UNLV vs Kansas Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 3

BetMGM Betting Sep 12, 2024, 11:23 AM

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Kansas player number 6 about to throw a NFL game ball.

(AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis)

Kansas is a -7 point favorite vs. UNLV
UNLV vs. Kansas Total(Over/Under): 58 points
TV Channel: ESPN

The UNLV Rebels (2-0) visit Children’s Mercy Park to take on the Kansas Jayhawks (1-1) on Sep. 13 in Kansas City, KS. Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00pm EDT.

Kansas is a betting favorite in Week 3, with the spread sitting at -7 (-105).

The UNLV vs. Kansas Over/Under is 58 total points.

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UNLV vs. Kansas Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

	Spread	Total (O/U)	Moneyline
UNLV	+7 -115	58 -110	+220
Kansas	-7 -105	58 -110	-275

UNLV vs Kansas Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Kansas will win this game with 67.9% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

UNLV vs Kansas Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Kansas will cover the spread with 55.9% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both UNLV and Kansas and key player performances this season.

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UNLV Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

UNLV has hit the Game Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+6.70 Units / 44% ROI)

UNLV has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 13 games (+6.30 Units / 25% ROI)

UNLV have covered the 1Q Spread in their last 6 away games (+6.20 Units / 88% ROI)

UNLV have covered the Spread in their last 6 away games (+6.00 Units / 90% ROI)

UNLV has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 10 of their last 14 games (+5.75 Units / 38% ROI)

Kansas Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals

Kansas has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 8 of their last 12 games (+4.55 Units / 34% ROI)

Kansas have covered the Spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 53% ROI)

Kansas have covered the 1Q Spread in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+2.90 Units / 45% ROI)

Kansas has hit the Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+1.85 Units / 23% ROI)

Kansas has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 3 of their last 5 games at home (+1.65 Units / 24% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for UNLV players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best UNLV Player Prop Bets Today

Jacob De Jesus has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.05 Units / 95% ROI)

Jai’Den Thomas has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Ricky White has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Kansas players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Kansas Player Prop Best Bets Today

Devin Neal has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 85% ROI)

Lawrence Arnold has hit the Receiving Yards Over in 5 of his last 6 games (+3.90 Units / 55% ROI)

Luke Grimm has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 85% ROI)

Quentin Skinner has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Daniel Hishaw Jr. has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 78% ROI)

UNLV Against the Spread (ATS) Record

UNLV is 2-0 against the spread this college football season (+2 Units / 88.89% ROI).

UNLV is 1-0 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.5 Units / 150% ROI
UNLV is 1-1 when betting the Over for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI
UNLV is 1-1 when betting the Under for -0.1 Units / -4.55% ROI

Kansas Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Kansas is 0-1 against the spread this college football season (-1.1 Units / -100% ROI).

Kansas is 0-1 when betting on the Moneyline for -2.2 Units / -100% ROI
Kansas is 0-1 when betting the Over for -1.1 Units / -100% ROI
Kansas is 1-0 when betting the Under for +1 Units / 90.91% ROI

UNLV: Keys to the Game vs. Kansas

UNLV is 6-3 (.667) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-30th-best in FBS; Average: .497

UNLV is winless (0-6) when scoring less than 22 points since the 2022 season– T-worst among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .143

UNLV is 4-1 (.800) when allowing less than 200 passing yards since the 2022 season– T-22nd-best in FBS; Average: .567

UNLV is 9-7 (.562) when the opposing team rushes more than 30 times since the 2022 season– T-15th-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: .416

Kansas: Keys to the Game vs. UNLV

Kansas is 5-1 (.714) when not throwing an interception since the 2023 season– T-37th-best in FBS; Average: .585

Kansas is 8-2 (.667) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-26th-best in FBS; Average: .494

Kansas is 9-3 (.643) when not throwing an interception since the 2022 season– 13th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .494

Kansas is 7-2 (.778) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-18th-best in FBS; Average: .496

Matchup Notes for UNLV vs. Kansas

Kansas’s RBs has rushed for 419 yards on 57 carries (7.4 YPC) this season — T-13th-best among FBS RBs. UNLV’s defense have allowed just 2.4 YPC this season — T-20th-best among FBS defenses.

Kansas’s RBs has rushed for 419 yards on 57 carries (7.4 YPC) this season — T-13th-best among FBS RBs. UNLV’s defense have allowed just 3.2 YPC to RBs this season — T-27th-best among FBS defenses.

Devin Neal (KAN) has rushed for 213 yards on 22 carries (9.7 YPC) this season — best of Qualified Big 12 Running Backs. UNLV’s defense have allowed just 2.4 YPC this season — T-20th-best among FBS defenses.

UNLV’s offense has averaged 2.5 passing TDs per game this season — T-26th-best among FBS offenses. Kansas’s defense has allowed just 0.0 passing TDs per game this season — T-best among Big 12 defenses.

UNLV has gained 304 yards on 16 receptions (19.0 YPR) this season — T-5th-best among FBS skill players. Kansas’s defense has allowed just 9.4 Yards Per Reception this season — 4th-best among Big 12 defenses.

UNLV has 2.5 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-26th-best among FBS skill players. Kansas’s defense has allowed just 0.0 receiving touchdowns per game this season — T-best among Big 12 defenses.

UNLV Offensive Stats & Trends

UNLV Skill Players have averaged 19.0 yards per reception (304 yards/16 catches) this season– T-5th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.2

UNLV QBs have rushed for 224 yards this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams

UNLV WRs averaged a touchdown every 5.0 receptions (10 Rec/2 TDs) in the Red Zone in the 2023 season– 4th-worst Receptions Per TD among FBS Teams; Average: 1.9

Kansas Offensive Stats & Trends

Kansas TEs have averaged 18.4 yards per reception (313 yards/17 catches) on 1st down since the 2023 season– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 11.7

Kansas WRs have averaged 19.2 yards per reception (1,149 yards/60 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2022 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.4

Kansas Skill Players have averaged 16.4 yards per reception (1,441 yards/88 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2022 season– best among Big 12 Teams; Average: 12.3

Kansas Skill Players have averaged 16.4 yards per reception (1,441 yards/88 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2022 season– 4th-best among FBS Teams; Average: 12.1

Kansas Skill Players have averaged 16.4 yards per reception (1,441 yards/88 catches) in the 4th quarter since the 2022 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 12.1

UNLV Rebels Defensive Stats & Trends

UNLV has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 75 of 470 attempts (16%) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best in FBS; Average: 10%

UNLV has not allowed any rushing touchdowns on 49 rushes this season– T-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 21.4

UNLV has allowed passes of 40+ yards on 23 of 470 attempts (5%) since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst in FBS; Average: 2%

UNLV has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 75 of 470 attempts (16%) since the 2023 season– 2nd-best among Non-Power Conference Teams; Average: 10%

UNLV defense has allowed 75 completions for 20 or more yards since the 2023 season– most among Non-Power Conference Teams

Kansas Jayhawks Defensive Stats & Trends

Kansas’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 25% of PATs since the 2023 season– highest among Power Conference Teams; Average: 8%

Kansas’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 25% of PATs since the 2023 season– highest in FBS; Average: 7%

Kansas’s opponents has attempted two-point conversions on 25% of PATs since the 2023 season– highest in the Big 12; Average: 9%

Kansas has allowed a Completion Pct of 69% (47 completions/68 attempts) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– 3rd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 53%

Kansas has no interceptions and 12 TD passes allowed in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– T-worst in the Big 12; Average: 10.2