- The Texas State is a -13.5 point favorite vs. Troy
- The Texas State vs. Troy Total(Over/Under): 57 points
- TV Channel: ESPNU
The Texas State Bobcats (2-2) visit Larry Blakeney Field at Veterans Memorial Stadium to take on the Troy Trojans (1-4) on Oct. 3 in Troy, AL. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT.
Texas State is a betting favorite in Week 6, with the spread sitting at -13.5 (-110).
The Texas State vs. Troy Over/Under is 57 total points.
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Texas State vs. Troy Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Texas State | -13.5 -110 | 57 -110 | -550 |
| Troy | +13.5 -110 | 57 -110 | +380 |
Texas State vs Troy Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Texas State will win this game with 85.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Texas State and Troy, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Texas State vs Troy Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Troy will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Texas State Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Texas State has hit the 1Q Game Total Over in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.85 Units / 56% ROI)
- Texas State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.40 Units / 34% ROI)
- Texas State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.60 Units / 34% ROI)
- Texas State have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.95 Units / 50% ROI)
- Texas State has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 away games (+2.65 Units / 35% ROI)
Troy Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Troy has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in their last 12 games (+12.00 Units / 82% ROI)
- Troy has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+10.85 Units / 27% ROI)
- Troy has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 10 of their last 12 games (+7.85 Units / 59% ROI)
- Troy have covered the Spread in 9 of their last 13 games (+4.55 Units / 32% ROI)
- Troy have covered the 1H Spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 51% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Troy players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Troy Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Chris Lewis has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 87% ROI)
Texas State Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Texas State is 1-3 against the spread this college football season (-2.3 Units / -52.27% ROI).
- Texas State is 1-2 when betting on the Moneyline for -3.55 Units / -60.68% ROI
- Texas State is 4-0 when betting the Over for +4 Units / 90.91% ROI
- Texas State is 0-4 when betting the Under for -4.4 Units / -100% ROI
Troy Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Troy is 2-2 against the spread this college football season (-0.25 Units / -4.5% ROI).
- Troy is 1-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.1 Units / -16.7% ROI
- Troy is 2-2 when betting the Over for -0.2 Units / -3.64% ROI
- Troy is 2-2 when betting the Under for -0.2 Units / -3.64% ROI
Texas State: Keys to the Game vs. Troy
Texas State is 8-1 (.889) when intercepting at least 1 pass since the 2023 season– T-22nd-best in FBS; Average: .682
Texas State is 8-3 (.727) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– T-35th-best in FBS; Average: .618
Texas State is 8-3 (.727) when allowing less than 50% of third down conversion opportunities since the 2023 season– 13th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .555
Texas State is 8-6 (.571) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-38th-best in FBS; Average: .455
Troy: Keys to the Game vs. Texas State
Troy is 10-3 (.769) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-33rd-best in FBS; Average: .630
Troy is 7-6 (.538) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2023 season– T-14th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .396
Troy is 9-4 (.692) when allowing less than 3 sacks since the 2023 season– T-11th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .572
Troy is 12-4 (.750) when making 7 or more explosive plays since the 2023 season– T-36th-best in FBS; Average: .650
Matchup Notes for Texas State vs. Troy
Troy’s RBs has 39 receptions in 19 games (just 2.1 per game) since the 2023 season — T-15th-worst among FBS RBs. Texas State’s defense has allowed 20.0 receptions per game since the 2023 season — T-30th-worst among FBS defenses.
Troy’s RBs have just 16.1 receiving yards per game since the 2023 season — T-25th-worst among FBS RBs. Texas State’s defense has allowed just 17.1 receiving yards per game to RBs since the 2023 season — 20th-best among FBS defenses.
Texas State’s offense has thrown for 4,599 passing yards in 17 games (270.5 YPG) since the 2023 season — 26th-best among FBS offenses. Troy’s defense has allowed just 198.3 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 30th-best among FBS defenses.
Texas State’s QBs has thrown for 4,565 passing yards in 17 games (268.5 YPG) since the 2023 season — 26th-best among FBS teams. Troy’s defense has allowed just 198.3 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 30th-best among FBS defenses.
Texas State have 270.4 receiving yards per game since the 2023 season — 26th-best among FBS skill players. Troy’s defense has allowed just 198.3 receiving yards per game since the 2023 season — 29th-best among FBS defenses.
Texas State Offensive Stats & Trends
Texas State’s offense has thrown for 4,599 passing yards in 17 games (270.5 YPG) since the 2023 season — 26th-best among FBS offenses. Troy’s defense has allowed just 198.3 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 30th-best among FBS defenses.
Texas State WRs had 6 receptions in the Red Zone last week– most among FBS Teams
Texas State’s QBs has thrown for 4,565 passing yards in 17 games (268.5 YPG) since the 2023 season — 26th-best among FBS teams. Troy’s defense has allowed just 198.3 passing yards per game since the 2023 season — 30th-best among FBS defenses.
Texas State QBs have rushed for 6 TDs in the 4th quarter since the 2023 season– T-4th-most among FBS Teams
Texas State WRs were targeted 9 times in the Red Zone last week– most among FBS Teams
Troy Offensive Stats & Trends
Troy Skill Players have averaged 22.9 yards per reception (206 yards/9 catches) on 3rd and long this season– 4th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.8
Troy Skill Players have caught 11 touchdown passes in close and late situations since the 2023 season– 2nd-most among FBS Teams
Troy RBs have averaged 8.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (320 yards / 40 touches) on 3rd and short since the 2023 season– 5th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 4.6
Troy WRs have averaged 19.9 yards per target (199 yards/10 targets) on 3rd and long this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 7.9
Troy Skill Players have averaged just 15.4 receptions per game (77/5) this season– T-29th-worst among FBS Teams; Average: 18.9
Texas State Bobcats Defensive Stats & Trends
Texas State allowed 5 rushing TDs in the Red Zone last week– most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Texas State has allowed a Completion Pct of just 36% (8 completions/22 attempts) on 3rd and long this season– 3rd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 55%
Texas State has averaged 3.1 sacks per game since the 2023 season– T-2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.0
Texas State allowed 5 rushing TDs in the Red Zone last week– most in FBS
Texas State allowed 5 TDs in the Red Zone last week– 2nd-most among Non-Power Conference Teams
Troy Trojans Defensive Stats & Trends
Troy opponents has averaged 32.9 Passing Attempts per TD (560 Pass Attempts/17 Passing TDs) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 19.1
Troy has allowed 2.7 yards from scrimmage per touch (403 yards / 147 touches) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.8
Troy has allowed 17 touchdowns on 361 completions (21.2 Completions Per TD) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 11.7
Troy allowed 22.5 yards per completion (135 yards/6 completions) last week– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: 12.4
Troy has allowed a Completion Pct of 71% (89 completions/125 attempts) this season– 4th-worst in FBS; Average: 60%
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