Oregon vs UCLA Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 5

BetMGM Betting Sep 27, 2024, 12:03 PM

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UCLA running back TJ Harden (25) runs during an NCAA college football game against Stanford, Saturday, Oct. 21, 2023, in Stanford, Calif. (AP Photo/Scot Tucker)

(AP Photo/Scot Tucker)

The Oregon is a -25.5 point favorite vs. UCLA
The Oregon vs. UCLA Total(Over/Under): 55.5 points
TV Channel: FOX

The Oregon Ducks (3-0) visit Rose Bowl to take on the UCLA Bruins (1-2) on Sep. 28 in Pasadena, CA. Kickoff is scheduled for 11:00pm EDT.

Oregon is a betting favorite in Week 5, with the spread sitting at -25.5 (-110).

The Oregon vs. UCLA Over/Under is 55.5 total points.

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Oregon vs. UCLA Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
Oregon	-25.5 -110	55.5 -110	-3000
UCLA	+25.5 -110	55.5 -110	+1300

Oregon vs UCLA Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Oregon will win this game with 95.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Oregon and UCLA, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Oregon vs UCLA Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts UCLA will cover the spread with 66.3% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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Oregon Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Oregon has hit the Moneyline in 10 of their last 12 games (+5.30 Units / 4% ROI)
Oregon have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
Oregon has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.65 Units / 24% ROI)
Oregon has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 4 of their last 6 away games (+1.35 Units / 19% ROI)
Oregon has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 13 games (+0.40 Units / 3% ROI)

UCLA Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

UCLA has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
UCLA has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+3.60 Units / 26% ROI)
UCLA has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.70 Units / 44% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Oregon players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Oregon Player Prop Bets Today

Tez Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 7 of his last 8 games (+5.80 Units / 61% ROI)
Jordan James has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Terrance Ferguson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 80% ROI)
Traeshon Holden has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for UCLA players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best UCLA Player Prop Best Bets Today

Logan Loya has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.00 Units / 80% ROI)
J. Michael Sturdivant has hit the Receiving Yards Under in 5 of his last 7 games (+2.60 Units / 31% ROI)
TJ Harden has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Ethan Garbers has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Ethan Garbers has hit the TD Passes Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.65 Units / 27% ROI)

Oregon Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Oregon is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).

Oregon is 2-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +2 Units / 10.31% ROI
Oregon is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
Oregon is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI

UCLA Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UCLA is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI).

UCLA is 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -1 Units / -13.61% ROI
UCLA is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI
UCLA is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI

Oregon: Keys to the Game vs. UCLA

Oregon is 9-2 (.818) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-8th-best in FBS; Average: .445

Oregon is 11-2 (.846) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-31st-best in FBS; Average: .685

Oregon is undefeated (10-0) when allowing less than 200 passing yards since the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .719

Oregon is 12-2 (.857) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-12th-best in FBS; Average: .547

UCLA: Keys to the Game vs. Oregon

UCLA is 1-6 (.143) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .490

UCLA is 1-6 (.143) when the opposing team converts 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .470

UCLA is 1-6 (.143) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-9th-worst in FBS; Average: .427

UCLA is 1-5 (.167) when allowing 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– 7th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .466

Matchup Notes for Oregon vs. UCLA

UCLA’s WRs has gained 405 yards on 26 receptions (15.6 YPR) this season — 4th-best among Big Ten WRs. Oregon’s defense has allowed just 9.7 Yards Per Reception this season — T-23rd-best among FBS defenses.

UCLA’s WRs has gained 405 yards on 26 receptions (15.6 YPR) this season — 4th-best among Big Ten WRs. Oregon’s defense has allowed just 9.5 Yards Per Reception to WRs this season — 11th-best among FBS defenses.

UCLA’s WRs has gained 405 yards on 26 receptions (15.6 YPR) this season — 4th-best among Big Ten WRs. Oregon’s defense has allowed 13.2 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — 27th-worst among FBS defenses.

Oregon’s offense has thrown for 929 passing yards in 3 games (309.7 YPG) this season — 16th-best among FBS offenses. UCLA’s defense has allowed 295.3 passing yards per game this season — worst among Big Ten defenses.

Oregon’s QBs has thrown for 929 passing yards in 3 games (309.7 YPG) this season — 16th-best among FBS teams. UCLA’s defense has allowed 295.3 passing yards per game this season — T-7th-worst among FBS defenses.

Oregon’s QBs has thrown for 929 passing yards in 3 games (309.7 YPG) this season — 16th-best among FBS teams. UCLA’s defense has allowed 295.3 passing yards per game this season — worst among Big Ten defenses.

Oregon Offensive Stats & Trends

Oregon Skill Players have averaged 25.7 yards per reception (154 yards/6 catches) on 3rd and long this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.9

Oregon RBs have averaged 17.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (102 yards / 6 touches) on 3rd down this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.9

Oregon Skill Players have averaged 16.1 yards per reception (741 yards/46 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 12.5

Oregon TEs have averaged 8.0 receptions per game (24/3) this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.6

Oregon WRs have averaged 19.8 yards per reception (476 yards/24 catches) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 13.4

UCLA Offensive Stats & Trends

UCLA TEs have averaged 16.8 yards per reception (553 yards/33 catches) since the 2023 season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 11.0

UCLA TEs have averaged 20.0 yards per reception (80 yards/4 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 10.9

UCLA TEs have averaged 23.0 yards per reception (69 yards/3 catches) in close and late situations since the 2023 season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 9.7

Oregon Ducks Defensive Stats & Trends

Oregon tackled opponents for a loss on 12 of 44 rushing attempts (27% TFL%) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 15%.

Oregon has allowed first downs on 26% of rush attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 16%

Oregon has tackled opponents for a loss on 8 of 44 rushing attempts (18% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– T-16th-best in FBS; Average: 11%.

Oregon has tackled opponents for a loss on just 1 of 14 rushing attempts (7% TFL%) in the Red Zone this season– T-22nd-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.

Oregon has allowed first downs on 26% of rush attempts in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 17%

UCLA Bruins Defensive Stats & Trends

UCLA has allowed 9.2 Yards per Attempt (715 yards/78 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 6.0

UCLA has tackled opponents for a loss on 21 of 71 rushing attempts (30% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 16%.

UCLA has allowed 8 rushing TDs on 481 carries (60.1 Carries Per TD) since the 2023 season– 4th-best in FBS; Average: 24.4

UCLA has tackled opponents for a loss on 21 of 71 rushing attempts (30% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 15%.

UCLA has tackled opponents for a loss on 21 of 71 rushing attempts (30% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 15%.