- The Pitt is a -3 point favorite vs. North Carolina
- The Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina Total (Over/Under): 64.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN2
The Pittsburgh Panthers (4-0) visit Kenan Stadium to take on the North Carolina Tar Heels (3-2) on Oct. 5 in Chapel Hill, NC. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.
Pitt is a betting favorite in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).
The Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina Over/Under is 64.5 total points.
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Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Pittsburgh | -3 -105 | 64.5 -110 | -150 |
| North Carolina | +3 -115 | 64.5 -110 | +125 |
Pittsburgh vs North Carolina Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Pittsburgh will win this game with 57.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Pitt and North Carolina, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Pittsburgh vs North Carolina Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts North Carolina will cover the spread with 58.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Pittsburgh Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Pittsburgh has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 away games (+4.05 Units / 72% ROI)
- Pittsburgh has hit the Game Total Over in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.60 Units / 15% ROI)
- Pittsburgh have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.55 Units / 14% ROI)
- Pittsburgh have covered the 1H Spread in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.40 Units / 12% ROI)
- Pittsburgh has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.00 Units / 17% ROI)
North Carolina Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- North Carolina has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+5.70 Units / 46% ROI)
- North Carolina have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+3.10 Units / 60% ROI)
- North Carolina has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.75 Units / 46% ROI)
- North Carolina has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.60 Units / 9% ROI)
- North Carolina has hit the Game Total Over in 3 of their last 6 games at home (+0.80 Units / 12% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Pittsburgh players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pittsburgh Player Prop Bets Today
- Konata Mumpfield has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Rodney Hammond Jr. has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Gavin Bartholomew has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for North Carolina players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best North Carolina Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Omarion Hampton has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 3 games at home (+3.10 Units / 95% ROI)
- Nate McCollum has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Omarion Hampton has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Kobe Paysour has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Pittsburgh Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Pitt is 3-0 against the spread this college football season (+3 Units / 68.18% ROI).
- Pittsburgh is 3-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.1 Units / 5.47% ROI
- Pittsburgh is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 20.69% ROI
- Pittsburgh is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.25 Units / -28.09% ROI
North Carolina Against the Spread (ATS) Record
North Carolina is 1-1 against the spread this college football season (-0.15 Units / -3.37% ROI).
- North Carolina is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 4.13% ROI
- North Carolina is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -27.27% ROI
- North Carolina is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 20.45% ROI
Pittsburgh: Keys to the Game vs. North Carolina
Pittsburgh is 2-6 (.250) when throwing at least 1 interception since the 2023 season– T-37th-worst in FBS; Average: .392
Pittsburgh is 3-7 (.300) when allowing 100 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– 39th-worst in FBS; Average: .424
Pittsburgh is 5-1 (.833) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– T-32nd-best in FBS; Average: .684
Pittsburgh is 2-5 (.286) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-35th-worst in FBS; Average: .451
North Carolina: Keys to the Game vs. Pittsburgh
North Carolina is 3-6 (.333) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-23rd-worst in FBS; Average: .506
North Carolina is 3-6 (.333) when converting less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-12th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .533
North Carolina is 6-1 (.857) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-11th-best in FBS; Average: .535
North Carolina is 10-2 (.833) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-21st-best in FBS; Average: .600
Matchup Notes for Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina
North Carolina’s RBs has rushed for 2,851 yards on 501 carries (5.7 YPC) since the 2023 season — T-17th-best among FBS RBs. Pittsburgh’s defense have allowed just 3.5 YPC since the 2023 season — T-21st-best among FBS defenses.
North Carolina has 388 receptions in 18 games (21.6 per game) since the 2023 season — 32nd-best among FBS skill players. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed just 16.8 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-26th-best among FBS defenses.
North Carolina’s RBs has rushed for 2,851 yards on 501 carries (5.7 YPC) since the 2023 season — T-17th-best among FBS RBs. Pittsburgh’s defense have allowed just 4.2 YPC to RBs since the 2023 season — T-20th-best among FBS defenses.
Pittsburgh’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 11.9% of 505 attempts since the 2023 season — T-34th-best among FBS offenses. North Carolina’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.0% of attempts since the 2023 season — T-2nd-best among ACC defenses.
Pittsburgh’s offense has thrown for 1,321 passing yards in 4 games (330.2 YPG) this season — 7th-best among FBS offenses. North Carolina’s defense has allowed 232.4 passing yards per game this season — 4th-worst among ACC defenses.
Pittsburgh’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 11.9% of 505 attempts since the 2023 season — T-34th-best among FBS offenses. North Carolina’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.0% of attempts since the 2023 season — T-19th-best among FBS defenses.
Pittsburgh Offensive Stats & Trends
Pittsburgh RBs have averaged 12.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (382 yards / 30 touches) on 2nd down this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.5
Pittsburgh’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 11.9% of 505 attempts since the 2023 season — T-34th-best among FBS offenses. North Carolina’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.0% of attempts since the 2023 season — T-2nd-best among ACC defenses.
Pittsburgh’s offense has thrown for 1,321 passing yards in 4 games (330.2 YPG) this season — 7th-best among FBS offenses. North Carolina’s defense has allowed 232.4 passing yards per game this season — 4th-worst among ACC defenses.
Pittsburgh RBs have averaged 9.4 yards from scrimmage per touch (187 yards / 20 touches) in the 4th quarter this season– 5th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.6
Pittsburgh’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 11.9% of 505 attempts since the 2023 season — T-34th-best among FBS offenses. North Carolina’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 12.0% of attempts since the 2023 season — T-19th-best among FBS defenses.
North Carolina Offensive Stats & Trends
North Carolina TEs were targeted 8 times in the 4th quarter last week– most among Power Conference Teams
North Carolina TEs have been targeted 15 times in the 4th quarter this season– most among FBS Teams
North Carolina TEs have been targeted 10.6 times per game (53/5) this season– highest among Power Conference Teams; Average: 5.3
North Carolina’s RBs has rushed for 2,851 yards on 501 carries (5.7 YPC) since the 2023 season — T-17th-best among FBS RBs. Pittsburgh’s defense have allowed just 3.5 YPC since the 2023 season — T-21st-best among FBS defenses.
North Carolina TEs were targeted 8 times in the 4th quarter last week– most among FBS Teams
Pittsburgh Panthers Defensive Stats & Trends
Pittsburgh has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 16 of 75 attempts (21%) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9%
Pittsburgh has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 16 of 75 attempts (21%) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 9%
Pittsburgh allowed passes of 20+ yards on 10 of 47 attempts (21%) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9%
Pittsburgh has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 6 of 28 attempts (21%) on 3rd and long this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 8%
Pittsburgh allowed passes of 20+ yards on 10 of 47 attempts (21%) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: 9%
North Carolina Tar Heels Defensive Stats & Trends
North Carolina has intercepted one of 141 attempts this season– T-4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 32.1
North Carolina has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 7 of 141 attempts (5%) this season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2%
North Carolina has one interception and 8 TD passes allowed this season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 1.3
North Carolina has allowed 15.3 yards per completion (1,162 yards/76 completions) this season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.2
North Carolina has intercepted one of 141 attempts this season– T-7th-worst in FBS; Average: 35.5
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