Florida State vs Louisville Prediction, Odds & Best Bets Today – NCAAB, Feb. 4

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Louisville head coach Kenny Payne argues with a game official during the first half of an NCAA college basketball game against Wake Forest in Louisville, Ky., Saturday, Jan. 7, 2023.
(AP Photo/Timothy D. Easley)
BetMGM Betting @BETMGM Feb 04, 2023, 11:11 AM
  • Florida State (7-16) are -5.5 point favorites vs Louisville (3-19)
  • Total (Over/Under): 143.5 points
  • Watch the game on ESPN2

The Florida State Seminoles (7-16) visit KFC Yum! Center to take on the Louisville Cardinals (3-19) on Feb. 4. Tip off is scheduled for 2:00pm EST in Louisville.

Florida State is the betting favorite in this game, with the spread sitting at -5.5 (-110).

The Florida State vs. Louisville Over/Under is 143.5 total points.

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Florida State vs. Louisville Odds, Spread, Over/Under

SpreadTotal (O/U)Moneyline
Florida State-5.5 -110O 143.5 -110-250
Louisville +5.5 -110U 143.5 -110+200

Florida State vs Louisville Prediction for Today’s Game:

Based on recent trends, the winning team model predicts Florida State will win this game with 62.1% confidence.

Florida State vs Louisville Spread Prediction:

Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the model predicts Louisville will cover the spread with 51.0% confidence.

Both predictions factor in up-to-date player injuries for both Florida State and Louisville, plus offensive & defensive matchups, recent games and key player performances this season.


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  • Florida State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 33 of their last 49 games (+16.55 Units / 31% ROI)
  • Florida State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 4 of their last 8 away games (+6.80 Units / 85% ROI)
  • Florida State has hit the Team Total Over in 14 of their last 22 games (+4.90 Units / 20% ROI)
  • Florida State has hit the Moneyline in 2 of their last 3 away games (+3.55 Units / 118% ROI)
  • Louisville has hit the Game Total Under in 30 of their last 50 games (+9.10 Units / 17% ROI)
  • Louisville has hit the Team Total Under in 12 of their last 17 games (+6.30 Units / 33% ROI)
  • Louisville has hit the 1H Moneyline in 2 of their last 3 games (+2.60 Units / 87% ROI)
  • Louisville have covered the Spread in 6 of their last 10 games (+1.60 Units / 15% ROI)

Florida State Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Florida State has gone 11-12 against the spread this college basketball season (-2.25 Units / -8.88% ROI).

  • 7-16 when betting on the Moneyline for -29.75 Units / -46.74% ROI
  • 12-10 when betting the Over for +1 Units / 3.95% ROI
  • 10-12 when betting the Under for -3.2 Units / -12.65% ROI

Louisville Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)

Louisville has gone 7-15 against the spread this college basketball season (-9.5 Units / -39.26% ROI).

  • 3-18 when betting on the Moneyline for -18.9 Units / -43.65% ROI
  • 8-13 when betting the Over for -6.3 Units / -26.03% ROI
  • 13-8 when betting the Under for +4.2 Units / 17.36% ROI

Florida State Offensive Stats & Trends:

Florida State is shooting 44% (574/1,304) this season — 4th lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 45%

Florida State has an eFG% of 49% since the start of the 2021-22 season — tied for 41st lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 51%

Florida State has averaged 1.23 points per shot (1,602 points/1,304 shots) this season — tied for 4th lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 1.25

Florida State is shooting 73% from the free throw line (188/259) in the second half this season — 5th lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 74%

Louisville Offensive Stats & Trends:

Louisville has an assist to turnover ratio of 0.6 (198 assists/ 357 TOs) this season — lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 1.2

Louisville has an assist to turnover ratio of 0.6 (198 assists/ 357 TOs) this season — lowest among Power Conference teams; League Avg: 1.1

Louisville has averaged 9.0 assists per game (198 assists/22 games) this season — lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 13.5

Louisville has averaged 7.8 turnovers per game (172 turnovers/22 games) in the second half this season — highest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 5.6

Florida State Defensive Stats & Trends:

Florida State has averaged 7.4 steals per game (228 steals/31 games) at home since the start of the 2021-22 season — 4th best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.6

Florida State has 398 steals since the start of the 2021-22 season — 4th most among ACC Teams

Florida State has averaged 7.4 steals per game (398 steals/54 games) since the start of the 2021-22 season — 3rd best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.4

Florida State has averaged 7.4 steals per game (170 steals/23 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — 2nd best among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.1

Louisville Defensive Stats & Trends:

Louisville has averaged 5.0 steals per game (111 steals/22 games) this season — 2nd lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.2

Louisville has averaged 5.4 steals per game (118 steals/22 games) on the road since the start of the 2021-22 season — 4th lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 6.1

Louisville has forced 11.6 turnovers per game (255 turnovers/22 games) this season — tied for 4th lowest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 12.1

Louisville has allowed 74.5 points per game (1,638 points/22 games) this season — 2nd highest among ACC Teams; League Avg: 69.6


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Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.

Our BetMGM betting authors are experts who focus on individual game matchups & player prop bets with an emphasis on betting odds, lines & predictions.