TCU vs SMU Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 4

BetMGM Betting Sep 20, 2024, 1:41 PM

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SMU quarterback Preston Stone (2) during the first half of an NCAA college football game against SMU, Saturday, Sept. 9, 2023, in Norman, Okla. (AP Photo/Alonzo Adams)

(AP Photo/Alonzo Adams)

TCU is a -3 point favorite vs. SMU
TCU vs. SMU Total(Over/Under): 58.5 points
TV Channel: CW

The TCU Horned Frogs (2-1) visit Gerald J. Ford Stadium to take on the SMU Mustangs (2-1) on Sep. 21 in Dallas, TX. Kickoff is scheduled for 5:00pm EDT.

TCU is a betting favorite in Week 4, with the spread sitting at -3 (-105).

The TCU vs. SMU Over/Under is 58.5 total points.

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TCU vs. SMU Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
TCU	-3 -105	58.5 -110	-160
SMU	+3 -115	58.5 -110	+130

TCU vs SMU Prediction:

The winning team model predicts SMU will win this game with 57.0% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both TCU and SMU, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

TCU vs SMU Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts SMU will cover the spread with 59.3% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.

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TCU Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

TCU has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.65 Units / 37% ROI)

TCU has hit the Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.50 Units / 11% ROI)

TCU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+1.00 Units / 20% ROI)

TCU have covered the 1Q Spread in 6 of their last 11 games (+0.50 Units / 4% ROI)

SMU Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

SMU has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 13 games (+6.75 Units / 47% ROI)

SMU has hit the 1H Moneyline in their last 5 games at home (+5.00 Units / 13% ROI)

SMU has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.45 Units / 30% ROI)

SMU have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.75 Units / 43% ROI)

SMU has hit the Game Total Under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 Units / 17% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for TCU players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best TCU Player Prop Bets Today

Josh Hoover has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 82% ROI)

Josh Hoover has hit the TD Passes Over in his last 3 games (+3.10 Units / 67% ROI)

Savion Williams has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.05 Units / 105% ROI)

JP Richardson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Drake Dabney has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 74% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for SMU players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best SMU Player Prop Best Bets Today

Preston Stone has hit the Passing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Preston Stone has hit the TD Passes Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+2.40 Units / 43% ROI)

Preston Stone has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 85% ROI)

Jaylan Knighton has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Jake Bailey has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 95% ROI)

TCU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

TCU is 0-3 against the spread this college football season (-3.3 Units / -100% ROI).

TCU is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.4 Units / -9.09% ROI
TCU is 2-1 when betting the Over for +0.9 Units / 27.27% ROI
TCU is 1-2 when betting the Under for -1.2 Units / -36.36% ROI

SMU Against the Spread (ATS) Record

SMU is 0-2 against the spread this college football season (-2.25 Units / -100% ROI).

SMU is 1-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.8 Units / -11.09% ROI
SMU is 0-2 when betting the Over for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
SMU is 2-0 when betting the Under for +2 Units / 90.91% ROI

TCU: Keys to the Game vs. SMU

TCU is 2-7 (.222) when allowing 120 or more rushing yards since the 2023 season– T-38th-worst in FBS; Average: .355

TCU is 13-6 (.684) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2022 season– T-30th-best in FBS; Average: .497

TCU is 16-7 (.640) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2022 season– T-31st-best in FBS; Average: .535

TCU is 9-3 (.750) when allowing less than 5 explosive passes since the 2022 season– T-29th-best in FBS; Average: .570

SMU: Keys to the Game vs. TCU

SMU is winless (0-4) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .408

SMU is winless (0-4) when allowing 10 or more rushes of four or more yards since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .453

SMU is winless (0-4) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .417

SMU is winless (0-3) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2022 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .445

Matchup Notes for TCU vs. SMU

SMU has gained 4,533 yards on 324 receptions (14.0 YPR) since the 2023 season — 11th-best among FBS skill players. TCU’s defense has allowed 12.6 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — 5th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

SMU’s TEs has gained 876 yards on 58 receptions (15.1 YPR) since the 2023 season — best among ACC TEs. TCU’s defense has allowed 12.6 Yards Per Reception since the 2023 season — 5th-worst among Big 12 defenses.

SMU’s offense has thrown for 20 or more yards on 13.8% of 94 attempts this season — T-31st-best among FBS offenses. TCU’s defense allowed 20+ yards on 11.2% of attempts this season — 34th-best among FBS defenses.

TCU’s QBs has thrown for 4,784 passing yards in 15 games (318.9 YPG) since the 2023 season — 5th-best among FBS teams. SMU’s defense has allowed just 177.4 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among ACC defenses.

TCU’s QBs has thrown for 1,038 passing yards in 3 games (346.0 YPG) this season — 5th-best among FBS teams. SMU’s defense has allowed just 154.7 passing yards per game this season — 35th-best among FBS defenses.

TCU Offensive Stats & Trends

TCU WRs have caught 6 touchdown passes in the Red Zone this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

TCU WRs have 10 receptions in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams

SMU Offensive Stats & Trends

SMU QBs have 40 completions for 20 or more yards on 3rd down since the 2022 season– most among FBS Teams

SMU TEs have averaged 19.3 yards per reception (116 yards/6 catches) with 4-6 yards to go since the 2022 season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 10.3

TCU Horned Frogs Defensive Stats & Trends

TCU has allowed a Completion Pct of just 39% (14 completions/36 attempts) in the 1st half this season– best in FBS; Average: 61%

TCU has forced 13 fumbles on 1,060 carries (81.5 Carries Per Fumble) since the 2022 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 41.2

TCU has allowed a Completion Pct of just 39% (14 completions/36 attempts) in the 1st half this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%

TCU has forced 13 fumbles on 1,060 carries (81.5 Carries Per Fumble) since the 2022 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 40.8

TCU has tackled opponents for a loss on just 79 of 591 rushing attempts (13% TFL%) since the 2023 season– 27th-worst in FBS; Average: 16%.

SMU Mustangs Defensive Stats & Trends

SMU has allowed first downs on 31% of rush attempts on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– best in FBS; Average: 60%

SMU has no interceptions and 11 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9.5

SMU has allowed a Completion Pct of just 25% (4 completions/16 attempts) when opponents had over 10 yards to go this season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 58%

SMU has tackled opponents for a loss on 7 of 30 rushing attempts (23% TFL%) on 3rd and short since the 2022 season– 3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 11%.

SMU has no interceptions (39 pass attempts) in the Red Zone since the 2022 season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 38.0

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