- The Louisville is a -7 point favorite vs. SMU
- The SMU vs. Louisville Total (Over/Under): 56.5 points
- TV Channel: ESPN
The SMU Mustangs (4-1) visit L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium to take on the Louisville Cardinals (3-1) on Oct. 5 in Louisville, KY. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.
Louisville is a betting favorite in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -7 (-110).
The SMU vs. Louisville Over/Under is 56.5 total points.
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SMU vs. Louisville Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| SMU | +7 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +200 |
| Louisville | -7 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -250 |
SMU vs Louisville Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Louisville will win this game with 69.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both SMU and Louisville, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
SMU vs Louisville Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Louisville will cover the spread with 60.7% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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SMU Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- SMU has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 40% ROI)
- SMU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.95 Units / 63% ROI)
- SMU have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.45 Units / 11% ROI)
- SMU has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 away games (+0.90 Units / 1% ROI)
- SMU have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+0.85 Units / 5% ROI)
Louisville Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Louisville has hit the 1Q Moneyline in their last 6 games at home (+6.25 Units / 32% ROI)
- Louisville has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+6.00 Units / 12% ROI)
- Louisville have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.15 Units / 67% ROI)
- Louisville have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.85 Units / 44% ROI)
- Louisville has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.10 Units / 12% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for SMU players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best SMU Player Prop Bets Today
- Preston Stone has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 87% ROI)
- Preston Stone has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 85% ROI)
- Preston Stone has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 56% ROI)
- Jake Bailey has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 95% ROI)
- RJ Maryland has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Louisville players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Louisville Player Prop Best Bets Today
- no trends found
SMU Against the Spread (ATS) Record
SMU is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.25 Units / -28.09% ROI).
- SMU is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.8 Units / -7.45% ROI
- SMU is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -27.27% ROI
- SMU is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 20.45% ROI
Louisville Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Louisville is 3-0 against the spread this college football season (+3 Units / 67.42% ROI).
- Louisville is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 22.47% ROI
- Louisville is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 20.45% ROI
- Louisville is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -27.27% ROI
SMU: Keys to the Game vs. Louisville
SMU is 12-2 (.857) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– T-26th-best in FBS; Average: .682
SMU is undefeated (15-0) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .762
SMU is 5-1 (.833) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– 6th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .535
SMU is 9-2 (.818) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-11th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .603
Louisville: Keys to the Game vs. SMU
Louisville is 11-3 (.786) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-19th-best in FBS; Average: .545
Louisville is 11-3 (.786) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-23rd-best in FBS; Average: .618
Louisville is 10-2 (.833) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– T-32nd-best in FBS; Average: .682
Louisville is 8-3 (.727) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-17th-best in FBS; Average: .455
Matchup Notes for SMU vs. Louisville
Louisville’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 11.9% of 537 attempts since the 2023 season — T-34th-best among FBS offenses. SMU’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.5% of attempts since the 2023 season — T-24th-worst among FBS defenses.
Louisville’s RBs has rushed for 2,987 yards on 490 carries (6.1 YPC) since the 2023 season — T-6th-best among FBS RBs. SMU’s defense have allowed just 4.0 YPC to RBs since the 2023 season — T-13th-best among FBS defenses.
Louisville’s RBs has averaged 4.9 targets per game since the 2023 season — T-32nd-highest among FBS RBs. SMU’s defense has allowed 3.8 receptions per game to RBs since the 2023 season — T-15th-worst among FBS defenses.
SMU’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.0% of 136 attempts this season — 22nd-best among FBS offenses. Louisville’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 6.5% of attempts this season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.
SMU’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.9% of 599 attempts since the 2023 season — T-9th-best among FBS offenses. Louisville’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.5% of attempts since the 2023 season — 5th-best among ACC defenses.
SMU’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.0% of 136 attempts this season — 22nd-best among FBS offenses. Louisville’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 6.5% of attempts this season — 5th-worst among ACC defenses.
SMU Offensive Stats & Trends
SMU’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.0% of 136 attempts this season — 22nd-best among FBS offenses. Louisville’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 6.5% of attempts this season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.
SMU’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.9% of 599 attempts since the 2023 season — T-9th-best among FBS offenses. Louisville’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.5% of attempts since the 2023 season — 5th-best among ACC defenses.
SMU’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.0% of 136 attempts this season — 22nd-best among FBS offenses. Louisville’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 6.5% of attempts this season — 5th-worst among ACC defenses.
SMU’s WRs has gained 3,577 yards on 241 receptions (14.8 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-18th-best among FBS WRs. Louisville’s defense has allowed 14.0 Yards Per Reception to WRs since the 2023 season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.
SMU WRs had 117 receiving yards on 3rd down last week– most among FBS Teams
Louisville Offensive Stats & Trends
Louisville’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 11.9% of 537 attempts since the 2023 season — T-34th-best among FBS offenses. SMU’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.5% of attempts since the 2023 season — T-24th-worst among FBS defenses.
Louisville’s RBs has rushed for 2,987 yards on 490 carries (6.1 YPC) since the 2023 season — T-6th-best among FBS RBs. SMU’s defense have allowed just 4.0 YPC to RBs since the 2023 season — T-13th-best among FBS defenses.
Louisville’s RBs has averaged 4.9 targets per game since the 2023 season — T-32nd-highest among FBS RBs. SMU’s defense has allowed 3.8 receptions per game to RBs since the 2023 season — T-15th-worst among FBS defenses.
Louisville’s RBs has rushed for 2,987 yards on 490 carries (6.1 YPC) since the 2023 season — T-6th-best among FBS RBs. SMU’s defense have allowed just 3.3 YPC since the 2023 season — T-14th-best among FBS defenses.
Louisville Skill Players were targeted 16 times in close and late situations last week– most among Power Conference Teams
SMU Mustangs Defensive Stats & Trends
SMU has allowed 8 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– T-2nd-most in FBS
SMU allowed a Completion Pct of just 35% (12 completions/34 attempts) last week– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%
SMU has allowed 7 first down receptions in the Red Zone this season– T-most among Power Conference Teams
SMU has forced 10 fumbles this season– most among Power Conference Teams
SMU allowed a Completion Pct of just 35% (12 completions/34 attempts) last week– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 61%
Louisville Cardinals Defensive Stats & Trends
Louisville has allowed a Completion Pct of just 25% (3 completions/12 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– best in FBS; Average: 54%
Louisville has allowed a Completion Pct of just 25% (3 completions/12 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 54%
Louisville has allowed opponents to catch just 3 of 12 passes (25% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long this season– best in FBS; Average: 56%
Louisville has allowed 58.5 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 137.1
Louisville has tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 39 rushing attempts (18% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– T-17th-best in FBS; Average: 11%.
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