TCU vs Baylor Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 10

BetMGM Betting Nov 01, 2024, 3:23 PM

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Baylor head coach Dave Aranda yells from the sideline during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Albany in Waco, Texas, Saturday, Sept. 3, 2022. (AP Photo/LM Otero)

(AP Photo/LM Otero)

Baylor is a -3 point favorite vs. TCU
TCU vs. Baylor Total (Over/Under): 64.5 points
TV Channel: ESPN2

The TCU Horned Frogs (5-3) visit McLane Stadium to take on the Baylor Bears (4-4) on Nov. 2 in Waco, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EDT.

Baylor is a betting favorite in Week 10, with the spread sitting at -3 (-115).

The TCU vs. Baylor Over/Under is 64.5 total points.

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TCU vs. Baylor Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
TCU	+3 -105	64.5 -110	+135
Baylor	-3 -115	64.5 -110	-165

TCU vs Baylor Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Baylor will win this game with 59.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both TCU and Baylor, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

TCU vs Baylor Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Baylor will cover the spread with 53.2% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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TCU Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

TCU has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games (+5.65 Units / 48% ROI)
TCU has hit the Game Total Over in 5 of their last 6 away games (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
TCU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.60 Units / 12% ROI)
TCU have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.20 Units / 10% ROI)
TCU has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 6 away games (+0.20 Units / 2% ROI)

Baylor Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Baylor has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 48% ROI)
Baylor have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 6 games at home (+1.80 Units / 27% ROI)
Baylor has hit the Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)
Baylor has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for TCU players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best TCU Player Prop Bets Today

Josh Hoover has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 82% ROI)
Jack Bech has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Josh Hoover has hit the TD Passes Over in his last game (+1.20 Units / 120% ROI)
Cam Cook has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.05 Units / 105% ROI)
JP Richardson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Baylor players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Baylor Player Prop Best Bets Today

Josh Cameron has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 85% ROI)
Monaray Baldwin has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Hal Presley has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

TCU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

TCU is 2-6 against the spread this college football season (-4.65 Units / -52.84% ROI).

TCU is 4-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -6.2 Units / -35.13% ROI
TCU is 5-3 when betting the Over for +1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI
TCU is 3-5 when betting the Under for -2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI

Baylor Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Baylor is 5-3 against the spread this college football season (+1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI).

Baylor is 3-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.8 Units / -4.85% ROI
Baylor is 5-3 when betting the Over for +1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI
Baylor is 3-5 when betting the Under for -2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI

TCU: Keys to the Game vs. Baylor

TCU is 3-6 (.333) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2023 season– T-11th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .510

TCU is 5-1 (.833) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-29th-best in FBS; Average: .596

TCU is 3-8 (.273) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– T-7th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .531

TCU is 3-6 (.333) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2023 season– T-32nd-worst in FBS; Average: .474

Baylor: Keys to the Game vs. TCU

Baylor is 1-7 (.125) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: .505

Baylor is 1-7 (.125) when in a one score game since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .531

Baylor is winless (0-8) when intercepting no passes since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .399

Baylor is 3-10 (.231) when allowing 200 or more passing yards since the 2023 season– 4th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .510

Matchup Notes for TCU vs. Baylor

Baylor has gained 1,867 yards on 140 receptions (13.3 YPR) this season — T-25th-best among FBS skill players. TCU’s defense has allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Baylor has gained 1,867 yards on 140 receptions (13.3 YPR) this season — 4th-best among Big 12 skill players. TCU’s defense has allowed just 11.0 Yards Per Reception this season — 5th-best among Big 12 defenses.

Baylor’s offense has averaged 2.5 passing TDs per game this season — T-10th-best among FBS offenses. TCU’s defense has allowed just 1.4 passing TDs per game this season — T-4th-best among Big 12 defenses.

TCU’s TEs has gained 209 yards on 25 receptions (just 8.4 YPR) this season — 3rd-worst among Big 12 TEs. Baylor’s defense has allowed just 9.3 Yards Per Reception to TEs this season — T-29th-best among FBS defenses.

TCU’s TEs has 25 receptions in 7 games (3.6 per game) this season — T-5th-best among Big 12 TEs. Baylor’s defense has allowed just 1.6 receptions per game to TEs this season — 4th-best among FBS defenses.

TCU’s WRs has 18 receiving touchdowns this season — most among Big 12 WRs. Baylor’s defense has allowed 14 receiving touchdowns this season — T-3rd-most among Big 12 defenses.

TCU Offensive Stats & Trends

TCU WRs have 1,155 receiving yards on 1st down this season– most among Big 12 Teams

TCU Skill Players have 1,305 receiving yards on 1st down this season– most among Big 12 Teams

TCU WRs had 151 receiving yards in close and late situations last week– most among FBS Teams

Baylor Offensive Stats & Trends

Baylor Skill Players averaged 20.2 yards per reception (222 yards/11 catches) last week– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 12.9

Baylor RBs averaged 9.4 Yards per Carry (272 yards/29 carries) last week– 4th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.1

Baylor WRs averaged a touchdown every 26.6 receptions (133 Rec/5 TDs) in the 2023 season– worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.7

TCU Horned Frogs Defensive Stats & Trends

TCU has allowed a Completion Pct of 100% (4 completions/4 attempts) on 3rd and short this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%

TCU has tackled opponents for a loss on just 38 of 321 rushing attempts (12% TFL%) this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 15%.

TCU has allowed a Completion Pct of 100% (4 completions/4 attempts) on 3rd and short this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 49%

TCU has tackled opponents for a loss on just 14 of 126 rushing attempts (11% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-22nd-worst in FBS; Average: 15%.

TCU has tackled opponents for a loss on just 14 of 126 rushing attempts (11% TFL%) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst in the Big 12; Average: 15%.

Baylor Bears Defensive Stats & Trends

Baylor did not record a sack (36 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.2

Baylor did not record a sack (36 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– T-worst in FBS; Average: 15.1

Baylor has allowed a Completion Pct of just 20% (1 completions/5 attempts) on 3rd and short this season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%

Baylor did not record a sack (36 pass attempts) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 14.9

Baylor has allowed first downs on 54% of pass attempts in close and late situations this season– worst in the Big 12; Average: 32%

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