Washington vs Penn State Prediction, Odds & Best Prop Bets – NCAAF, Week 11

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Penn State quarterback Drew Allar (15) runs with the ball against Rutgers during the second half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Nov. 19, 2022, in Piscataway, N.J. Penn State won 55-10. (AP Photo/Adam Hunger)
(AP Photo/Adam Hunger)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Nov 05, 2024, 3:44 PM
  • Penn State is a -13.5 point favorite vs. Washington
  • Washington vs. Penn State Total (Over/Under): 46.5 points
  • TV Channel: PEAC

The Washington Huskies (5-4) visit Beaver Stadium to take on the Penn State Nittany Lions (7-1) on Nov. 9 in University Park, PA. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00pm EST.

Penn State is a betting favorite in Week 11, with the spread sitting at -13.5 (-115).

The Washington vs. Penn State Over/Under is 46.5 total points.

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Washington vs. Penn State Odds, Spread, Over/Under:

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Washington+13.5 -10546.5 -110+425
Penn State -13.5 -11546.5 -110-600

Washington vs Penn State Prediction:

The winning team model predicts Penn State will win this game with 83.1% confidence, based on game simulations, offensive & defensive matchups and recent game results.

This winning team prediction factors in up-to-date player injuries for both Washington and Penn State, key player performances this season and recent team trends.

Washington vs Penn State Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Penn State will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

This prediction against the spread factors in ATS performances for both teams, opening and current betting lines plus public and sharp money already wagered on this matchup.


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  • Washington has hit the Game Total Under in 11 of their last 15 games (+6.60 Units / 40% ROI)
  • Washington has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 14 games (+5.25 Units / 10% ROI)
  • Washington has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 7 of their last 12 games (+1.25 Units / 9% ROI)
  • Washington has hit the 1H Game Total Under in 3 of their last 5 away games (+0.85 Units / 16% ROI)
  • Penn State has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.70 Units / 43% ROI)
  • Penn State has hit the Moneyline in 9 of their last 12 games (+4.80 Units / 0% ROI)
  • Penn State has hit the 1Q Game Total Under in 6 of their last 11 games (+1.40 Units / 11% ROI)

We’ve highlighted some favorite college football player prop bets for Washington players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Washington Player Prop Bets Today

  • Jonah Coleman has hit the Rushing Yards Over in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Giles Jackson has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Denzel Boston has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Jonah Coleman has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Keleki Latu has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last game (+1.00 Units / 83% ROI)

Top NCAAF player prop bets for Penn State players, looking at profitable historical betting trends:

Best Penn State Player Prop Best Bets Today

  • Harrison Wallace III has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 4 games (+4.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Nicholas Singleton has hit the Rushing Yards Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Nicholas Singleton has hit the Receiving Yards Over in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 83% ROI)
  • Tyler Warren has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 78% ROI)
  • Julian Fleming has hit the Receiving Yards Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 78% ROI)

Washington Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Washington is 4-4 against the spread this college football season (-0.45 Units / -4.52% ROI).

  • Washington is 4-4 when betting on the Moneyline for -1.2 Units / -3.29% ROI
  • Washington is 2-7 when betting the Over for -5.7 Units / -57.58% ROI
  • Washington is 7-2 when betting the Under for +4.8 Units / 48.48% ROI

Penn State Against the Spread (ATS) Record

Penn State is 3-5 against the spread this college football season (-2.5 Units / -28.41% ROI).

  • Penn State is 7-1 when betting on the Moneyline for +6 Units / 0.44% ROI
  • Penn State is 2-6 when betting the Over for -4.6 Units / -52.27% ROI
  • Penn State is 6-2 when betting the Under for +3.8 Units / 43.18% ROI

Washington: Keys to the Game vs. Penn State

Washington is undefeated (18-0) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-best in FBS; Average: .752

Washington is 15-5 (.750) when sacking the QB less than 3 times since the 2023 season– T-5th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .482

Washington is 18-2 (.900) when converting 55% or more of its red zone chances into touchdowns since the 2023 season– T-5th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .677

Washington is 12-3 (.800) when having a turnover margin within one of the opposing team since the 2023 season– T-11th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .598

Penn State: Keys to the Game vs. Washington

Penn State is 12-1 (.923) when making 3 or more explosive runs in a game since the 2023 season– T-3rd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .679

Penn State is 16-1 (.941) when scoring 22 or more points since the 2023 season– T-9th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .785

Penn State is 12-2 (.857) when not losing a fumble since the 2023 season– T-12th-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: .660

Penn State is 14-4 (.778) when averaging more than 5 yards on first down plays since the 2023 season– T-20th-best in FBS; Average: .607

Matchup Notes for Washington vs. Penn State

Penn State’s WRs has 191 receptions in 21 games (just 9.1 per game) since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among Power 5 WRs. Washington’s defense has allowed 19.7 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Penn State’s WRs has 191 receptions in 21 games (just 9.1 per game) since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among Power 5 WRs. Washington’s defense has allowed 19.7 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 35th-worst among FBS defenses.

Penn State’s WRs has 191 receptions in 21 games (just 9.1 per game) since the 2023 season — 12th-worst among FBS WRs. Washington’s defense has allowed 19.7 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Washington’s WRs has 409 receptions in 24 games (17.0 per game) since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among Big Ten WRs. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 16.0 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among Big Ten defenses.

Washington has 598 receptions in 24 games (24.9 per game) since the 2023 season — 5th-best among Power 5 skill players. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 16.0 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among P5 defenses.

Washington’s WRs has gained 1,734 yards on 146 receptions (just 11.9 YPR) this season — T-23rd-worst among FBS WRs. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 10.2 Yards Per Reception this season — T-13th-best among FBS defenses.

Washington Offensive Stats & Trends

Washington’s WRs has 409 receptions in 24 games (17.0 per game) since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among Big Ten WRs. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 16.0 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among Big Ten defenses.

Washington has 598 receptions in 24 games (24.9 per game) since the 2023 season — 5th-best among Power 5 skill players. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 16.0 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-best among P5 defenses.

Washington’s WRs has gained 1,734 yards on 146 receptions (just 11.9 YPR) this season — T-23rd-worst among FBS WRs. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 10.2 Yards Per Reception this season — T-13th-best among FBS defenses.

Washington has 598 receptions in 24 games (24.9 per game) since the 2023 season — 4th-best among Big Ten skill players. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 16.0 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 2nd-best among Big Ten defenses.

Washington’s TEs has gained 1,317 yards on 110 receptions (12.0 YPR) since the 2023 season — T-3rd-best among Big Ten TEs. Penn State’s defense has allowed just 9.6 Yards Per Reception to TEs since the 2023 season — T-18th-best among FBS defenses.

Penn State Offensive Stats & Trends

Penn State WRs have averaged 41.5 yards per reception (83 yards/2 catches) on 3rd and long this season– 2nd-best among FBS Teams; Average: 14.6

Penn State WRs have averaged 41.5 yards per reception (83 yards/2 catches) on 3rd and long this season– best among Big Ten Teams; Average: 14.1

Penn State WRs have averaged 41.5 yards per reception (83 yards/2 catches) on 3rd and long this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 14.9

Penn State’s WRs has 191 receptions in 21 games (just 9.1 per game) since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among Power 5 WRs. Washington’s defense has allowed 19.7 receptions per game since the 2023 season — 3rd-worst among Big Ten defenses.

Penn State TEs have averaged 7.4 receptions per game (59/8) this season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 3.7

Washington Huskies Defensive Stats & Trends

Washington has allowed a Completion Pct of just 51% (128 completions/252 attempts) this season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 62%

Washington has allowed a Completion Pct of just 22% (5 completions/23 attempts) in close and late situations this season– best in FBS; Average: 58%

Washington has allowed opponents to catch just 128 of 249 passes (51% Reception Pct) this season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 62%

Washington opponents has averaged 5.8 Passing Attempts per TD (92 Pass Attempts/16 Passing TDs) in the Red Zone since the 2023 season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 3.7

Washington has sacked opposing QBs on just 4% of pass attempts (36/831) since the 2023 season– worst in the Big Ten; Average: 7%

Penn State Nittany Lions Defensive Stats & Trends

Penn State has allowed 2 rushing TDs on 26 carries (13 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– 2nd-best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 4.8

Penn State has allowed 2 rushing TDs on 26 carries (13 Carries Per TD) in the Red Zone this season– 3rd-best in FBS; Average: 4.6

Penn State has sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (67/577) since the 2023 season– best in the Big Ten; Average: 7%

Penn State has sacked opposing QBs on 12% of pass attempts (67/577) since the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%

Penn State sacked opposing QBs on 15% of pass attempts (50/340) in the 2023 season– best among Power Conference Teams; Average: 7%


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.