- The Twins are -125 favorites vs the Mariners
- Mariners vs Twins Over / Under today: 6.5 Runs
- Mariners / Twins TV Channel: BSNO | RTNW | MLBN
The Seattle Mariners (+105) visit Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins (-125) on Thursday, May 9, 2024. First pitch is scheduled for 1:10pm EDT in Minneapolis, MN.
This season, the Mariners are 20-17 against the spread (ATS), while the Twins are 19-17 ATS.
Mariners vs Twins Starting Pitchers Today:
- Mariners starting pitcher: Logan Gilbert 3-0, 1.70 ERA
- Twins starting pitcher: Pablo Lopez 3-2, 4.34 ERA
Mariners vs. Twins Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Spread | Over / Under | Moneyline | |
| Mariners | +1.5 -210 | O 7 -120 | +105 |
| Twins | -1.5 +170 | U 7 +100 | -125 |
Mariners vs Twins Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Twins will win Thursday‘s MLB game with 53.4% confidence, factoring in game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Mariners players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Mariners Player Prop Bets Today:
- Julio Rodriguez has hit the Total Bases Under in 25 of his last 35 games (+12.15 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 25 of his last 36 games (+11.40 Units / 25% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the Runs Under in 26 of his last 36 games (+11.35 Units / 20% ROI)
- Jorge Polanco has hit the RBIs Under in 13 of his last 14 away games (+11.05 Units / 38% ROI)
- Ty France has hit the Singles Under in 18 of his last 25 games (+8.90 Units / 28% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Twins players for Thursday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Twins Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Hits Under in 11 of his last 13 games (+12.80 Units / 63% ROI)
- Ryan Jeffers has hit the Home Runs Over in 4 of his last 10 games (+12.40 Units / 124% ROI)
- Willi Castro has hit the Total Bases Over in 15 of his last 20 games (+11.40 Units / 42% ROI)
- Alex Kirilloff has hit the Singles Under in 17 of his last 23 games (+10.75 Units / 41% ROI)
- Trevor Larnach has hit the RBIs Over in 9 of his last 14 games (+10.65 Units / 76% ROI)
Mariners Best Bets Today:
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 24 of their last 40 away games (+12.89 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have covered the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 28 of their last 42 away games (+12.17 Units / 25% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Over in 18 of their last 26 away games (+10.55 Units / 37% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the Moneyline in 27 of their last 43 away games (+9.35 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Seattle Mariners have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 25 of their last 40 away games (+8.69 Units / 19% ROI)
Twins Best Bets Today:
- The Minnesota Twins have covered the Run Line in 31 of their last 50 games (+14.40 Units / 24% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Game Total Over in 47 of their last 78 games (+13.95 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Team Total Over in 48 of their last 77 games (+13.50 Units / 15% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 25 of their last 40 games at home (+7.65 Units / 16% ROI)
- The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 45 games at home (+2.85 Units / 4% ROI)
Mariners Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Mariners are 18-19 against the Run Line (-2.85 Units / -5.72% ROI).
- 20-17 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.15 Units / -0.34% ROI
- 9-26 when betting on the total runs Over for -19.35 Units / -49.11% ROI
- 26-9 when betting on the total runs Under for +16.05 Units / 40.23% ROI
Twins Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this season, the Twins are 19-17 against the Run Line (+1 Units / 2.12% ROI).
- 21-15 when betting on the Moneyline for +1.65 Units / 3.36% ROI
- 18-15 when betting on the total runs Over for +1.55 Units / 4% ROI
- 15-18 when betting on the total runs Under for -4.65 Units / -12.14% ROI
Twins vs Mariners Home Run Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +425 | 0.5 -650 |
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +450 | 0.5 -650 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +500 | 0.5 -700 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 +550 | 0.5 -800 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +575 | 0.5 -900 |
Twins vs Mariners Total Hits Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 -210 | 0.5 +160 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Ryan Jeffers (MIN) | 0.5 -200 | 0.5 +150 |
| Jose Miranda (MIN) | 0.5 -190 | 0.5 +145 |
| Josh Rojas (SEA) | 0.5 -185 | 0.5 +135 |
Twins vs Mariners RBI Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Max Kepler (MIN) | 0.5 +160 | 0.5 -210 |
| Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.5 +190 | 0.5 -250 |
| Julio Rodriguez (SEA) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Carlos Santana (MIN) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -300 |
| Trevor Larnach (MIN) | 0.5 +210 | 0.5 -275 |
Twins vs Mariners Strikeout Prop Bets Today
| Over | Under | |
|---|---|---|
| Logan Gilbert (SEA) | 6.5 +100 | 6.5 -135 |
| Pablo Lopez (MIN) | 8.5 +135 | 8.5 -175 |
Mariners Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Logan Gilbert has struck out 36% (31/87) of left-handed batters he faced this season — 3rd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 23% — 96th Percentile.
Opponents have a two strike miss rate of 36% (39/107) against Logan Gilbert this season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 25% — 98th Percentile.
Logan Gilbert has allowed an OBP of just .215 (177 PA’s) this season — 2nd best among among AL Starters; League Avg: .293 — 97th Percentile.
Opponents are hitting just .199 (66-for-331) against Logan Gilbert when going through the lineup the second time in a game since last season — 2nd best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .241 — 97th Percentile.
Twins Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Pablo Lopez has not walked any of the 63 batters that he has faced when going through the lineup the first time in a game this season — tied for best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 7% — 100th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 38% (195/518) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count since the 2022 season — highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 143 total IP; League Avg: 25% — 100th Percentile.
Opponents have a groundball rate of 58% (22/38) against Pablo Lopez in two-strike counts this season — 2nd highest among among AL Starters; League Avg: 44% — 97th Percentile.
Opposing hitters have a chase rate of 39% (22/56) against Pablo Lopez when he’s behind in the count this season — highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 24% — 100th Percentile.
Mariners Keys to the Game vs. the Twins
The Mariners are 91-15 (.858) when they’ve had 10 or more hits since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .733.
The Mariners are 48-6 (.889) when they’ve had 5 or more XBH since the 2022 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .794.
The Mariners are 149-14 (.914) when leading entering the 7th inning since the 2022 season — 3rd best in MLB; League Avg: .868.
The Mariners are 92-2 (.979) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — tied for 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .947.
Twins Keys to the Game vs. the Mariners
The Twins are 21-61 (.256) when trailing entering the 7th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .144.
The Twins are 41-13 (.759) when they’ve scored in the first inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .615.
The Twins are 15-72 (.172) when trailing entering the 8th inning since the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .102.
The Twins are 87-1 (.989) when leading entering the 9th inning since the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: .947.
Mariners Hitting Stats & Trends
Mariners hitters have 510 strikeouts in 1,959 PA’s (26%) against LHP since last season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
The Mariners are batting just .227 at home since the 2022 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .248.
Mariners hitters have 296 strikeouts in 1,021 PA’s (29%) against RHP this season — highest in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
The Mariners are batting just .204 at home this season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .239.
Twins Hitting Stats & Trends
The Twins are batting just .151 with two-strikes since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .171.
Twins hitters have an OPS of .831 (458 PA’s) in innings 7-9 this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .677.
Twins hitters have an OBP of .341 (317 PA’s) against LHP this season — 5th best in MLB; League Avg: .315.
Twins hitters have 451 strikeouts in 1,826 PA’s (25%) against LHP since last season — 5th highest in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Mariners Pitching Stats & Trends
Mariners pitchers have walked 92 of 1,314 batters (7%) this season — tied for 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have an ERA of 3.25 (916.0 IP) at home since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 4.17.
Mariners pitchers have walked 513 of 7,320 batters (7%) since last season — tied for best in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Mariners pitchers have allowed an OBP of just .222 (329 PA’s) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning this season — best in MLB; League Avg: .306.
Twins Pitching Stats & Trends
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 22%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 26% since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 27% with runners in scoring position this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 21%.
Twins pitchers have a strikeout rate of 28% versus hitters not batting 3-4-5 in the order this season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Twins vs. Mariners Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Zack Weiss (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Jhoan Duran (Minnesota Twins): Oblique, 15-Day IL
- Anthony DeSclafani (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Matt Canterino (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 7-Day IL
- Trevor Larnach (Minnesota Twins): Toe, 7-Day IL
- Royce Lewis (Minnesota Twins): Quadriceps, 10-Day IL
- Max Kepler (Minnesota Twins): Leg, Day-To-Day
- Jovani Moran (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Josh Staumont (Minnesota Twins): Calf, 15-Day IL
- Caleb Thielbar (Minnesota Twins): Hamstring, 15-Day IL
- Justin Topa (Minnesota Twins): Kneecap, 15-Day IL
- Jose De Leon (Minnesota Twins): Elbow, Out
- Josh Winder (Minnesota Twins): Shoulder, 60-Day IL
- Jackson Kowar (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 60-Day IL
- Mitch Garver (Seattle Mariners): Back, Day-To-Day
- Sam Haggerty (Seattle Mariners): Undisclosed, 10-Day IL
- Gregory Santos (Seattle Mariners): Lat, 15-Day IL
- Eduard Bazardo (Seattle Mariners): Shoulder, 15-Day IL
- Bryan Woo (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
- Matt Brash (Seattle Mariners): Elbow, 15-Day IL
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