The Cleveland Guardians (+145) visit Goodyear Ballpark to take on the Cincinnati Reds (-175) on Sunday, March 10, 2024. First pitch is for this Spring Training game is scheduled for 4:05pm EDT in Goodyear, AZ.
This season, the Guardians are 3-7 against the spread (ATS), while the Reds are 4-4 ATS.
Guardians vs. Reds Odds, Run Line, Over/Under & Moneyline
| Moneyline | |
| Guardians | +145 |
| Reds | -175 |
Guardians vs Reds Prediction for Today’s Game
Based on recent trends the model predicts the Reds will win Sunday‘s matchup with 56.3% confidence, based on game simulations, recent player performances, starting pitchers and injuries.
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We’ve highlighted some favorite MLB player prop bets for Guardians players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Guardians Player Prop Bets Today:
- Myles Straw has hit the Runs Under in his last 5 games (+5.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Josh Naylor has hit the Hits Over in 4 of his last 5 games (+3.95 Units / 42% ROI)
- Jose Tena has hit the Runs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 38% ROI)
- Will Brennan has hit the RBIs Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- David Fry has hit the RBIs Under in his last 2 away games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
And here are some favorite MLB player prop bets for Reds players for Sunday‘s game, looking at profitable historical betting trends:
Best Reds Player Prop Best Bets Today:
- Curt Casali has hit the Singles Over in his last 2 games at home (+3.40 Units / 170% ROI)
- Elly De La Cruz has hit the Stolen Bases Under in his last 3 games (+3.00 Units / 36% ROI)
- Spencer Steer has hit the Hits Over in his last 2 games (+2.85 Units / 76% ROI)
- Curt Casali has hit the Runs Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
- Christian Encarnacio has hit the Hits Under in his last 2 games (+2.00 Units / 40% ROI)
Guardians Best Bets Today:
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Game Total Under in 85 of their last 146 games (+21.85 Units / 14% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have covered the Run Line in 34 of their last 60 away games (+6.30 Units / 8% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 20 of their last 34 games (+4.72 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Team Total Over in 22 of their last 39 away games (+2.24 Units / 5% ROI)
Reds Best Bets Today:
- The Cincinnati Reds have covered the Run Line in 96 of their last 161 games (+20.80 Units / 10% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 140 games (+17.50 Units / 11% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the Game Total Under in 28 of their last 38 games at home (+17.15 Units / 41% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 46 of their last 81 games at home (+10.93 Units / 12% ROI)
- The Cincinnati Reds have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Moneyline in 5 of their last 7 games at home (+2.97 Units / 33% ROI)
Guardians Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Guardians are 4-6 against the Run Line (-3.38 Units / -24.11% ROI).
- 3-7 when betting on the Moneyline for -4.64 Units / -38.28% ROI
- 5-4 when betting on the total runs Over for +0.63 Units / 5.85% ROI
- 4-5 when betting on the total runs Under for -1.68 Units / -14.96% ROI
Reds Against the Spread (ATS) Record
Against the spread this Spring Training, the Reds are 4-4 against the Run Line (-0.9 Units / -8.26% ROI).
- 3-3 when betting on the Moneyline for -0.05 Units / -0.52% ROI
- 4-4 when betting on the total runs Over for -0.6 Units / -6.76% ROI
- 4-4 when betting on the total runs Under for -0.53 Units / -6.07% ROI
Guardians Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Xzavion Curry had a strikeout rate of just 35% (67/189) with two-strikes in the 2023 season — 5th lowest among in AL; League Avg: 46% — fifth Percentile.
Xzavion Curry struck out just 14% (31/217) of right-handed batters he faced in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest among in AL; League Avg: 25% — third Percentile.
Right-handed hitters had a groundball rate of just 26% (45/173) against Xzavion Curry in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest among in AL; League Avg: 44% — second Percentile.
Xzavion Curry had a strikeout rate of just 17% (67/404) in the 2023 season — 5th lowest among in AL; League Avg: 25% — fifth Percentile.
Reds Starting Pitcher Stats & Trends
Nick Lodolo’s lowest spin rate on curveballs since last season is 2353.0 RPM — 5th highest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 1541.2
The hardest ball hit off of Nick Lodolo since last season was just 112.0 MPH — tied for 7th hardest in MLB among starting pitchers with at least 129 total IP; League Avg: 114.9
Guardians Keys to the Game vs. the Reds
The Guardians are 34-114 (.230) when trailing entering the 7th inning since last season — best in MLB; League Avg: .129.
The Guardians were just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 7th inning in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
The Guardians were 18-57 (.240) when trailing entering the 7th inning in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .141.
The Guardians were just 5-15 (.250) when tied entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .500.
Reds Keys to the Game vs. the Guardians
The Reds are just 48-38 (.558) when they’ve hit 2 or more home runs since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .697.
The Reds are just 40-46 (.465) when they’ve scored in the first inning since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .637.
The Reds were just 24-12 (.667) when they had 5 or more XBH in the 2023 season — 3rd lowest in MLB; League Avg: .790.
The Reds were 13-63 (.171) when trailing entering the 8th inning in the 2023 season — 2nd best in MLB; League Avg: .100.
Guardians Hitting Stats & Trends
Guardians hitters put just 34% of balls in play to the left side of the field in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 39%.
Guardians hitters had a = 95 mph’>Hard-Hit Rate of just 34% against RHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 40%.
Guardians hitters struck out just 1,142 times in 6,096 PA’s (19%) in the 2023 season — best in MLB; League Avg: 23%.
Guardians hitters slugged just .367 against LHP in the 2023 season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: .419.
Reds Hitting Stats & Trends
The Reds have a winning percentage of just 44% at home since last season — 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 53%.
The Reds have won just 57% of games in which they have scored first at home since last season — lowest in MLB; League Avg: 72%.
Reds hitters had a swing rate of just 45% in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 48%.
The Reds have hit 1,462 balls in play with an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater in the 2023 season — 4th fewest in MLB.
Guardians Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 41% against Guardians pitchers in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Guardians pitchers won only 19% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
The Guardians pitchers have allowed the 28th hardest ball in play hit (119.2 MPH) in the 2023 season (; League Avg: 117.2).
Guardians pitchers have allowed an exit velocity over 110 MPH 100 times since last season — tied for 2nd fewest in MLB.
Reds Pitching Stats & Trends
Opponents had a groundball rate of just 40% against Reds pitchers in the 2023 season — 2nd lowest in MLB; League Avg: 43%.
Reds pitchers walked 613 of 6,310 batters (10%) in the 2023 season — tied for 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 9%.
Reds pitchers walked 140 of 1,443 batters (10%) when facing the leadoff batter in the inning in the 2023 season — 4th highest in MLB; League Avg: 8%.
Reds pitchers won 46% of games in which they allowed their opponent to score in three different innings on the road in the 2023 season — 2nd highest in MLB; League Avg: 27%.
Reds vs. Guardians Injuries Tonight That May Affect Prop Bets
- Sam Moll (Cincinnati Reds): Shoulder, Day-To-Day
- Noelvi Marte (Cincinnati Reds): Hamstring, Out
- Jonathan India (Cincinnati Reds): Foot, Day-To-Day
- Matt McLain (Cincinnati Reds): Oblique, Out
- Nick Lodolo (Cincinnati Reds): Lower Leg, Day-To-Day
- Reiver Sanmartin (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Alex Young (Cincinnati Reds): Back, Day-To-Day
- Emilio Pagan (Cincinnati Reds): Abdomen, Out
- Connor Overton (Cincinnati Reds): Elbow, Out
- Daniel Espino (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- Gabriel Arias (Cleveland Guardians): Wrist, Out
- Logan Allen (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
- James Karinchak (Cleveland Guardians): Shoulder, Out
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