Duke vs Virginia Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Today – NCAAB, Feb. 11

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Virginia head coach Tony Bennett reacts to a call during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Wake Forest in Winston-Salem, N.C., Saturday, Jan. 21, 2023.
(AP Photo/Chuck Burton)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Feb 11, 2023, 2:28 PM
  • Virginia (18-4) are -6.5 point favorites vs Duke (17-7)
  • Total (Over/Under): 126.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN

The Duke Blue Devils (17-7) visit John Paul Jones Arena to take on the Virginia Cavaliers (18-4) on Feb. 11. Tip off is scheduled for 4:00pm EST in Charlottesville.

Virginia is the betting favorite in this game, with the spread sitting at -6.5 (-105).

The Duke vs. Virginia Over/Under is 126.5 total points.

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Duke vs. Virginia Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Duke+6.5 -115O 126.5 -110+200
Virginia -6.5 -105U 126.5 -110-250

Duke vs Virginia Prediction for Today’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Virginia will win this game with 64.7% confidence.

Duke vs Virginia Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Duke will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Duke and Virginia, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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  • Duke has hit the 1H Moneyline in 34 of their last 50 games (+10.75 Units / 7% ROI)
  • Duke has hit the Game Total Under in 15 of their last 22 away games (+7.30 Units / 30% ROI)
  • Duke have covered the 1H Spread in 14 of their last 22 away games (+5.25 Units / 21% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 41 games (+14.85 Units / 13% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the 1H Moneyline in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.35 Units / 23% ROI)
  • Virginia has hit the Team Total Under in 10 of their last 14 games at home (+5.55 Units / 35% ROI)
  • Virginia have covered the Spread in their last 4 games at home (+4.00 Units / 91% ROI)
  • Virginia have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 11 games (+3.65 Units / 30% ROI)

Duke Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Duke has gone 9-15 against the spread this college basketball season (-7.5 Units / -28.41% ROI).

  • 12-7 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.7 Units / 2.06% ROI
  • 9-15 when betting the Over for -7.5 Units / -28.41% ROI
  • 15-9 when betting the Under for +5.1 Units / 19.32% ROI

Virginia Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Virginia has gone 9-12 against the spread this college basketball season (-4.2 Units / 0% ROI).

  • 14-4 when betting on the Moneyline for +8.75 Units / 11.48% ROI
  • 12-10 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 4.13% ROI
  • 10-12 when betting the Under for -3.2 Units / -13.22% ROI

Duke Offensive Stats & Trends:

Duke is shooting 42% (275/649) in the second half this season — 2nd lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 45%

Duke has 661 assists at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — most among ACC Teams

Duke has an eFG% of 54% since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 26th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 51%

Duke is shooting 47% (1,732/3,660) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 16th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 44%

Virginia Offensive Stats & Trends:

Virginia has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.8 (331 assists/ 188 TOs) this season — best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.1

Virginia has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.8 (331 assists/ 188 TOs) this season — best among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 1.1

Virginia has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.8 (331 assists/ 188 TOs) this season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 1.2

Virginia has an assist to turnover ratio of 1.8 (331 assists/ 188 TOs) this season — best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 1.2

Duke Defensive Stats & Trends:

Duke has averaged 27.2 defensive rebounds per game (1,660 rebounds/61 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 17th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 24.4

Duke has averaged 5.3 steals per game (117 steals/22 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.1

Duke has allowed opponents to shoot 42% (779/1,846) in the second half since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 2nd best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 44%

Duke has allowed opponents to shoot 43% (551/1,284) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — 4th best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 45%

Virginia Defensive Stats & Trends:

Virginia has averaged 23.4 defensive rebounds per game (1,287 rebounds/55 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 4th lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 25.7

Virginia has averaged 23.4 defensive rebounds per game (1,287 rebounds/55 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 4th lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 25.7

Virginia has averaged 6.7 steals per game (134 steals/20 games) this season — 5th best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.2

Virginia has averaged 6.7 steals per game (134 steals/20 games) this season — 5th best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.2


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.