- Pitt is a -7.5 point favorite vs. Virginia
- Virginia vs. Pittsburgh Total (Over/Under): 57.5 points
- TV Channel: ACCN
The Virginia Cavaliers (4-4) visit Acrisure Stadium to take on the Pittsburgh Panthers (7-1) on Nov. 9 in Pittsburgh, PA. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST.
Pitt is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -7.5 (-110).
The Virginia vs. Pittsburgh Over/Under is 57.5 total points.
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Virginia vs. Pittsburgh Odds, Spread, Over/Under:
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Virginia | +7.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | +240 |
| Pittsburgh | -7.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -300 |
Virginia vs Pittsburgh Prediction:
The winning team model predicts Pittsburgh will win this game with 69.2% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.
This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Virginia and Pitt, key player performances this season and recent team trends.
Virginia vs Pittsburgh Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Pittsburgh will cover the spread with 60.0% confidence.
This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.
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Virginia Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Virginia has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 9 games (+4.70 Units / 45% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 8 of their last 11 games (+4.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- Virginia has hit the Game Total Over in their last 4 away games (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI)
- Virginia have covered the Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.70 Units / 31% ROI)
- Virginia have covered the 1Q Spread in 5 of their last 9 games (+0.60 Units / 6% ROI)
Pittsburgh Best Bets & Trends for ATS, Moneyline & Totals
- Pittsburgh has hit the Moneyline in their last 6 games at home (+6.05 Units / 9% ROI)
- Pittsburgh have covered the 1H Spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+5.00 Units / 75% ROI)
- Pittsburgh has hit the 1H Moneyline in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+5.00 Units / 10% ROI)
- Pittsburgh has hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 5 games at home (+4.00 Units / 37% ROI)
- Pittsburgh have covered the Spread in 5 of their last 6 games at home (+3.90 Units / 59% ROI)
We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Virginia players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Virginia Player Prop Bets Today
- Tyler Neville has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Anthony Colandrea has hit the TD Passes Under in his last game (+1.10 Units / 110% ROI)
- Malachi Fields has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Anthony Colandrea has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Anthony Colandrea has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Top NCAAF player prop bets for Pittsburgh players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Pittsburgh Player Prop Best Bets Today
- Konata Mumpfield has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games at home (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Desmond Reid has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Eli Holstein has hit the Passing Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Gavin Bartholomew has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
- Kenny Johnson has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)
Virginia Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Virginia is 5-2 against the spread this college football season (+2.8 Units / 31.82% ROI).
- Virginia is 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.2 Units / -5.12% ROI
- Virginia is 3-5 when betting the Over for -2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI
- Virginia is 5-3 when betting the Under for +1.7 Units / 19.32% ROI
Pittsburgh Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Pitt is 6-2 against the spread this college football season (+3.8 Units / 43.18% ROI).
- Pittsburgh is 7-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +6.1 Units / 8.48% ROI
- Pittsburgh is 4-4 when betting the Over for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI
- Pittsburgh is 4-4 when betting the Under for -0.4 Units / -4.55% ROI
Virginia: Keys to the Game vs. Pittsburgh
Virginia is winless (0-4) when not forcing a fumble this season– T-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .535
Virginia is 1-10 (.091) when not forcing a fumble since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .522
Virginia is 6-8 (.429) when rushing more than 30 times since the 2023 season– 5th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .675
Virginia is 5-12 (.294) when allowing an average of more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-28th-worst in FBS; Average: .449
Pittsburgh: Keys to the Game vs. Virginia
Pittsburgh is 7-1 (.875) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-8th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .654
Pittsburgh is 7-1 (.875) when rushing for 120 or more yards since the 2023 season– 19th-best in FBS; Average: .671
Pittsburgh is 7-1 (.875) when rushing at least 4 yards in a play 10 or more times this season– T-9th-best in FBS; Average: .590
Pittsburgh is 5-10 (.333) when averaging less than 5 yards per rush since the 2023 season– T-14th-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: .492
Matchup Notes for Virginia vs. Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh’s TEs has 38 receptions in 8 games (4.8 per game) this season — 5th-best among ACC TEs. Virginia’s defense has allowed 21.0 receptions per game this season — T-3rd-worst among ACC defenses.
Pittsburgh’s TEs has 38 receptions in 8 games (4.8 per game) this season — 5th-best among ACC TEs. Virginia’s defense has allowed 21.0 receptions per game this season — T-21st-worst among FBS defenses.
Pittsburgh’s offense has thrown for 2,329 passing yards in 8 games (291.1 YPG) this season — 17th-best among FBS offenses. Virginia’s defense has allowed 275.1 passing yards per game this season — 9th-worst among FBS defenses.
Virginia’s WRs has 308 receptions in 20 games (15.4 per game) since the 2023 season — T-25th-best among FBS WRs. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed just 11.6 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.
Virginia’s offense has thrown for 2,120 passing yards in 8 games (265.0 YPG) this season — 32nd-best among FBS offenses. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 261.9 passing yards per game this season — 4th-worst among ACC defenses.
Virginia’s offense has thrown for 2,120 passing yards in 8 games (265.0 YPG) this season — 32nd-best among FBS offenses. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 261.9 passing yards per game this season — 18th-worst among FBS defenses.
Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends
Virginia’s WRs has 308 receptions in 20 games (15.4 per game) since the 2023 season — T-25th-best among FBS WRs. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed just 11.6 receptions per game to WRs since the 2023 season — T-34th-best among FBS defenses.
Virginia’s offense has thrown for 2,120 passing yards in 8 games (265.0 YPG) this season — 32nd-best among FBS offenses. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 261.9 passing yards per game this season — 4th-worst among ACC defenses.
Virginia Skill Players have averaged a touchdown every 5.0 receptions (20 Rec/4 TDs) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-worst Receptions Per TD among Power Conference Teams; Average: 2.1
Virginia’s offense has thrown for 2,120 passing yards in 8 games (265.0 YPG) this season — 32nd-best among FBS offenses. Pittsburgh’s defense has allowed 261.9 passing yards per game this season — 18th-worst among FBS defenses.
Virginia Skill Players have caught 8 touchdown passes in the 4th quarter this season– T-2nd-most among FBS Teams
Pittsburgh Offensive Stats & Trends
Pittsburgh’s TEs has 38 receptions in 8 games (4.8 per game) this season — 5th-best among ACC TEs. Virginia’s defense has allowed 21.0 receptions per game this season — T-3rd-worst among ACC defenses.
Pittsburgh RBs have picked up first downs on 5 receptions in the Red Zone this season– most among FBS Teams
Pittsburgh RBs have averaged 9.0 yards from scrimmage per touch (524 yards / 58 touches) on 2nd down this season– best among FBS Teams; Average: 5.5
Pittsburgh RBs have caught 4 touchdown passes in the Red Zone this season– T-most among FBS Teams
Pittsburgh’s TEs has 38 receptions in 8 games (4.8 per game) this season — 5th-best among ACC TEs. Virginia’s defense has allowed 21.0 receptions per game this season — T-21st-worst among FBS defenses.
Virginia Cavaliers Defensive Stats & Trends
Virginia has averaged a sack every 28.0 pass attempts (645 Pass Attempts/23 Sacks) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 14.5
Virginia has sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (23/645) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst in FBS; Average: 7%
Virginia averaged a sack every 34.3 pass attempts (377 Pass Attempts/11 Sacks) in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 13.8
Virginia has averaged a sack every 28.0 pass attempts (645 Pass Attempts/23 Sacks) since the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.0
Virginia sacked opposing QBs on just 3% of pass attempts (11/377) in the 2023 season– 2nd-worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%
Pittsburgh Panthers Defensive Stats & Trends
Pittsburgh has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 23 of 107 attempts (21%) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– worst among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9%
Pittsburgh has allowed passes of 20+ yards on 23 of 107 attempts (21%) on 3rd and long since the 2023 season– worst in FBS; Average: 9%
Pittsburgh allowed passes of 20+ yards on 10 of 47 attempts (21%) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– T-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 9%
Pittsburgh has allowed first downs on 33% of rush attempts on 3rd and short this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 60%
Pittsburgh allowed passes of 20+ yards on 10 of 47 attempts (21%) on 3rd and long in the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: 9%
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