photo/Andy Nelson)

The Ohio State is a -3.5 point favorite vs. Oregon
The Ohio State vs. Oregon Total (Over/Under): 52.5 points
TV Channel: NBC

The Ohio State Buckeyes (5-0) visit Autzen Stadium to take on the Oregon Ducks (5-0) on Oct. 12 in Eugene, OR. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:30pm EDT.

Ohio State is a betting favorite in Week 7, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-105).

The Ohio State vs. Oregon Over/Under is 52.5 total points.

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Ohio State vs. Oregon Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Ohio State	-3.5 -105	52.5 -105	-155
Oregon	+3.5 -115	52.5 -115	+130

Ohio State vs Oregon Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Ohio State will win this game with 61.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Ohio State and Oregon, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Ohio State vs Oregon Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Oregon will cover the spread with 66.9% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Ohio State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Ohio State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+5.00 Units / 14% ROI)
Ohio State has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 10 games (+4.05 Units / 39% ROI)
Ohio State has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 8 games (+3.20 Units / 1% ROI)
Ohio State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 10 games (+3.00 Units / 27% ROI)
Ohio State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 2 of their last 3 games (+1.00 Units / 5% ROI)

Oregon Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Oregon has hit the Moneyline in their last 6 games at home (+6.00 Units / 9% ROI)
Oregon has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+2.00 Units / 27% ROI)
Oregon has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.90 Units / 28% ROI)
Oregon has hit the Game Total Under in 4 of their last 7 games at home (+0.70 Units / 9% ROI)
Oregon have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 13 games (+0.40 Units / 3% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Ohio State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Ohio State Player Prop Bets Today

Emeka Egbuka has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Devin Brown has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
TreVeyon Henderson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Devin Brown has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 80% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Oregon players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Oregon Player Prop Best Bets Today

Tez Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 61% ROI)
Terrance Ferguson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 80% ROI)
Traeshon Holden has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Ohio State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Ohio State is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -27.27% ROI).

Ohio State is 0-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +0 Units / 0% ROI
Ohio State is 3-0 when betting the Over for +3 Units / 68.18% ROI
Ohio State is 0-3 when betting the Under for -3.3 Units / -75% ROI

Oregon Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Oregon is 1-3 against the spread this college football season (-2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI).

Oregon is 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3 Units / 7.45% ROI
Oregon is 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI
Oregon is 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -4.55% ROI

Ohio State: Keys to the Game vs. Oregon

Ohio State is 10-1 (.909) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: .440

Ohio State is undefeated (14-0) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .729

Ohio State is undefeated (8-0) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .682

Ohio State is 14-2 (.875) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-4th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .599

Oregon: Keys to the Game vs. Ohio State

Oregon is 14-1 (.933) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-3rd-best in FBS; Average: .616

Oregon is 9-2 (.818) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-7th-best in FBS; Average: .440

Oregon is 13-1 (.929) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-6th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .688

Oregon is 7-1 (.875) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: .451

Matchup Notes for Ohio State vs. Oregon

Oregon has 532 receptions in 19 games (28.0 per game) since the 2023 season — best among Big Ten skill players. Ohio State’s defense has allowed just 15.2 receptions per game since the 2023 season — best among Big Ten defenses.

Oregon’s WRs has 326 receptions in 19 games (17.2 per game) since the 2023 season — T-15th-best among FBS WRs. Ohio State’s defense has allowed just 15.2 receptions per game since the 2023 season — best among Big Ten defenses.

Ohio State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.7% of 554 attempts since the 2023 season — 13th-best among FBS offenses. Oregon’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 7.5% of attempts since the 2023 season — T-9th-worst among FBS defenses.

Ohio State’s WRs has gained 1,279 yards on 84 receptions (15.2 YPR) this season — T-4th-best among Big Ten WRs. Oregon’s defense has allowed just 10.3 Yards Per Reception this season — T-21st-best among FBS defenses.

Ohio State’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 12.9% of 155 attempts this season — 28th-best among FBS offenses. Oregon’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 6.8% of attempts this season — 24th-worst among FBS defenses.

Ohio State Offensive Stats & Trends

Ohio State WRs caught 4 touchdown passes in the Red Zone last week– most among FBS Teams

Ohio State has averaged 13.0 yards after the catch since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among Big Ten skill players. Oregon’s defense has allowed just 10.2 RAC since the 2023 season — T-4th-best among FBS defenses.

Oregon Offensive Stats & Trends

Oregon has 532 receptions in 19 games (28.0 per game) since the 2023 season — best among FBS skill players. Ohio State’s defense has allowed just 15.2 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best among FBS defenses.

Oregon’s QBs has thrown for 1,471 passing yards in 5 games (294.2 YPG) this season — 19th-best among FBS teams. Ohio State’s defense has allowed just 129.8 passing yards per game this season — 4th-best among P5 defenses.

Ohio State Buckeyes Defensive Stats & Trends

Ohio State has allowed a Completion Pct of 100% (2 completions/2 attempts) in the Red Zone this season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 53%

Ohio State opponents has averaged 45.0 Passing Attempts per TD (495 Pass Attempts/11 Passing TDs) since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 21.8

Ohio State allowed opponents to rush for 20+ yards on 3 of their 27 carries (11%) last week– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 3%

Ohio State has allowed 8 rushing TDs on 613 carries (76.6 Carries Per TD) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 24.1

Ohio State opponents has averaged 45.0 Passing Attempts per TD (495 Pass Attempts/11 Passing TDs) since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 20.5

Oregon Ducks Defensive Stats & Trends

Oregon sacked opposing QBs on 23% of pass attempts (5/22) last week– T-2nd-best in FBS; Average: 6%

Oregon opponents has averaged 74.0 Passing Attempts per TD (148 Pass Attempts/2 Passing TDs) this season– 5th-best in FBS; Average: 21.7

Oregon opponents has averaged 74.0 Passing Attempts per TD (148 Pass Attempts/2 Passing TDs) this season– 5th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 23.6

Oregon sacked opposing QBs on 23% of pass attempts (5/22) last week– best in the Big Ten; Average: 7%

Oregon opponents has averaged 74.0 Passing Attempts per TD (148 Pass Attempts/2 Passing TDs) this season– 2nd-best in the Big Ten; Average: 25.6