SMU vs Louisville Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 6

BetMGM Betting Oct 04, 2024, 11:50 AM

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FILE - Louisville head coach Jeff Brohm shouts instructions to his team during the first half of an NCAA college football game in Louisville, Ky., Saturday, Sept. 23, 2023. Louisville enters without Jack Plummer, who led Jeff Brohm's first-year program to its first ACC title game berth. (AP Photo/Timothy D. Easley, FIle)

(AP Photo/Timothy D. Easley)

The Louisville is a -7 point favorite vs. SMU
The SMU vs. Louisville Total (Over/Under): 56.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN

The SMU Mustangs (4-1) visit L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium to take on the Louisville Cardinals (3-1) on Oct. 5 in Louisville, KY. Kickoff is scheduled for 12:00pm EDT.

Louisville is a betting favorite in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -7 (-110).

The SMU vs. Louisville Over/Under is 56.5 total points.

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SMU vs. Louisville Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
SMU	+7 -110	56.5 -110	+200
Louisville	-7 -110	56.5 -110	-250

SMU vs Louisville Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Louisville will win this game with 69.3% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both SMU and Louisville, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

SMU vs Louisville Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Louisville will cover the spread with 60.7% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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SMU Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

SMU has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.45 Units / 40% ROI)
SMU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 6 of their last 7 away games (+4.95 Units / 63% ROI)
SMU have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.45 Units / 11% ROI)
SMU has hit the Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 away games (+0.90 Units / 1% ROI)
SMU have covered the 1Q Spread in 7 of their last 12 games (+0.85 Units / 5% ROI)

Louisville Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Louisville has hit the 1Q Moneyline in their last 6 games at home (+6.25 Units / 32% ROI)
Louisville has hit the 1H Moneyline in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+6.00 Units / 12% ROI)
Louisville have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 7 games at home (+5.15 Units / 67% ROI)
Louisville have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 8 games at home (+3.85 Units / 44% ROI)
Louisville has hit the Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.10 Units / 12% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for SMU players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best SMU Player Prop Bets Today

Preston Stone has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Preston Stone has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Preston Stone has hit the TD Passes Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 56% ROI)
Jake Bailey has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 95% ROI)
RJ Maryland has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Louisville players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Louisville Player Prop Best Bets Today

no trends found

SMU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

SMU is 1-2 against the spread this college football season (-1.25 Units / -28.09% ROI).

SMU is 2-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.8 Units / -7.45% ROI
SMU is 1-2 when betting the Over for -1.2 Units / -27.27% ROI
SMU is 2-1 when betting the Under for +0.9 Units / 20.45% ROI

Louisville Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Louisville is 3-0 against the spread this college football season (+3 Units / 67.42% ROI).

Louisville is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1 Units / 22.47% ROI
Louisville is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 20.45% ROI
Louisville is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -27.27% ROI

SMU: Keys to the Game vs. Louisville

SMU is 12-2 (.857) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– T-26th-best in FBS; Average: .682

SMU is undefeated (15-0) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .762

SMU is 5-1 (.833) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– 6th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .535

SMU is 9-2 (.818) when committing less than 60 yards in penalties since the 2023 season– T-11th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .603

Louisville: Keys to the Game vs. SMU

Louisville is 11-3 (.786) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-19th-best in FBS; Average: .545

Louisville is 11-3 (.786) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-23rd-best in FBS; Average: .618

Louisville is 10-2 (.833) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– T-32nd-best in FBS; Average: .682

Louisville is 8-3 (.727) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-17th-best in FBS; Average: .455

Matchup Notes for SMU vs. Louisville

Louisville’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 11.9% of 537 attempts since the 2023 season — T-34th-best among FBS offenses. SMU’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 8.5% of attempts since the 2023 season — T-24th-worst among FBS defenses.

Louisville’s RBs has rushed for 2,987 yards on 490 carries (6.1 YPC) since the 2023 season — T-6th-best among FBS RBs. SMU’s defense have allowed just 4.0 YPC to RBs since the 2023 season — T-13th-best among FBS defenses.

Louisville’s RBs has averaged 4.9 targets per game since the 2023 season — T-32nd-highest among FBS RBs. SMU’s defense has allowed 3.8 receptions per game to RBs since the 2023 season — T-15th-worst among FBS defenses.

SMU’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 14.0% of 136 attempts this season — 22nd-best among FBS offenses. Louisville’s defense allowed 20+ yards on just 6.5% of attempts this season — T-27th-worst among FBS defenses.

SMU’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.9% of 599 attempts since the 2023 season — T-9th-best among FBS offenses. Louisville’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.5% of attempts since the 2023 season — 5th-best among ACC defenses.

SMU Offensive Stats & Trends

SMU’s WRs has gained 3,577 yards on 241 receptions (14.8 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-18th-best among FBS WRs. Louisville’s defense has allowed 14.0 Yards Per Reception to WRs since the 2023 season — T-25th-worst among FBS defenses.

SMU WRs had 117 receiving yards on 3rd down last week– most among FBS Teams

Louisville Offensive Stats & Trends

Louisville’s RBs has rushed for 2,987 yards on 490 carries (6.1 YPC) since the 2023 season — T-6th-best among FBS RBs. SMU’s defense have allowed just 3.3 YPC since the 2023 season — T-14th-best among FBS defenses.

Louisville Skill Players were targeted 16 times in close and late situations last week– most among Power Conference Teams

SMU Mustangs Defensive Stats & Trends

SMU has allowed 8 TD passes in the Red Zone this season– T-2nd-most in FBS

SMU allowed a Completion Pct of just 35% (12 completions/34 attempts) last week– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 61%

SMU has allowed 7 first down receptions in the Red Zone this season– T-most among Power Conference Teams

SMU has forced 10 fumbles this season– most among Power Conference Teams

SMU allowed a Completion Pct of just 35% (12 completions/34 attempts) last week– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 61%

Louisville Cardinals Defensive Stats & Trends

Louisville has allowed a Completion Pct of just 25% (3 completions/12 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– best in FBS; Average: 54%

Louisville has allowed a Completion Pct of just 25% (3 completions/12 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 54%

Louisville has allowed opponents to catch just 3 of 12 passes (25% Reception Pct) on 3rd and long this season– best in FBS; Average: 56%

Louisville has allowed 58.5 yards from scrimmage per game to RBs this season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 137.1

Louisville has tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 39 rushing attempts (18% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– T-17th-best in FBS; Average: 11%.