- Missouri State (10-9) is a -3.5 point favorite vs Valparaiso (13-6)
- Total (Over/Under): 140.5 points
- Missouri State / Valparaiso TV channel: ESPN+
The Missouri State Bears (10-9) visit Athletics-Recreation Center to take on the Valparaiso Beacons (13-6) on Jan. 27. Tip off is scheduled for 4:00pm EST in Valparaiso, IN.
Missouri State is the betting favorite in this game, with the spread sitting at -3.5 (-110).
The Missouri State vs. Valparaiso Over/Under is 140.5 total points.
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Missouri State vs. Valparaiso Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Spread | Total (O/U) | Moneyline | |
| Missouri State | -3.5 -110 | O 140.5 -110 | -165 |
| Valparaiso | +3.5 -110 | U 140.5 -110 | +140 |
Missouri State vs Valparaiso Prediction for Today:
The winning team model predicts Missouri State will win this college basketball game with 61.0% confidence, based on game simulations, player injuries, key player performances and recent matchups.
Missouri State vs Valparaiso Spread Prediction:
Based on recent against-the-spread trends, the spread model predicts Valparaiso will cover the spread with 58.4% confidence for today’s game.
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Missouri State Basketball Best Bets Today:
- Missouri State has hit the Moneyline in 15 of their last 29 games (+5.80 Units / 8% ROI)
- Missouri State has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 18 of their last 30 games (+4.15 Units / 12% ROI)
- Missouri State has hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 15 away games (+2.40 Units / 15% ROI)
- Missouri State has hit the 1H Moneyline in 17 of their last 30 games (+1.40 Units / 2% ROI)
Valparaiso Basketball Best Bets Today:
- Valparaiso has hit the 1H Moneyline in 10 of their last 29 games (+12.70 Units / 37% ROI)
- Valparaiso have covered the Spread in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.90 Units / 18% ROI)
- Valparaiso has hit the 1H Game Total Over in 18 of their last 29 games (+5.50 Units / 17% ROI)
- Valparaiso has hit the Team Total Over in 16 of their last 29 games (+0.90 Units / 3% ROI)
- Valparaiso has hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 15 games at home (+0.30 Units / 2% ROI)
Missouri State Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)
Missouri State has a 9-9 record against the spread this college basketball season (-0.9 Units / -4.3% ROI).
- 9-9 when betting on the Moneyline for +3.95 Units / 8.36% ROI
- 8-11 when betting the Over for -4.1 Units / -19.62% ROI
- 11-8 when betting the Under for +2.2 Units / 10.53% ROI
Valparaiso Basketball Against the Spread Record (ATS)
Valparaiso has a 13-6 record against the spread this college basketball season (+6.4 Units / 30.55% ROI).
- 5-12 when betting on the Moneyline for -5.15 Units / -26.08% ROI
- 8-11 when betting the Over for -4.1 Units / -19.52% ROI
- 11-8 when betting the Under for +2.3 Units / 11.06% ROI
Missouri State Offensive Stats & Trends:
Missouri State has 587 defensive rebounds this season — most among Missouri Valley Teams
Missouri State is shooting 32% from three (153/482) this season — tied for 32nd lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 34%
Missouri State has averaged 67.6 points per game (3,513 points/52 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 24th lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 72.5
Missouri State has a 33% free throw rate (379 free throw attempts/1,157 field goal attempts) this season — 2nd highest among Missouri Valley Teams; League Avg: 32%
Valparaiso Offensive Stats & Trends:
Valparaiso has averaged 1.13 points per shot (1,359 points/1,198 shots) this season — tied for 7th lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.25
Valparaiso has an eFG% of 47% this season — tied for 14th lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 51%
Valparaiso has averaged 1.17 points per shot (3,565 points/3,051 shots) since the start of the 2022-23 season — tied for 14th lowest among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 1.24
Valparaiso has averaged 10.9 offensive rebounds per game (218 rebounds/20 games) this season — tied for 38th best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 10.0
Missouri State Defensive Stats & Trends:
Missouri State has allowed an average of 1.12 points per shot (1,403 points/1,258 shots) this season — best among Missouri Valley Teams; League Avg: 1.20
Missouri State has forced 9.6 turnovers per game (191 turnovers/20 games) this season — lowest among Missouri Valley Teams; League Avg: 12.0
Missouri State has allowed opponents to shoot 30% from three (134/440) this season — best among Missouri Valley Teams; League Avg: 33%
Missouri State has averaged 29.4 defensive rebounds per game (587 rebounds/20 games) this season — tied for 3rd best among Division 1 Teams; League Avg: 24.8
Valparaiso Defensive Stats & Trends:
Valparaiso has averaged 5.9 steals per game (308 steals/52 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 5th lowest among Missouri Valley Teams; League Avg: 6.3
Valparaiso has allowed 71.8 points per game (1,437 points/20 games) this season — 4th highest among Missouri Valley Teams; League Avg: 70.2
Valparaiso has forced 11.5 turnovers per game (600 turnovers/52 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 4th lowest among Missouri Valley Teams; League Avg: 12.1
Valparaiso has allowed 72.9 points per game (3,792 points/52 games) since the start of the 2022-23 season — 3rd highest among Missouri Valley Teams; League Avg: 69.3
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